Overview
“[Virginia] is a lot tougher than any opponent we’ve had in a bowl game since I’ve been here. This is a very good opponent. This is really a team that has no true weakness. Defensively they are very strong, and offensively they can run the football.” – Fresno State coach Pat Hill
Fresno State will make its sixth consecutive bowl appearance, and 19th overall, when it takes on 18th-ranked Virginia on Monday in the MPC Computers Bowl at Bronco Stadium in Boise, Idaho. The Bulldogs finished the regular season 8-3 overall and 5-3 in the WAC, while the Cavaliers (8-3, 5-3 ACC) were ranked as high as sixth at one point this season and enter the bowl as Fresno State’s first ranked postseason opponent since No. 17 Colorado in the 1993 Jeep Aloha Bowl.
Like many members of non-BCS leagues, the Bulldogs are looking for respect and a win over Virginia could help legitimize their program as an up and comer. A win for the ‘Hoos would be their third consecutive bowl win, a program first, and it could help them land their highest-ever final ranking.
Fresno State Offense vs. Virginia Defense
Fresno State Statistics (National Ranking in Parentheses)
FS Total Offense – 399.7 (33) / UVA Total Defense – 300.2 (15)
FS Rushing Offense – 228 (15) / UVA Rushing Defense – 109.2 (18)
FS Passing Offense – 171.73 (97) / UVA Passing defense – 191 (23)
FS Scoring – 40.45 (5) / UVA Scoring Defense 15.9 (11)
FS Third Down Conversions – 49% / UVA Conversion Defense – 30%
FS Sacks Against – 17 / UVA Sacks For – 34
FS Time of Possession – 29:33 / UVA Defense Time Without Possession – 28:14
FS Turnovers Lost – 22 / UVA Turnovers Gained – 16
FS First Downs – 221 / UVA First Down Defense – 178
FS Kick Return Average – 23.4
FS Punt Return Average – 8.0
FS Net Punt Average – 35.8
FS Interception Return Average – 28.2
Over the last five games of the regular season, Frank Cignetti’s offense was a freight train. The numbers are staggering – 27 touchdowns in 29 red-zone opportunities over than span. Fresno State averaged 56 points in those five games and surpassed the 50-point mark in the last four, becoming just the sixth team in NCAA history to accomplish that feat. The Bulldogs defeated their last five opponents by an average of 40 points. Overall, they are averaging 399.7 yards per game – 228.0 on the ground and 171.1 through the air.
Clearly the strength of the Fresno State offensive attack is its running game and, like any good running offense, it begins up front.
Junior guard Dartangon Shack returned to his more natural position of guard this year after starting 14 games at left tackle in 2003. One of the strongest players on the team, Dartangon has started 26 consecutive games and was named honorable mention All-WAC this season. With only eight starts, freshman guard Ryan Wendell is the only member of the Bulldog line to not start every game this season.
Center Kyle Young, though just a sophomore, is considered one of the most impressive linemen in the WAC. Young has started all 25 games in his career and earned second-team All-WAC honors in 2004.
Another hard-working sophomore is tackle Chris Denman, a former walk-on who earned a scholarship with steady play. He has started the past 18 games. The key member of the Fresno State offensive front is All-American tackle Logan Mankins. A former walk-on, the senior was a first-team All-WAC selection and a probable high-round NFL pick. Mankins was the first offensive lineman in Bulldog history to be selected team MVP. A starter in 37 career games, Mankins has recorded a team-high 82 pancake blocks on the year and has graded out at over 90 percent for the season.
“We have really good speed and we have great quickness and agility in the offensive line,” said Fresno State coach Pat Hill, who noted the line’s lack of size. “Our left guard is 245-250, our right guard is 270, and our right tackle is 260. But they’re very strong, very quick, very athletic. And they’ll be matched up with, well, linebackers as big as our guards.”
As it has done all season, the Virginia defense will attempt to contain the Fresno State running game with seven men. I like the fact that the Bulldogs are primarily a straight-ahead running team and do not employ a great deal of zone blocking. Their line, however, does not generally face a two-gap scheme with its assignments being 4-5 yards off the ball as it will against Virginia.
