FSU Preview: The Breakdown

Overview

Former UVa coach and recent College Football Hall of Fame inductee George Welsh never liked the term “Big Game.” Well, coach, this is a big game for the Virginia program you built. In fact, this is the first in what Cavalier fans hope will be several of the biggest games in the program’s history this fall.

This game has ACC title and, yes, national title implications. It’s that simple.

Florida State Offense

The saga of Seminole quarterback Chris Rix is well-documented, so there’s no
need to elaborate. The bottom line is that Rix’s inconsistency has caused offensive coordinator Jeff Bowden to reign in the complex, high-flying Seminole offense to a more watered-downed version.

With Rix out of the starting lineup because of a high ankle sprain, Bowden has turned to sophomore Wyatt Sexton. His inexperience has forced the Seminole brain trust to further scale back the offense as FSU relied almost exclusively on the running game to defeat Syracuse last Saturday.

Sexton improved to 2-0 with the win over the Orange, completing 15 of 26 passes for 169 yards in his first road start. He has completed 58 of 92 passes (63%) for 571 yards with four scores and two interceptions this season.

But expect to see Rix in Tallahassee, especially if the Noles fall behind early
or Sexton struggles. Bobby Bowden indicated that had Rix been ready
to play, he would have likely seen action late in the first half against Syracuse.

Historically, FSU has been known as a passing team. But that reputation has
changed recently as the Noles have become a solid, and what some might call
power, running team. Not since Larry Czonka and Jim Kiick roamed the sidelines
has there been a more lethal combination of raw speed and brute strength in the
Sunshine State than junior tailback Leon Washington and sophomore Lorenzo
Booker
.

Washington has totaled 317 rushing yards on just 31 carries (10.2 ypc) over the
last two games. Booker rushed for 85 yards against Syracuse to mark the third
consecutive game in which he gained at least 80. Washington and Booker are currently ranked second and eighth in the conference in rushing, respectively.

Junior B.J. Dean leads the way from the fullback position.

Never at a loss for speed and athleticism at the wideout position, the Noles
have some of the best – 4.3 speedster Craphonso Thorpe (22 catches for 237
yards) and split end Chauncey Stovall (19 catches for 253) who are ranked second
and third in the league in receptions. Dominic Robinson is the
starter when FSU opens in its three-wide set.

Tight end is a concern for the Noles as they prepare for Saturday. The top two
on the depth chart are injured and if neither is available senior
Paul Irons will get the nod.

Florida State is the only team to have at least one offensive lineman
earn All-ACC first-team honors in each of the last 12 seasons. This year’s
addition is loaded with size and includes a mix of experience and youth.

FSU is currently third in the ACC in rushing with 200.2 yards per game and is led
by consensus All-American senior tackle Alex Barron. Barron earned first-team
All-America honors in 2003 and is a candidate for the Outland and Lombardi awards.
Offensive captain Ray Willis has started 29 games over his four-year career, including all five this season at the other tackle spot.

The third senior on the FSU offensive line is guard Bobby Meeks, who has started
the last four games after missing the Miami game with ankle injury. Guard Cory
Niblock
, a member of the 2003 Sporting News All-ACC Freshmen Team, started his
fourth career game vs. Syracuse.

Rimington Award candidate David Castillo returned to the starting lineup vs.
Clemson and mans the center position.

Florida State Defense

The clear strength of this Seminole team is its defense and it begins with a
highly-talented front four. Seniors Chauncey Davis and Eric Moore control the
outside from their end positions. Moore left the UNC game early with a sprained ankle and was held out at Syracuse but is expected to return this week.

On the interior, nose tackle Brodrick Bunkley missed the Syracuse game with a
sprained ankle and is still questionable for Saturday. If the junior is
unavailable, sophomore Clifton Dickson will likely get his second straight starting assignment. Defensive tackle Travis Johnson is fourth
all-time at FSU with 35 tackles for loss and the senior is currently leading
the league in that category.

The Noles lost a lot of experience at the linebacker position but
with two sophomores and a junior in the starting lineup may be a better unit
than the 2003 trio.

Junior A. J. Nicholson is third on the team in tackles for loss and tied for
the team lead in quarterback pressures. Middle linebacker Buster Davis is tied
with Nicholson for the team lead with 31 tackles and six quarterback hurries.

