Virginia Basketball Sweet 16 Primer: Iowa State

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Malcolm Brogdon hopes to find some operating room on offense against Iowa State. ~ Kris Wright

After pulling away late to beat Butler last Saturday, the Virginia Cavaliers (28-7) head to the Windy City to square off against the Iowa State Cyclones (23-11) in the Sweet 16. Will the Wahoos advance to the Elite Eight for the first time since 1995? Find out how they can win in Chicago with the Iowa State Primer.

Team Introduction

After five years at his alma mater, Fred Hoiberg left Ames last June to take over as coach for the Chicago Bulls. He was replaced by Steve Prohm, who had spent four years as head coach at Murray State after five years as Billy Kennedy’s assistant. There were high expectations on Prohm and his team, which was ranked No. 7 in both the preseason Associated Press and Coaches’ Polls.

The Cyclones came out of the gate fast, winning their first eight games, including four against teams that made the NCAA Tournament (7 seed Iowa, 8 seed Colorado, 12 seed Chattanooga, and 14 seed Buffalo). After game No. 8, however, starting shooting guard Nazareth Jersey (“Naz”) Mitrou-Long (12 points per game*) called it a season so that he could recover from the lingering effects of offseason hip surgery. (*Stats in this piece come from espn.go.com, kenpom.com, matchup-zone.com, and teamrankings.com.)

Mitrou-Long’s departure left an already thin ‘Clones team in need of some actual clones. In addition to Iowa State’s starting five, only backups Deonte Burton and Hallice Cook (18.7 and 10.9 minutes per game) see more than spot duty. This lack of depth led to a disappointing 10-8 finish in Big 12 play and a first round conference tournament loss to Oklahoma. Statistically, this can be seen in the team’s 320 Pomeroy luck rating, meaning that the Cyclones lost many more close games than they won (2-6 in games decided in overtime and/or by 4 points or less).

Team cohesion also appears to be part of the problem. Prohm suspended both Cook and starting center Jameel McKay at different points during conference play. The team tried to right the ship with a players-only meeting on Feb. 18 that didn’t pay immediate dividends (3-3 to close the season). But Iowa State has looked impressive in the NCAA Tournament, with a pair of double-digit victories over double-digit seeds (beating Iona 94-81 and Arkansas-Little Rock 78-61). The Cyclones are ranked No. 23 in the RPI and No. 16 in the Pomeroy rankings, but they are only 2-8 against the RPI top 25 and 3-8 against the top 27 teams in the Pomeroy rankings.

Offense

While at Iowa State, Hoiberg installed a freewheeling offense that pushed the tempo, spread the floor, and created high percentage shots through precise passes. Many believe that Prohm was hired because of his similar offensive philosophy. This year’s team doesn’t play quite as fast as last year’s team (No. 57 in adjusted tempo vs. No. 17), but it’s even more efficient (No. 3 in adjusted offensive efficiency vs. No. 11) and less reliant on transition buckets. Prohm runs a lot of isolation sets that create one-on-one scoring opportunities for the team’s two leading scorers: senior power forward Georges Niang and junior point guard Monte Morris. Much of the offense is predicated on ball movement, and Prohm also likes to run sets that feature high ball screens that allow for drives ending in easy hoops or kickouts to shooters beyond the arc. Here are some examples.

Iowa State is a solid No. 23 in the country in 3-point percentage (38.6%), and one of the best two-point shooting teams in the nation (56.6%; No. 5 nationally). But the team is much less accurate from the charity stripe (70.3%; No. 158 nationally), and the Cyclones don’t get there very often (No. 309 in adjusted free throw rate).

The Cyclones didn’t have any problems carving up the minor league version of the Pack-Line Defense employed by an Arkansas-Little Rock team coming off a double overtime upset of Purdue. Friday’s game might come down to how well they can get their shots off against the version played by a bigger, stronger Virginia squad that will likely employ hard hedges on high screens and double the post most of the time that Niang touches the rock.

Defense

Iowa State primarily plays man-to-man defense, but Prohm will sometimes employ the 2-3 zone when his players can’t stay in front of opponents. In particular, the Cyclones have had trouble this season preventing penetration, defending the pick and roll, rotating into help-side defense, and closing out on 3-point shooters. As a result, Iowa State is No. 92 in adjusted defensive efficiency, third worst among Sweet 16 teams. The Cyclones aren’t great at cleaning the defensive glass (No. 121 in adjusted defensive rebounding rate), and they do a poor job at creating turnovers (No. 161 in adjusted turnover rate). As these stats illustrate, Iowa State’s plays passive man defense, which explains why they allow the third lowest adjusted free throw rate in the country.

That said, it’s mainly the Cyclones’ guards that stay out of foul trouble. In his last 8 games, Niang fouled out three times and had a four foul game while McKay had two foul-outs and two four foul games over the same stretch. If UVA can get Niang in foul trouble, Iowa State will suffer greatly on offense; if fouls cause McKay to ride the pine, the Cyclones take a big hit on the defensive end.

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Starters

Point Guard: Monte Morris (No. 11), a 6’2”, 170-pound junior, scores 13.9 points per game and sports a terrific 6.9/1.6 assist/turnover ratio, the best among active players. As you might expect from this ratio, Morris has great court vision and acuity with both post-entry passes and lobs above the defense. Morris is also a solid shooter overall (48.9%) and from beyond the arc (36.9%). He should be matched up initially against either London Perrantes or Devon Hall, who will have to do their best to keep in front of the speedy Morris. On the other side of the ball, Morris is a decent defender, but isn’t very physical and has lapses, especially toward the end of games, which is unsurprising given his team-leading 38 minutes per game. As a result, you can expect that Perrantes will be able to get his share of open looks from 3.

