In preparation for this week’s ACC Baseball Tournament, the Sabre.com takes a quick look at Virginia’s three bracket opponents.
#6 Florida State (39-17, 16-13 ACC)
QUICK FACTS
Last 10 games (4-6)
Last 20 games (7-13)
Team ERA (3.53, 4th ACC)
Team BA (.297, 7th ACC))
Team FLD (.966, 5th ACC)
Florida State in the National Polls (As of May 22)
NCBWA #20
USA TODAY/ESPN #18
Rosenblattreport.com #21
Collegiate Baseball #22
SEBaseball.com #24
Baseball America NR
Rating Percentage Index (RPI)
WarrenNolan.com #15
Boyd’sWorld #15
Record vs. Bracket Opponents (3-3)
North Carolina State (2-1)
Virginia DNP
North Carolina (1-2)
Pitching Probables:
#22 Bryan Henry RHP (9-2, 2.39 ERA, .223 OBA, 95/25 K/BB ratio)
#10 Tyler Chambliss, RHP (11-4, 2.67 ERA, .244 OBA, 99/45 K/BB ratio)
#29 Barrett Browning, LHP (7-2, 5.31 ERA, .324 OBA, 45/30 K/BB ratio)
#25 Michael Hyde, RHP (7-1, 5.33 ERA, .277 OBA, 38/23 K/BB ratio)
#31 Luke Tucker, RHP, Closer (24 AP, 1-1, 1.35, 8 saves, .138 OBA)
Key Offensive Players
LF #2 Shane Robinson, .352 BA, .432 OBP, 70 runs scored, 26-29 SB/SBA
SS #46 Jack Rye, .349 BA, 11 HR, 44 RBIS, .624 SLG
DH/C #24 Dennis Guinn, .346 BA, 59 RBIS, 10 home runs, .595 SLG
Scouting the Seminoles
On April 10, the Seminoles were in the top three in most major polls and riding sky high, having won 33 of their first 37 games. The Noles lost two of three to Miami that weekend in Tallahassee, precipitating a 5-12 skid (2-9 in the ACC) that dropped the Seminoles to a sixth place in the overall conference standings. The Noles have struggled down the stretch having lost 6 of the last 10 and 13 of their last 20.
That’s what makes the Seminoles a dangerous tournament team. This is a very talented baseball squad that has underachieved over the last month. They won’t continue to play poorly forever. The question is when will FSU get back on track?
The Seminoles possess two All-ACC starting pitchers in Bryan Henry and Tyler Chambliss. Henry returned to his familiar role as the opening game series starter against N.C. State and will start against Virginia. Henry opened the 2005 ACC Tournament on the hill and pitched a gem giving up one run in 6.1 in leading FSU past North Carolina. He leads all Seminole starters in ERA at 2.39 and opponents are hitting a modest .223.
Chambliss, a Clemens Award semifinalist has spent most of the season as FSU’s No. 2 starter. Chambliss is tied for the second-most wins in the nation at 11-4 and is sporting a 2.67 ERA. Teams are batting just .244. against the Florida State righty.
The Seminole bullpen has been a strength for FSU all season. Closer Luke Tucker was on the mid-season Stopper of the Year Watch list and his numbers have been mind-boggling. The junior leads the team with a 1.35 ERA. In 26.2 innings, he has given up just four earned runs, struck out 44 and walked just 12. Opponents are batting .138 against him and only three of 53 leadoff runners have reached base against Tucker
The rest of the staff is far less dominant.
Barret Browning has the second-highest ERA on the team at 5.31 and opposing hitters have racked up a team-high .324 average off the FSU left-hander. Michael Hyde is 7-1 but has the highest ERA on the team at 5.33. He holds opponents to a respectable .277 average but teams are slugging an alarming .403 against.
Florida State has power and speed. The Seminoles were fourth in the league in triples (17), fourth in home runs (56) and third in stolen bases with 87. They are a very patient team and will work pitchers. The Noles were third in the conference in walks and third in strikeouts.
The key is to keep the Seminoles off the base paths to minimize their speed advantage and to limit home runs. Florida State is 25-6 when they hit a homer. Bottom line? The Noles need offense to win. FSU has yet to win a game this season when scoring three runs or fewer (10 games).
