Everything You Need To Know: Duke

By: Kris Wright |
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Henry Coley and the Hoos have lost to Duke in back-to-back seasons. ~ Mike Ingalls

Forget the season record to date. Forget the 2-0 conference record too. Forget the Coastal Division race and possibilities. It’s Duke week. As preposterous as that once would sound, it’s the exact attitude the Virginia football team needs as it heads to Durham on Saturday. The Blue Devils, after all, have won five of the last six meetings in this series, including two second-half shutouts the last two years to rally for victories.

Here’s everything you need to know for the 2014 showdown.

Essentials

Game Nuggets

  • Virginia leads the all-time series with Duke 33-32. The series has featured flip-flopping streaks of late. After UVa won eight straight, Duke has won five of the last six.
  • UVa enters this contest off a schedule bye. The Hoos are 26-28 all-time after a bye week. However, the Cavaliers are 4-1 under coach Mike London after a bye week.
  • Virginia is the only team in the nation with three players in the top 25 in sacks (Henry Coley 9th, Eli Harold 14th, and Max Valles 18th). Duke, meanwhile, is tied for second in the nation in sacks allowed. The Blue Devils have allowed just four all season.
  • Saturday is Homecoming at Duke, which holds a 40-49-1 all-time record in Homecoming games. The Blue Devils are 4-2 on Homecoming under coach David Cutcliffe and have won three straight Homecoming games.
  • Duke has won seven straight home games dating back to last season at Wallace Wade Stadium. The Blue Devils also have won seven of their last eight regular season ACC games, including a six-game streak to end last season en route to the Coastal Division crown.

Spotlight On Anthony Boone

In a conference full of fresh faces at quarterback this season, Duke’s Anthony Boone is a grizzled veteran with a sterling record to show for it. In his career, Boone owns a 15-3 record, the second best winning percentage in program history (83%). He’s also three wins away from setting a new program record for wins as a quarterback. Overall, Boone is 15-1 in regular season action with two losses against Heisman Trophy winners Jameis Winston and Johnny Manziel in postseason play.

“Well, there’s no question he’s a great leader. He’s a fierce competitor. His teammates absolutely believe in him, and so does his coaching staff,” Duke coach David Cutcliffe said. “He’s going to bring his best, not just on Saturday. Anthony is one of those guys, the reason he’s such a great leader is he brings his best starting Sunday. He’s very into what we’re doing, and I’m very appreciative of his contributions to this program.”

Boone does more than just win as the starter, though. He’s productive too. He has thrown 27 career touchdown passes, which is tied for seventh in school history. He also has rushed for 14 touchdowns in his career, the fourth most by a QB in program history. This season, Boone has thrown for 1,186 yards with eight touchdowns and three interceptions.. He has completed 121 of 210 passes (57.6%) while adding 148 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns.

Long story short, Boone helps make the Duke offense tick in a big way.

“There’s components to their offense that require a savvy quarterback. Their offense is something that they’ve been running the last couple years, and they’ve got the right type of personnel in the position to make things happen for them,” UVa coach Mike London said. “They’ve got talented running backs, and when you start to crowd up and take away the run, then with Crowder and other receivers, they throw the ball. It’s almost assignment oriented, but it’s about gap-sound principle, as well, … they do a good job of challenging your gap integrity, so we’ll have to do even a better job of being where we’re supposed to be.”

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Ross Burbank and the O-Line need to block well on the interior at Duke. ~ Mike Ingalls

Match-Ups To Watch

Virginia’s interior linemen vs. Duke’s interior defense. The Cavaliers got a very good effort from the interior line – center Ross Burbank played well in particular – against Pitt and a big key to offensive success against Duke is predicated on the ability to run the ball between the tackles and use that to set up the rest of the attack. The Blue Devils have struggled to stop the run this season (tied for 101st in rushing yards allowed per game at 202.3) so if UVa can’t continue its recent running surge going this week, that could spell trouble. With Virginia left guard Ryan Doull, who started the first six games, out on the injury report, this match-up takes on added significance. The good news is that Kevin Parks has had success in the past against Duke with 138 combined rushing and receiving yards and 3 TDs last season, 74 rushing yards and a touchdown in 2012, and 78 rushing yards in 2011.

UVa receiver Darius Jennings vs. the Duke secondary. The Blue Devils have been solid against this pass this season (16th nationally at 184.5 passing yards allowed per game), but Virginia’s spread-the-wealth mentality in the passing game will test Duke. The Hoos have seven players with at least nine catches this season, including Darius Jennings. The senior has been mostly quiet in the receiving category since a four-catch day against Richmond produced 79 yards, but his ability to run a combination of intermediate and deep passing routes could produce some openings against Duke’s style of defense. Keep an eye on Canaan Severin in that regard too.

