Belief Is Difficult In Hooville

Each year, I’m asked about the upcoming season by message board posters, radio hosts, and fans in general. Naturally, everyone wants a prediction.

I’ve been putting off the column version of those answers all month. I want to believe that I was a year early with last season’s prediction column, where I was right about BYU but very – very, very – wrong about the season. I want to believe in Mike London’s program on the field and I want to believe that wins are on the way.

I want to be able to say “this is next year” like every Hoo did during the magical basketball run last winter.

Last season’s 2-10 disaster, which somehow was even worse than what seemed like an awful 4-8 tailspin in 2012, makes all of that difficult. Belief, right now, is difficult. There isn’t a whole lot to grasp on to with Virginia football. The Hoos are 6-20 since a thrilling 14-13 win at Florida State in 2011. Of those six wins, only four have come against FBS level teams.

The backdrop for that journey, perhaps, has been more frustrating than the record. Along the way, a quarterback rotation and a lack of one, coaching changes galore, and some lopsided scoreboards have provided plenty of noise. There’s more. “Khalek get off the field!”, Jake McGee’s transfer, and a schedule with a strangely Western flavor (including 2014, UVa has hosted a team from west of the Mississippi seven of the past nine seasons) to name a few.

And there’s the great Virginia Tech timeout caper of 2012 that still sticks in plenty of people’s craw too.

So asking a Virginia fan to believe a turnaround is imminent in 2014 … well that’s a tough sell. Beyond some nice recruiting scores, where’s the evidence? This isn’t like the basketball double-dip championship where you could see some sort of success coming. No, at this point, a football resurgence in 2014 isn’t likely.

Unlikely, but not impossible. The ACC’s Coastal Division is as evenly matched as you can get at this level. No one is a run-away favorite and no one is a guaranteed cellar dweller. Richmond and Kent State are both games that Virginia should win out of conference. In 2012, the Wahoos lost four games by one touchdown or less. In 2013, the final scores weren’t as close but games with Pittsburgh, Maryland, Ball State, Duke, Georgia Tech, and Miami all offered chances to right the ship.

Alas, no one was at the helm.

That’s where I believe this team is different. I remember coach Tony Bennett saying last season that-coach-led teams can be good, but player-led teams can be better. Something was amiss last season in that regard with the football team. There was more a feeling of resign vs. resolve when things went downhill. I didn’t sense finger-pointing, but there wasn’t an extended hand feeling either.

The players seem different this fall. There is a collective mindset and a quiet belief. Of course, a loss hasn’t smacked anyone in the face to test that chemistry yet either. Still, I think there is enough in the tank to possibly create a surprising season. There’s enough leadership in the right places to navigate some difficult waters ahead.

I’ve been trying to convince myself to ignore those rosy preseason feelings and go with a 4-8 prediction. There’s too much past in the prologue after all. I’m not going to go that way, though. Based on what’s possible instead of considering it impossible, I’m going to predict 6-6. There’s no evidence to support that. I’m not even sure I really believe it as I’ve been waffling on the prediction all month long.

But damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!

The Pick

What about the opener with UCLA?

Virginia can win if … it scores enough points. That’s a duh statement, I know. But offense in this day and age is necessary. You’ve got to put points on the board and simply put, Virginia doesn’t. That’s been true for years now. The Hoos have struggled to score points for a decade or more. (2013-110th nationally at 19.8 ppg, 2012-95th nationally at 22.8 ppg; 2011-86th nationally at 23.2 ppg; 2010-tied for 75th nationally at 25.3 ppg). The last time UVa landed in the top 50 in the scoring category was 2004 when it tied for 27th nationally at 30.25 points per game.

The most the Hoos scored against FBS competition last season was 27 in a loss to Ball State. That’s right, the season high was less than 74 teams averaged! The year before, UVa cracked 30 points three times and went 2-1 in those games. With explosive UCLA in town, it’s going to take at least 30 to win.

Virginia can lose if … it doesn’t create sacks and turnovers. UCLA lost three games last season, falling to Stanford, Oregon, and Arizona State. In those three games, the Bruins gave up 16 sacks and five turnovers (two INT, four sacks vs. Stanford, two INT, three sacks vs. Oregon, one INT, nine sacks vs. Arizona State). In five losses during Jim Mora’s first season, they allowed 24 sacks and nine turnovers too. That means 45.5% of the sacks (40/88) and 34.1% of the turnovers (14/41) have come in UCLA losses over the past two seasons. In other words, if you can pressure UCLA’s offense into mistakes, you’ve got a chance.

And the winner is … UCLA 37-20. Virginia hangs around through three quarters, but the Bruins put it away late.