#2 North Carolina (45-11, 22-8 ACC)
QUICK FACTS
Last 10 (7-3)
Last 20 (16-4)
Team ERA (3.08, 3rd – ACC)
Team BA (.317, 4th ACC))
Team FLD (.965, 6th ACC)
North Carolina in the National Polls (As of May 22)
NCBWA #4
USA TODAY/ESPN #4
Rosenblattreport.com #3
Collegiate Baseball #4
Baseball America #4
SEBaseball.com #4
Rating Percentage Index (RPI)
WarrenNolan.com #7
Boyd’sWorld #8
Record vs. Bracket Opponents (6-3)
North Carolina State (3-0)
Virginia (1-2)
Florida State (2-1)
Pitching Probables:
#33 Andrew Miller LHP (11-1, 1.71 ERA, .194 OBA, 53/17 K/BB ratio)
#30 Robert Woodard, RHP (6-1, 2.83 ERA, .258 OBA, 39/16 K/BB ratio)
#25 Daniel Bard, RHP (7-3, 3.53 ERA, .219 OBA, 82/31 K/BB ratio)
#39 Luke Putkonen, RHP (6-0, 3.13 ERA, .222 OBA, 35/22 K/BB ratio)
#8 Andrew Carignan, RHP, Closer (26 AP, 1-2, 2.83, 13 saves, .143 OBA)
Key Offensive Players
LF #10 Jay Cox, .388 BA, 9 home runs, 42 RBIS
SS #12 Josh Horton, .398 BA, 41 RBIS, .559 SLG
DH/C #26 Benji Johnson, .300 BA, 11 home runs, .631 SLG
Scouting the Tar Heels
North Carolina enters the ACC Tournament as one of the hottest teams in the league. Winners of 7 of the last 10 and 16 of 20 games. Offensively, the Heels will remind many of the Cavaliers, but with more home run power.
The Tar Heels’ 45 victories are a regular season school record. The first team in the nation to reach 40 victories, Carolina has a school-record five straight 40-win seasons. The 45 victories share the national lead with Rice and Virginia.
Like the Cavaliers, the Tar Heels possess a potent pitching rotation and have been potent on offense. With two home runs against Boston College, Carolina pushed its season total to 64 to surpass the 2005 team total. Conversely, UNC’s pitching staff has surrendered only 19 homers all season, including just one over the last 22 games.
With eight potential starters batting .290 or better, Carolina has produced throughout its lineup this season to the tune of a .317 team average. Josh Horton (.405), Jay Cox (.379), and Chad Flack (.368) all rank among the top six hitters in the ACC. Johnson saw a career-best nine-game hitting streak snapped in the series finale at Virginia.
Thanks in large part to reliable middle relievers Jonathan Hovis and Matt Danford and closer Andrew Carignan, Carolina is 36-2 this season when leading after six
innings and 40-0 when ahead after seven. Prior to the May 10 loss to Winthrop, the Tar Heels’ three main relievers – set-up men Matt Danford and Jonathan Hovis and closer Andrew Carignan – had been lights out over the last month. In a combined 24 appearances between the April 8 loss at Miami and the May 10 loss to the Eagles, Danford, Hovis, and Carignan did not allow an earned run.
But against Winthrop and Virginia, the usually reliable backbone of the pitching staff allowed a combined 12 earned runs in just 9.2 innings. Hovis and Danford
each gave up two runs, but Carignan allowed a career high four earned runs in back-to-back appearances after allowing just one earned run over his first 22 appearances.
The key against Carolina: limit the long ball and keep the Heels from getting ahead. The UNC pitching is too good to play from behind and the Tar Heels 32-6 record when scoring first is proof. Against North Carolina, Virginia needs to be aggressive at the plate and aggressive on the base paths and force a suspect Heel defense to make plays.
#7 North Carolina State (35-19, 16-13 ACC)
QUICK FACTS
Last 10 (4-6)
Last 20 (9-11)
Team ERA (3.53 – 4th ACC)
Team BA (.339 – 1st ACC))
Team FLD (.966 – 5th ACC)
North Carolina State in the National Polls (As of May 22)
NCBWA #30
USA TODAY/ESPN NR
Collegiate Baseball #26
SEBaseball.com #27
Rosenblattreport.com NR
Baseball America NR
Rating Percentage Index (RPI)
WarrenNolan.com #16
Boyd’sWorld #18
Record vs. Bracket Opponents (4-5)
North Carolina (0-3)
Virginia (3-0)
Florida State (1-2)
Pitching Probables:
#27 Gib Hobson RHP (8-1, 4.78 ERA, .286 OBA, 58/27 K/BB ratio)
#39 Eryk McConnell, RHP (6-6, 4.34 ERA, .264 OBA, 61/20 K/BB ratio)
#24 Ryan Pond , RHP (2-0, 4.20 ERA, .338 OBA, 8/3 K/BB ratio)
#31 Joey Cutler, RHP (1-2, 1.42 ERA, .179 OBA, 17/8 K/BB ratio)
#29 Jason Duncan, LHP (4-0, 5.35, .289 OBA, 24/18 K/BB ratio)
#44 Sam Wells, RHP, Closer (20 AP, 5-4, 2.79, 6 saves, .236 OBA)
Key Offensive Players
CF/SS #1 Matt Camp, .389 BA, 86 hits, .498 SLG, .452 OBP
C/1B #45 Jon Still, .365 BA, 50 RBIS, .539 SLG, .459 OBP
C/1B #33 Aaron Bates, .350 BA, 9 home runs, .568 SLG, .485 OBP
Scouting the Wolfpack
A month ago, N.C. State was ranked No. 7 in the nation and rolling, having won 9 of its last 11 games and 31 of 41 games overall. A sweep at the hands of North Carolina in Chapel Hill caused the Wolfpack to spin out on the far turn, and the Pack suddenly has lost 7 of 10 games (2-6 in the ACC). NCSU is struggling to right the ship entering the ACC Tournament.