Duke receiver Jamison Crowder vs. the UVa secondary and punt coverage team. Jamison Crowder is all over the Duke record books. He has 230 career receptions (fourth in ACC history, second in Duke history), 13 100-yard receiving games (third at Duke), 19 career touchdowns (sixth at Duke), and 4,681 all-purpose yards (second in Duke history). That production has come from a blend of agility and speed that make Crowder a handful to contain. He’s a top-notch route runner and has great downfield speed, which allows him to do everything from catch receiver screens to making double moves en route to deep catches. Virginia has seen this first hand the last two seasons. In 2012, he posted four catches for 84 yards and one touchdown. In 2013, Crowder tallied nine catches for 113 yards and one touchdown. Virginia’s inconsistency in punt coverage is a concern too with Crowder’s ability there.

Kris’ Keys

1. Disrupt Duke’s rhythm. The Blue Devils throw a lot at you on offense, but most of their success is predicated on efficiency. They need to stay on schedule to take advantage of their full arsenal. So far, Duke has done a good job of building rhythm and staying out of trouble – tied for second nationally in sacks allowed, tied for third nationally in tackles-for-loss allowed, and tied for 14th nationally in interceptions thrown. Virginia’s defense obviously thrives on those things defensively, but there are other ways to knock Duke off its stride. Quarterback hurries, quarterback hits, passes defended, passes broken up, and limiting yards after contact all can keep the Blue Devils working in more uncomfortable territory. Look at Duke’s lone loss to Miami for guidance. The Hurricanes had just one sack and just four tackles for loss, but they broke up 10 passes, intercepted two more, and tacked seven QB hurries on top of it. Virginia, by the way, ranks No. 1 nationally in both passes broken up and passes defended.

2. Capture the edge. Duke’s offense likes to work the perimeter with quick throws, receiver screens, read option runs, sprint option runs, and more. It’s important for Virginia’s defenders to keep those quick-hitters in front of them, set the edge, and then let the speed and pursuit take over from there. The Blue Devils will test the Hoos’ discipline with tackling, assignments, and reads, but the key in almost every scenario is to make sure the edge defenders stay at home and execute well. On the flipside, there are big plays to be had for the offense on the outside. Duke’s pursuit won’t resemble that of UCLA or Louisville or even BYU so there will be chances to make perimeter plays if the offense can seal the edge long enough for the play-makers to see some daylight.

3. Make the “money” plays. Duke’s defense plays a bend-don’t-break concept for the most part so it will concede yards at times in the running game and even short passes through the air, but then the defenders tackle well and make you execute consistently. That means opponents have to be productive on third down and in the red zone to shatter the Devils’ defensive strategy. They don’t make it easy. Duke is tied for 30th nationally in third down conversion percentage allowed (33.33%) and is tied (with UVa and Northwestern) for 36th nationally in red zone touchdown percentage allowed (52.63%). Virginia enters the game in 41st nationally in third down conversion percentage (44.44%) and 96th nationally in red zone touchdown percentage (53.85%).

The Pick

It’s October and Virginia’s bid to go from worst to first in the Coastal Division is off to a good start. There’s a long ways to go though and winning on the road is the next major hurdle in the turn-around effort. With a bye week to help the cause, UVa could create some working room in the division race with a win in Durham.

Virginia can win if … a turnover or big play doesn’t short-circuit the effort. In the last road game at BYU, an interception early, a kick return late, and busted coverage in the middle were enough to leave Provo with a loss. In evenly matched games like essentially every Coastal Division match-up, it only takes two or three bad plays to turn the outcome. Virginia doesn’t have to be perfect, but it does have to avoid the big game-changing moments at Duke.

Virginia can lose if … it fails to execute in the second half. The last two seasons, UVa led Duke at the half (17-14 in 2013 and 22-7 last season), but saw lopsided scores after intermission (28-0 in both years). That’s not unusual for the Blue Devils, though. They own a 103-42 edge in the second half so far this season. One half won’t be enough to get a win against a tough-minded Duke team that has confidence in its ability to close out games.

And the winner is … Virginia. The Hoos have been checking off streak-breaking wins all season long. An 11-game losing streak ended against Richmond. The FBS losing streak, an ACC losing streak that dated back to Nov. 10, 2012, and a losing streak against ranked teams dating back to 2011 all ended against Louisville. An eight-game October losing streak stopped against Pitt. Next on the list is a road win. The Wahoos haven’t won away from Charlottesville since a 33-6 victory at NC State on Nov. 3, 2012. Duke’s seven-game home winning streak stands in the way, but this UVa team has a quiet resolve about it this season and most of the match-ups favor the Hoos too. Virginia 27, Duke 17. Prediction record to date: 5-1.

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