Shooting Guard: Matt Thomas (No. 21), a 6’4”, 195-pound junior, stepped in as the starting “2” after the early end to Mitrou-Long’s season and is averaging 10.9 points per game. Readers might recall that Thomas picked the ‘Clones over the Hoos after Tony Bennett’s hot pursuit of him as the heir apparent to Joe Harris. Like Harris, Thomas is a sniper from 3-point land, averaging 43.3% on 5.9 attempts per game. Thomas has developed his dribble drive game a bit this year, but he’s still more of a spot shooter than anything else, which is why he only averages about a free throw a game. Hall or Perrantes likely will be tasked with defending Thomas, and the key will be closing out on Thomas to prevent giving up the easy 3. Defensively, Thomas had trouble staying in front of defenders during his first two years in Ames, but he improved his lateral quickness in the offseason and is now adequate on that side of the ball.

Small Forward: Abdel Nader (No. 2) is a redshirt senior who tips the scales at 6’6” and 230 pounds. He’s the third leading scorer on the Iowa State roster, averaging 13.2 points per game to go along with 5 rebounds a contest. After shooting a disappointing 21.7% from behind the arc last season, Nader is averaging 37% this season (on 4.1 attempts per game) and has flashed an increased ability to drive the lane. The question is whether he will be able to have success on either front when matched against ACC Defensive Player of the Year Malcolm Brogdon, who could get the assignment initially. Nader also isn’t known for his speed or defensive prowess, so Brogdon should have some opportunities to drive and deliver, as he did in the victory over Butler.

Power Forward: Georges Niang (No. 31) is a 6’8”, 230-pound senior power forward and one of the best players in the nation. He’s No. 8 in the Pomeroy Player of the Year Standings, just ahead of Anthony Gill (Brogdon is No. 1). Niang is a Swiss Army Knife type of a player who can kill you inside or outside as he always seems to find the right angle. He can play with his back to the basket, put the ball on the floor, or hurt you from beyond the arc (39% on 4 attempts/game). Overall, Niang is averaging 6.2 rebounds and 20.2 points per game on 54.6% shooting. That said, Niang is more of crafty, old-man basketball type of player than the long, athletic types like Brandon Ingram and Jaron Blossomgame who have given UVA fits this season. As such, I don’t expect as much of a matchup problem for Isaiah Wilkins, even though Niang will likely be the best player he’s faced all season. We also can expect some four-guard lineups, with the battle of unstoppable force Niang against immovable object Brogdon. Finally, while Niang is an offensive machine, he’s more of a workday defender who isn’t going to shut down the frontcourt.

Center: Jameel McKay (No. 1), a redshirt senior, was the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year last season. McKay is a high-energy guy, who uses his 6’9”, 215-pound frame to secure nine rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game. McKay has a few back-to-the-basket moves, but he’s not much of a creator or jump shooter. A big chunk of his points (11.3 per game) come from dunks and put-backs, explaining his 60.2% shooting percentage. When McKay heads to the line, though, he’s only hitting about half of his free throws. Anthony Gill should be able to stay with McKay defensively in the expected initial lineups, and McKay likewise has the quicks to be able to check Gill. The question for the Cyclones is how McKay will respond to Gill’s physicality.

Key Reserves

Guard/Forward: Speaking of physicality, junior Deonte Burton (No. 30) gets the bulk of the bench minutes. Built like a B-52, the 6’4”, 240-pounder became eligible midseason after transferring from Marquette. Burton plays mostly in the post and has the speed and athleticism to take people off the dribble. He’s also very efficient, registering just under 10 points per game on 52.5% shooting from the field and 45.9% accuracy from behind the arc. Burton has averaged about 15 minutes over the last six games. I’m guessing that Marial Shayok will mostly match up with him, but coach Tony Bennett has a good deal of defensive flexibility at the 1-4 spots.

Point/Shooting Guard: If redshirt sophomore shooting guard Hallice Cooke (No. 3) goes for significant minutes, it’s likely because it’s a blowout or the Cyclones have foul trouble. In three postseason games, the 6’3”, 190-pound Cooke has logged a total of 24 minutes and entered the scoring sheet with a total of 3 points and 4 fouls. Cooke is a good on-the-ball defender and facilitator, but he has a slow release that makes it difficult to get his shot off, especially against long defenders like Hall.

Prediction

Coach Bennett has said that the Cyclones are most similar to UNC from a style standpoint and Duke in terms of personnel, with the latter comparison borne out by their relative efficiency scores. Given the close games played against those teams, the Hoos can expect another nailbiter on Friday with the degree of difficulty increased by the fact that the team might see more red and yellow at the United Center than there is on the Wienermobile.

That said, Iowa State has lost most of its close games this year, and UVA has the depth and physicality to pull away toward the end, as it did against Butler. This should be a game with few offensive rebounds, turnovers, or transition buckets, with the question being which team can be more efficient in the half-court game. TeamRankings.com has this one as a 73.5-68.5 win for the Wahoos while TAPE predicts a 63 possession game won by Virginia by a score of 74.6-69.1.

These numbers sound about right to me. I’ll take the Hoos cracking open a close game late and pulling out a 71-66 win.

1 Responses You are logged in as Test

  1. ISU loses this one bigger than this. Niang will pick up 2 fouls within the first 5 minutes & ride the bench for most of the first half. ISU will trail the entire game and make a come back late in the 2nd half, but it will be for not, with Niang fouling out. ISU loses by 10+

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