Ernie Sims, a top recruit two years ago, is currently second on the team with 27 stops. Sims offered up some bulletin board material this week, claiming that Heath Miller couldn’t block him and boasting that he would limit the leading Mackey Award candidate to zero catches.

Among the reserve LBs, Sam McGrew had a game-saving pick against Syracuse and has started two games this season, while Marcello Church also will get reps against the ‘Hoos.

The Seminole secondary is led by three seniors, including two at the corners.
Bryant McFadden leads the unit in tackles (14) and pass breakups (5), while Leroy Smith has five career interceptions. Both continue a long line of big-play FSU corners.

Pat Watkins is the lone junior in the defensive backfield at free safety and
leads the team with three interceptions. Hard-hitting Jerome Carter is the rover and defensive captain. Sophomore Antonio Cromartie comes in at corner in
the FSU nickel package.

Florida State Special Teams

Xavier Beitia handles the place-kicking duties and has been one of the top
three kickers in the ACC over the last two seasons. Chris Hall is FSU’s punter
and is averaging 42.6 yards this season. Antonio Cromartie and Leon
Washington
return kicks and Willie Reid returns punts.

Special Teams Rankings

8th – Punt returns (8.1 ypr)

10th – Kickoff returns (20.1 ypr)

3rd – Net Punting (38.0)

10th – Kickoff coverage (32.6 ypr)

UVa Offense vs. FSU Defense

The Seminole defense is fast and physical, but it may wear down physically if the Cavaliers can move the ball and control the clock.

Virginia has produced three drives this season that lasted over 6:52. That
type of ball control will be the difference in winning and losing. Look for
the screens that were so effective last season against the Seminoles and also
look for the ‘Hoos to challenge the FSU man-to-man coverage deep with Michael
McGrew and Deyon Williams .

But the bottom line is that the success of the Virginia running game is
essential to success in this game. The line must step up and prove it is
the best offensive line in the league. The sweeps and tosses that have been so
effective early in the season will be tested by the incredible speed of the
Nole defense.

Success on the ground will be defined between the tackles, face-to-face and
man-to-man. With Patrick Estes at full strength, the two tight-end set will be
a fixture Saturday and expect a very mobile pocket in an attempt to slow the
FSU rush and tire the Seminole defensive line. The Noles have had problems
with mobile quarterbacks and Marques Hagans is one of the best.

It will be critical for the ‘Hoos to have solid production on first down, gaining four yards or more. The Noles lead the conference in third-down conversion defense (17.9%), while the Cavaliers lead in third-down conversion offense (53.8%). Staying out of third-and-long situations will be critical for Virginia.

FSU, which leads the ACC with 17 sacks, can apply too much pressure in third-and-long. So the Cavs must control the ball and dominate the line of scrimmage.

UVa Defense vs. FSU Offense

Virginia will frequently deploy its four-man front, backed up by a hefty dose
of cover three with lots of run support from the safeties.

I think there are significant areas the ‘Hoos can exploit in the Seminole
offense and each area is designed to limit the field of play. First,
quarterback Wyatt Sexton has had difficulty completing a staple of the FSU
offense, the out routes. Under Sexton, the Seminoles have been relegated to
crossing and slant patterns that force the action between the hashes and back
into the teeth of the Virginia defense, the linebackers.

And while the FSU wideouts are speedy, athletic pass-catchers, they are not
very effective run-blockers. This limits the outside running ability of the
Noles and will allow Virginia to concentrate primarily on the inside running
game. When the Noles do go outside, their backs are very adept at cutting back
and taking the play back inside. One key is to close the cutback lanes and keep Washington and Booker from attacking those open spaces.

The ‘Hoos will try and force the inexperienced Sexton and mistake-prone Rix to
drive the ball down the field and not produce the big strike. Virginia’s defense will
bring pressure for the aforementioned reasons, but the Cavs had good success against Clemson and a very good quarterback in Charlie Whitehurst by mixing and
disguising coverages as well as playing solid coverage with the cover two zone.

I don’t look for all-out blitzing but expect the ‘Hoos to take some shots at the
FSU quarterbacks.

The Edge

Quarterbacks – Virginia

Running Backs – Even

Offensive Line – Even

Wide Receivers – Florida State

Tight Ends – Virginia

Defensive Line – Florida State

Linebackers – Virginia

Secondary – Florida State

Special Teams – Virginia

Stone-Cold Lock Prediction

After predicting a 21-point win for the ‘Hoos a week ago, I’m feeling very
Nostradamus-like this week. Let’s hope I’m right.