N.C. State heads into the ACC Tournament as the conference’s leading offensive team, both overall and in conference games. The Wolfpack leads the ACC in hitting with a .339 average, 13 points ahead of Virginia. The Pack also leads the league in on-base percentage (.431) and is tied for the league lead in doubles (134). Matt Camp is second in the ACC in batting at .389, with Jon Still seventh at .365, Caleb Mangum ninth (.362), and Ramon Corona 10th (.413). Corona and Camp are tied for the league lead with 1.59 hits per game.
The offense hasn’t slowed down during the recent skid. The Pack batted .364 in the last seven games and scored 74 runs. Instead, poor pitching has been State’s nemesis over the last four weeks. Since the UNC series, the staff ERA is 5.95. Twice in the last eight games, NCSU has scored 10 runs and lost. The Wolfpack batted .352 and scored 26 runs in the FSU series and lost two of three.
Top starter Gib Hobson is 4-0 with a 2.97 ERA over his last eight appearances, and will get the ball for the UNC game on Wednesday. Hobson is N.C. State’s most experienced pitcher with 49 appearances, 35 starts, 201.2 innings pitched and 16 wins in his career. Eryk McConnell (6-6, 4.34), a redshirt-sophomore, will start the Wolfpack’s second game of the double-elimination tournament. In his last seven appearances, Hobson has allowed seven runs, five of them earned, on 27 hits in 33.1 innings. He is 4-0 with a 1.35 ERA over that time.
To come away with a win against State it’s important to avoid the big inning. Virginia gave up seven, four, and three run innings against the Pack and never recovered. In addition, it’s also critical to not give up free passes. Virginia gave up 12 walks, committed five errors, and had three hit batsmen. The State offense is too good and pitchers must make the Wolfpack work for every base runner.
#3 Virginia (45-11, 21-9 ACC)
QUICK FACTS
Last 10 (9-1)
Last 20 (18-2)
Team ERA (2.65, 1st ACC)
Team BA (.326, 2nd ACC)
Team FLD (.972, 1st ACC)
Virginia in the National Polls (As of May 22)
NCBWA #5
USA TODAY/ESPN #5
SEBaseball.com #5
Rosenblattreport.com #6
Baseball America #7
Collegiate Baseball #8
Rating Percentage Index (RPI)
WarrenNolan.com #10
Boyd’sWorld #11
Record vs. Bracket Opponents (2-4)
North Carolina State (0-3)
Florida State DNP
North Carolina (2-1)
Pitching Probables:
#21 Sean Doolittle, LHP (10-1, 1.90 ERA, .187 OBA, 94/16 K/BB ratio)
#25 Jacob Thompson, RHP (10-2, 2.07 ERA, .213 OBA, 75/25 K/BB ratio)
#18 Mike Ballard, LHP (8-2, 3.24 ERA, .248 OBA, 61/21 K/BB ratio)
#19 Pat McAnaney, LHP (5-1, 3.00 ERA, .252 OBA, 54/11 K/BB ratio)
#4 Casey Lambert, RHP, Closer (26 AP, 3-2, 2.78, 9 saves, .262 OBA)
Key Offensive Players
RF #9 Brandon Marsh, .371 BA, 49 runs scored, .489 SLG, .467 OBP
LR #20 Brandon Guyer, .330 BA, 50 RBIS, 6 home runs, .530 SLG
1B/P #21 Sean Doolittle, .318 BA, 52 RBIS, .444 SLG, .452 OBP
