A Rare Visit

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UVa hopes to grab a win this week. ~ Mike Ingalls – TheSabre.com

First, conference expansion really destroyed football rivalries. In the ACC, Virginia and Clemson had played for 27 straight years from 1977 to 2004 before the initial round of expansion led to divisions. Since that time, the Cavaliers and Tigers have played just twice until this Saturday’s showdown at Scott Stadium.

The next round of expansion has pushed the next meeting out further. These two teams won’t meet again until 2020. The Tigers aren’t coming back to Charlottesville until at least 2024. There are some UVa students right now that will finish medical school and their residency round by then. The next United States president will be wrapping up a first term by then. TBS will have aired enough Big Bang Theory re-runs by then to make you either very happy or very annoyed.

Considering how the two teams have fared in recent years, however, the infrequent meetings may not be a bad thing. Clemson is ranked No. 9 in the nation and looking for a second BCS Bowl bid in three years. UVa has had just two bowl eligible seasons in the last seven years and is one loss away from yet another sub-.500 campaign.

But that brings me to my next thought. Can Mike London become Dabo Swinney and pull his program out of the proverbial fire? Still, after that 6-7 campaign in 2010, Tiger fans were not happy and the heat was building. That led to some staff changes as Swinney brought in a new offensive coordinator one season and a defensive coordinator the next. Clemson took off and is flying high in the rankings and the ACC standings.

Sound familiar? This isn’t a perfect comparison, of course, because Swinney had just one losing season at Clemson and it still included a bowl bid. And Swinney inherited a very different situation in South Carolina than London did in Virginia. Yet, there is a thread there that is relevant. Swinney is a players’ coach with a go-get-’em personality. He has a greater football acumen than given credit for. He can flat out recruit. London fits those descriptions too. He also energized the fan base initially like Swinney did and turned things around quickly like Swinney did before having to make some staff changes with a losing season to follow up a bowl bid.

The difference, for now, is that London’s changes didn’t bring immediate dividends in the win-loss column. Will that change in November?

The Pick

Season to date: 5-3.

Virginia can win if … Clemson is sloppy AND UVa takes advantage of it. The Tigers have not been sharp the past three weeks with 2 fumbles and a missed field goal against Boston College, 2 fumbles and 2 INTs against Florida State, and 2 fumbles against Maryland. Of course, Georgia Tech wasn’t at its top level last week either with 5 turnovers, but Virginia couldn’t take advantage of that. If UVa is going to upset Clemson, it must create a sloppy game with turnovers and then score some points off those added possessions.

Virginia can lose if … sacks and turnovers pile up. Clemson leads the nation in sacks and this Virginia offense isn’t good when playing behind the down-and-distance schedule. Since the Ball State disaster, UVa improved its turnover issues with just 2 in the last 3 weeks (and both of those interceptions were in garbage time). The Tigers, meanwhile, enter this game with 20 take-aways and that is tied for 11th in the nation. If Clemson creates some turnovers, it could lead to a long evening at Scott Stadium.

And the winner is … Clemson. In a landslide. The Cavaliers haven’t seen this much speed since Oregon and that spells Trouble with a capital T considering the defense’s issues with big plays lately. I think that means UVa needs to win a shootout and I don’t think the offense has enough firepower to do it. Tigers 45, Hoos 17.