Although UVa is the higher-ranked team, it still enters this contest as the
underdog. The Wahoos have faced every task presented to them this season but
they will face two of their biggest demons this week – winning in the state of
Florida and winning a big game on the road.

Virginia will not get 225 yards rushing against the Noles but it will mix the
pass and run and effectively control the ball and time of possession. The
defense will put a heavy emphasis on stopping the run and force the Seminoles
to the air, where I like Virginia’s chances with the nickel package.

There are two big intangibles that I believe will be the difference in
Virginia’s win. The first is destiny and the second is special teams. When
evenly-matched teams play, turnovers and special teams usually are what set
them apart. The Virginia special teams will control the coverage and produce a
big, game-changing play – perhaps by using something new in the arsenal. The defense
will force mistakes from the FSU quarterbacks.

The “Tribe” has stepped up in every circumstance all season long. Sometimes
one just gets a sense about a team or a situation and the prevailing thought in
this writer’s mind is that this Virginia team, after so many disappointments, is
different and due. If so, it will win in Doak Campbell and become the newest member of
the NCAA “Title Hunt Club.”

Virginia 24, Florida State 16

John’s take: Let me start off with some easy predictions: Ernie Sims won’t drive Heath Miller into the dirt. Wyatt Sexton won’t remind FSU fans of Charlie Ward. Marques Hagans will fare better than he did in Tallahassee two years ago. And the sun will come up Sunday morning, win or lose.

Now for the tough part. Who’s going to win Saturday night? I’ve thought about the game all week, looking at the matchups and trying to figure out how the game will unfold. Truth is, this is a tough game to predict. The good news is that Virginia matches up with Florida State better than it ever has before. In terms of size, experience and toughness, the Cavs don’t play second fiddle to the Seminoles. They won’t get pushed around. They won’t get physically dominated, which is usually the case when these teams meet. Coach Groh has raised his program’s talent level to the same level as Saint Bobby’s football factory (or at least close to it).

I also don’t think home field will play a huge role. Playing at Doak Campbell surely helps the Noles, who get energized in their chop-shop. But I don’t think it will intimidate the Cavs, who have plenty of players who have been around the ACC block. By now, they shouldn’t be scared of any environment or any team. And despite Virginia’s spotty record on the road under Coach Groh, he has instilled enough mental toughness in this team to handle the pressure of a hostile crowd and a big-game environment. At least I think so.

The main reason I like Virginia’s chances is its advantage at the most important position: quarterback. A few years ago, who would have thought that Hagans would be the top-rated quarterback in the league, while Chris Rix would be having such a miserable senior season? (OK, maybe some FSU fans.) Wyatt Sexton hasn’t exactly torn it up as Rix’s replacement, so the difference in the QB play is really remarkable. Consider this stat: Virginia leads the ACC in yards per passing attempt (9.8), while Florida State is dead last (5.7). Crazy. To me, the Seminoles are as good as ever at almost every position except quarterback, but that’s the difference between being a top-5 team and a top-10 team. Unlike Rix and Sexton, Hagans hasn’t held his team back from reaching its potential. If anything, he’s helped carry the Cavaliers this far.

What really concerns me, however, is FSU’s team speed. It’s ridiculous, especially at the offensive skill positions and throughout the defense. The Seminoles completely shut down Miami, a team with a potent offense, until the final drive of regulation and the only possession of overtime. The cornerbacks, in particular, are playmakers who are nearly impossible to beat deep. So Virginia will need to move the ball with inside runs by Wali Lundy, swing passes to Alvin Pearman and intermediate throws to Miller. On defense, the Cavs cannot afford to get burned by Craphonso Thorpe, as they did last year, and they can’t let Leon Washington run free for 30-yard gains, as Syracuse did last week. The ‘Hoos are fast at certain positions, but they don’t have the speed in the secondary and at receiver to handle those matchups. They probably can’t stop the Noles cold, but they need to hold them to field goals.

And that’s what I think this game will come down to — a field goal. After all, that’s the Florida State way. So what I predict is a low-scoring, hard-hitting game that comes down to a 42-yard field-goal attempt by Xavier Beitia on the final play. Against Miami, it would go wide right. Against Virginia, it will go wide left.

John’s prediction: Virginia 17, Florida State 15

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