One key matchup is Young, the Fresno center, against Andrew Hoffman. Few players can handle the strong Virginia nose tackle and I look for Young to struggle. The other interesting matchup will be Denman, the right tackle, against either Ahmad Brooks or Darryl Blackstock in the Virginia nickel. I doubt the ‘Hoos will blitz from Mankins’s left side but will take their chances with the young tackle opposite the All-American. That said, don’t be surprised if Al Golden decides to test Mankins early, seeing if he can handle the Virginia speed on the outside with some first-quarter blitzing on passing downs.
Like Virginia’s, the Bulldogs’ offensive line paves the way for a solid running back tandem. Juniors Wendell Mathis and Bryson Sumlin have combined for 1,879 yards rushing, 25 touchdowns and a staggering 6.2 yards per carry.
Mathis is second on the team with 896 rushing yards and is tied for second in the WAC with 12 rushing scores. He is averaging 6.6 yards per carry, the top rushing average in the conference. Sumlin ranks fourth in the WAC and 40th in the NCAA in rushing yards and became the fourth Bulldog in four years to gain 1,000 yards this season. Sumlin has rushed for 20 touchdowns over the last two seasons.
But the Bulldog rushing numbers are suspect when compared to that of Virginia. Fresno State has played against nine Division 1-A opponents that fall in the bottom 57 of the NCAA in rush defense. In its only contest against a team in the top 59, Boise State (#4), Fresno State managed just 17 yards on 17 carries. Virginia has played against six teams in the top 67 and averaged 195 yards rushing per game.
The triggerman for the Bulldogs is junior quarterback Paul Pinegar. As a starter, Pinegar is 23-8, including 5-1 against BCS teams. He ranks seventh in career passing yards (6,566) and sixth in touchdowns (49) in Bulldog history.
Joe Fernandez has been Fresno State’s top wideout this year, recording 33 catches for 474 yards and four scores, all team highs. He is one of the team’s more sure-handed receivers and was selected honorable mention All-WAC. Before the last four games, Adam Jennings had just one career touchdown catch but he recorded four in the last four games. Jennings has 18 grabs for 237 yards. Though not a starter, Jermaine Jamison is the team’s second-leading receiver with 20 receptions for 238 yards.
Don’t look for Virginia to deviate significantly from its traditional Cover-2 defense. In the pass-happy WAC, quarterbacks typically see nickel, dime and a vast assortment of junk-type coverages designed to fool quarterbacks. Pinegar is a savvy quarterback and the typically horizontal Bulldog passing game will not likely be affected by changes in coverage.
Ultimately, the Wahoos need to limit the big plays and slow the Fresno State running game. Virginia will also try and slow the quick-starting Bulldogs. In the past four games, Fresno State has scored on 29 of its 34 first-half drives.
Fresno State Defense vs. Virginia Offense
Virginia Statistics (National Ranking in Parentheses)
UVA Total Offense – 423.6 (25) / FS Total Defense 331.7 (34)
UVA Rushing Offense – 241.3 (12) / FS Rushing Defense – 155.8 (62)
UVA Passing Offense – 182.3 (87) / FS Passing defense – 175.91 (14)
UVA Scoring – 29.9 (32) / FS Scoring Defense 19.9 (26)
UVA Third Down Conversions – 47% / FS Conversion Defense – 37%
UVA Sacks Against – 15 / FS Sacks For – 26
UVA Time of Possession – 31:46 / FS Defense Time Without Possession – 30:21
UVA Turnovers Lost – 10 / FS Turnovers Gained – 29
UVA First Downs – 243 / FS First Down Defense – 200
UVA Kick Return Average – 26.1 / FS Kick Return Coverage – 17.6
UVA Punt Return Average – 11.2 / FS Punt Coverage – 2.7
UVA Net punt average – 29.7
UVA Interception Return Average – 4.2
Despite playing in the WAC, which features seven offenses ranked in the top 50 nationally, the Bulldogs still rank 25th in scoring defense at 19.9 per game, including an average of just 16 points allowed over the past five contests.
Defensive coordinator Dan Brown runs a base 4-3 that is built around small but speedy personnel.
