Everything You Need To Know: Kent State

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Mike Moore and the Hoos are looking for more reasons to celebrate this week. ~ Mike Ingalls

At 2-2 on the season, Virginia closes out the non-conference of its football schedule this week when Kent State visits Charlottesville on Saturday. The Golden Flashes lost at Ohio State in their last outing, 66-0. In other words, there doesn’t look like an upset is brewing this week.

Here’s everything you need to know for the contest.

Essentials

Game Nuggets

  • Virginia has never faced Kent State in football, but is 10-2-1 all-time against the current members of the Mid-American Conference. The Hoos lost to Ball State out of the MAC last season, 48-27.
  • Kent State is 11-24 all-time against the current members of the Atlantic Coast Conference with most of those wins (nine) coming against pre-ACC Louisville. The only win against an active member of the ACC came at NC State in 1971. KSU’s last win against a Power Conference team was against No. 15 Rutgers in 2012.
  • Virginia’s coaches are wearing “Coach to Cure MD” patches during the game. Coach to Cure MD is a nation-wide project designed to raise awareness and funding for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy Research.
  • Virginia’s players will wear “throw back” uniforms modeled after the 1967-74 seasons. The Hoos last wore these uniforms in the 2012 game against Louisiana Tech.
  • Kent State’s players will wear No. 54 on the side of their helmets as a tribute to Jason Bitsko, who died suddenly in August. Bitsko was expected to be the Golden Flashes’ starting center this season.

Spotlight On The Holley Brothers

Sophomores Nate and Nick Holley are a big part of Kent State’s football team. The twins are competitive inside and outside of the family. Here’s a Kent State video feature on the duo:

Nate Holley, the older brother by 20 minutes, is a key piece of the defense. The safety has posted 41 total tackles this season with 28 of the unassisted variety. He also has two forced fumbles, one fumble recovery, and one pass break-up. He had 18 tackles in the opener against Ohio. Holley leads the MAC with 13.7 tackles per game. Last season, Holley made 37 tackles as a true freshman.

Nick Holley, meanwhile, plays running back for the offense after switching over from receiver in the spring. He has 25 carries for 87 yards in addition to 11 catches for 74 yards. He has one receiving touchdown. Holley averaged 5.7 yards per carry at Ohio State and added a career-high six catches out of the backfield as well.

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Khalek Shepherd could have a big game against Kent State. ~ Mike Ingalls

Match-Ups To Watch

Virginia receiver Miles Gooch vs. Kent State’s cornerbacks. UVa fifth-year senior Miles Gooch put together strong back-to-back performances against Louisville and BYU. In those two games, Gooch hauled in 10 catches for 143 yards and one touchdown. As Greg Waters pointed out in his Sabre.com article this week, five of Gooch’s six catches against BYU came on third down and produced a first down. Not a bad two weeks at all. The Kent State cornerbacks expected to play are all listed as shorter than 6’0″, giving the 6’3″ Gooch a height advantage again this week.

Kent State’s Ernest Calhoun, Chris Humphrey, and Casey Pierce against Virginia’s pass coverage. The Golden Flashes have trouble running the football and as a result will look to the air often (115-73 pass-run ration so far this season). That means there are plenty of opportunities for Calhoun, Humphrey, and Pierce to make plays. Calhoun caught 11 passes against Ohio in the opener and he has 15 receptions for 128 yards this season. Humphrey and Pierce, meanwhile, have combined for 95 receptions, 1,097 yards, and 10 touchdowns since the start of the 2013 season. Humphrey has caught 10 passes for 109 yards and one touchdown this season after posting 51 receptions for 613 yards and three touchdowns in 2013. Pierce has 11 catches for 128 yards and one touchdown this season after recording 33 receptions for 364 yards and five touchdowns in 2013.

Virginia’s Khalek Shepherd vs. Kent State’s run defense and punt coverage. Kent State ranks 104th nationally in run defense and 118th nationally in punt coverage so UVa’s Khalek Shepherd probably has been excited watching video this week. Shepherd led the Hoos last week at BYU with 73 rushing yards and one touchdown on 14 carries (the Cougars rank 31st in rush defense after facing UVa). Shepherd notched a 73-yard touchdown catch against Louisiana Tech the last time the team wore these throw back uniforms – that play came on a wheel route that this Kent State defense has shown vulnerability against this season. While he hasn’t broken out in the punt return category, this might be a chance to do so. KSU has allowed 17.67 yards per return on nine attempts this season. Shepherd said this week he’s always wanted to return a kick for a touchdown so keep an eye on him in this one.

Kris’ Keys

1. Seek exceptional execution. On paper in nearly every category, this is a huge mismatch in Virginia’s favor. The offense should be able to move the ball and the defense should be as disruptive as ever. With that said, the Cavaliers have not been sharp or consistent in several areas this season. That includes run blocking, punt return blocking, punt/kickoff coverage, tackling on quick perimeter throws, and red zone offense to name a few. Plus, the Hoos are coming off a game with eight penalties for 86 yards at BYU. The goal this week shouldn’t be just to win, it should be to have as high of execution grades as possible while improving consistency in areas of concern.

2. Win the lines. The Cavaliers will have an advantage up front on both offense and defense this week. Offensively, that means there should be significant running lanes created for the running backs and plenty of time for the quarterbacks to throw to intermediate and downfield routes. Defensively, that means there should be sacks, tackles for loss, and chances to contain the pocket. Overall, both lines need to have a “try to dominate” philosophy in this game.

3. Throw in the red zone. Virginia should have multiple opportunities in the red zone against Kent State, which offers a chance at improvement. The Hoos’ red zone touchdown percentage of 52.9% is tied for 97th nationally. Offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild appears to prefer to run first in the red zone, but the Wahoos need to shift tendencies to score more points in my opinion. This is a good week to go to work on that task.

The Pick

Last week, I wasn’t sure about the pick and flip-flopped at the last minute to take the Hoos. UVa looked good for a while in Provo, but couldn’t come through with the win. The outcome and the pick this week, however, are much clearer.

Virginia can win if … it performs close to its capabilities. The Cavaliers are heavily favored in this game and they’re more productive in nearly every statistical category than the Golden Flashes. They should win and win easily. Of course, that knowledge can lead to focus and concentration issues and possibly a close game if something like that lingers. This team claims to be different and hungry to get wins – any wins – so this is a week to let the play back up that talk.

Virginia can lose if … it forfeits. Too brazen? Honestly, the only way I can see a shocking upset in this one is if UVa turnovers become direct points for Kent State (like UCLA scored three defensive touchdowns in the opener) and even then it would be surprising to see. This is a tune-up for ACC play and nothing more.

And the winner is … Virginia in lopsided fashion. Virginia 52, Kent State 10. Prediction record to date: 3-1.