Up front the Bulldogs took a hit with the loss of nose tackle Donyell Booker for academic reasons. Booker had started all 11 games for Fresno this season and will likely be replaced by the duo of redshirt freshman Jason Sherley and sophomore Louis Leonard.
The other interior lineman is tackle Garrett McIntyre. A former walk-on, he was selected first-team All-WAC in 2004 and second-team All-WAC in 2003. McIntyre is emerging as one of the best defensive linemen in the WAC, ranking fourth in the WAC in sacks (7) and ninth in tackles for losses (11).
McIntyre will likely be matched up with Virginia’s Elton Brown as it is unlikely that the Bulldogs would want a non-starter facing one the country’s top offensive linemen. This is another matchup to watch on Monday.
At the defensive ends, Fresno starts seniors Brian Morris and Claude Sanders. Morris has recorded 29 tackles and is second on the team with three sacks. He has 17 career sacks and 25 tackles for loss. Sanders is an excellent pass-rushing end, posting 10 tackles for loss, second best among Bulldogs. He has also registered 15 career sacks.
The linebackers are young, featuring a redshirt freshman in Marcus Riley and two sophomores in Dwayne Andrews and Alan Goodwin. Andrews is the team’s second-leading tackler (57) with Goodwin and Riley combining for 64 stops. The linebackers do not figure in the Fresno State pass rush and are generally not called upon to force tackles behind the line of scrimmage. Sub Manuel Sanchez is the big tackle-for-loss man on the defense with 8.5 stops behind the line.
The strength of the Bulldog defense is the secondary. The corners are sophomores Marcus McCauley and Richard Marshall. Marshall is a physical defender who has returned three interceptions for touchdowns during his career and averages 47.5 yards per interception return. He was a second-team All-WAC selection in 2004 and is fourth on the team with 55 tackles
Both safeties, juniors Tyrone Culver and James Sanders, are All-WAC performers. Culver leads the team in tackles with 59. Sanders was first-team All-WAC in 2003 and 2004. He is a top-flight cover guy who can hit and is considered one of the top defenders in the WAC. Sanders has seven career interceptions and seven career sacks. He finished the regular season third on the team in tackles (56) and tied for the team lead with three interceptions.
Look for Sanders to draw the Heath Miller assignment early. But if Virginia starts having success in the running game, Sanders may be forced to stick with run support and leave Miller to one of the inexperienced linebackers.
The Dogs have a ball-hawking defense that can do damage with possession. They average 28.2 yards per interception return and have scored seven defensive touchdowns this season. Obviously, Marques Hagans must be careful with the ball.
Special Teams
Fresno State’s special teams have established themselves as one of the nation’s best units. The Bulldogs have blocked nine kicks, including three punts in the last five games. Under Hill, Fresno State has blocked 53 kicks and is averaging one block every two games.
Not only are the Bulldogs exceptional at blocking kicks, but they are also a threat to put points on the board every time they take the field. Since Hill took over in 1997, Fresno State has scored 17 touchdowns on special teams and has racked up three safeties.
Punter Mike Lingua is a weapon. Only nine of his 44 punts have been returned thanks to his tremendous hang time. Fresno State is third in net punting in the WAC and the coverage unit has allowed just 27 punt return yards all season, the least in the nation. Lingua punted 44 times this year for an average of 36.4.
Kicker Brett Visintainer is solid, hitting on 51 of 52 PATs this year and 9 of 12 field goals.
Stone-Cold Lock Prediction
I like the Fresno State program. I like Pat Hill and his flamboyance with respect to talking up his team’s BCS chances in 2005 before the Bulldogs even set foot on the frozen blue tundra in Boise. I like the blue-collar ethic of this team. The Dogs truly do remind me a lot of Virginia.
But my job is to objectively predict the outcome of this football game and folks, this one will not be close. Why? Matchups. Virginia’s weaknesses do not align with Fresno State’s strengths. The Bulldog passing game is unlikely to challenge the Virginia secondary. A strong Fresno State secondary will not have to deal with a high-octane, vertical passing attack because Virginia doesn’t have one.
The Virginia strengths will be the difference in this game. I do not believe Fresno State has an answer for Heath Miller, Jason Snelling or Tom Santi . Its linebackers are young and while they have the speed to hang with non-receivers, they do not match up well in size and physicality. Fresno State does not have an answer for Elton Brown, Zac Yarbrough, D’Brickashaw Ferguson, et al, and the Bulldogs have had difficulty defending the mobile quarterbacks they’ve faced.
On defense, Virginia has one of the top gap pluggers in the nation in Hoffman and two of the more physical inside linebackers in the land in Kai Parham and Ahmad Brooks . Attacking the perimeter is not the general attack mode of the Bulldogs but it is doubtful they can do so with Virginia’s excellent lateral speed on the outside.
Finally, the aggressive nature of the Fresno State defense is a dream assignment for Virginia offensive coordinator Ron Prince. Screens, run/pass bootleg options, counters and draws all are staples of the Virginia offense (or at least they used to be – forgive the editorial content there) and if dusted off for the MPC Computers Bowl will make the Virginia offense very difficult to defend. But Prince has another option at his disposal as well. He can just line up and physically manhandle the Bulldogs and run the ball down their throats. The latter is certainly more fun for the offensive line but my guess is the backs, tight ends, quarterbacks and receivers will have some fun on Monday.
Virginia 35, Fresno State 17
John’s take: If it’s a matter of talent and matchups, as Greg suggests, then Virginia should have no problem winning this game. Fresno State has a nice offensive line, a strong secondary and solid special teams. But the Bulldogs are too small throughout the roster, especially in their front seven on defense, to stand up to the Cavs physically. They have scored a ton of points by overpowering the likes of Hawaii and San Jose State, by making interceptions and by blocking kicks. But they haven’t played a team as big and strong as Virginia, nor have they faced a quarterback who has avoided big mistakes as well as Marques Hagans.
Fresno State doesn’t have the speed or finesse to compensate for that lack of size. Its passing game is mediocre, so UVa’s suspect secondary shouldn’t be exposed. The Bulldogs can blitz all they want on defense, but that shouldn’t work against Virginia’s running game. In fact, blitzing may be counterproductive, opening up running lanes for Hagans and giving Heath Miller a chance to have a big day against one-on-one coverage. Like Greg said, the matchups are clearly in Virginia’s favor. Al Groh said Fresno State’s talent level is about the same as Maryland’s, and we know how easily Virginia manhandled the Terps.
Of course, talent isn’t everything. If this game is more about motivation, the Cavs could be in trouble. After all, which team has more to gain? Fresno State, by a landslide. The Bulldogs, initially reluctant to play in Boise, jumped at the chance to play a nationally-ranked team from a BCS conference. It’s a rare opportunity for them to gain national exposure and respect. They have thrived with that underdog mentality under Pat Hill, so there’s no doubt they’ll be jacked for the game.
What about Virginia? Let’s face it, beating Fresno State isn’t going to change outsiders’ perceptions of the season. This team played three big games against ranked teams and lost all of them. In that respect, this isn’t a fourth big game. It’s a ninth “little” game, one that brings little prestige or attention and doesn’t boost the program’s stature. Groh can talk all he wants about the importance of winning a third straight bowl game and finishing in the top 15 of the polls. Those are nice goals but won’t get rid of the bad taste of the Virginia Tech loss or make anyone think this program is a budding national power.
If anything, you have to wonder how excited the players will be about playing a third-place WAC team on the smurf turf in Idaho. After 10 games, they were hoping for an ACC championship and a BCS berth. At worst, they figured they’d be going to Atlanta or Orlando for their bowl trip. Some admit to being bummed about Boise, at least initially.
But the good news is that Groh seems to excel in this sort of situation. He has convinced his players that winning bowl games is important, regardless of the bowl, and they played like it the last two years in Charlotte. He also has managed to get his team mentally prepared for every game in which it was favored this season. To his credit and to the players’ credit, the Cavs did not play down to the level of the opposition any time during the regular season. When they faced an inferior opponent, they prevailed in a big way. I’d expect the same Monday. No letdown, no funk, no Boise blues. Just a ninth win and a good finish to a bittersweet 2004 season.
Virginia 42, Fresno State 21
