The Virginia football team lost its season opener to Richmond on Saturday, 37-20. Wait, what? Who saw that coming? Not us here at The Sabre and not the voters in our poll that’s for sure. The picks all sided with the Hoos.
A week later, we’re all back with an 0-1 record. The Cavaliers, meanwhile, face an even bigger task in week two. They must travel all the way across the country to take on No. 24 Oregon. Oh boy.
These are the Ducks that rolled into Charlottesville in 2013 and left with a 59-10 win. These are the Ducks that won their season opener 53-28. These are the Ducks that have not lost a non-conference home game since Boise State visited in 2008. These are the Ducks that are 40-7 in regular season non-conference games since 2000. These are the Ducks that are 19-3 in home games under current coach Mark Helfrich. These are the Ducks that have an 83.9% winning percentage since 1997, which ranks fourth nationally. These are the Ducks that sold out 110 straight home games until last week’s game with UC Davis.
That sounds like great scheduling for an East Coast team hitting the reset button with hopes of finding past success. Or not.
Regardless, the Hoos have a chance to pull off a whale of an upset at a highly unlikely time in program history. Of course, a Virginia team in a similar boat nearly did just that back in 2010. In Mike London’s first season, the Cavaliers played at then No. 16 USC when no on expected much of a contest and barely lost 17-14.
So what can these Wahoos do? Read our picks and then it is your turn! Vote in the poll to let us know who wins and share your score in the comments if you like.
The Picks
Virginia can win if … it scores a lot of points. Considering how the defense looked in the opener and how good Oregon always looks on offense, the Cavaliers probably can only get a win if they do it in a shootout. For that to happen, the Hoos are going to need to be better on third down this week and they’ll need to keep up the firepower in the red zone where they scored two touchdowns in three trips last week.
Virginia can lose if … it lets Oregon run wild. The Ducks are known as a high-scoring offense for a good reason and a lot of the work gets done on the ground. Oregon has led the Pac-12 for 10 straight years in rushing yards. In every season since 2007, the offense has averaged better than 200 yards per game on the ground. The program has produced a 1,000-yard rusher for nine straight season. Plus, the Ducks lead the nation in rushing touchdowns since the start of the 2010 season with 254 of them. UVA allowed 187 rushing yards and 4.6 yards per carry last week against Richmond so a similar effort in run defense will spell disaster this week.
And the winner is …
Editor Kris Wright: This doesn’t feel like a fair fight does it? I mean Virginia hasn’t won a road game since 2012. Oregon hasn’t lost a non-conference home game since 2008. This looks like a recipe for trouble no matter how you look at it. On the bright side, it makes the pick easy. UVA keeps it closer than expected, but not that close really. OREGON 51, VIRGINIA 31. Season record: 0-1.
Associate Editor Chris Horne: Oregon’s offense, which features a new quarterback and four new offensive linemen, racked up 522 yards of offense (271 passing, 251 rushing) in a 53-28 win over UC-Davis last Saturday. Richmond carved up Virginia’s defense to the tune of 524 yards and 37 points. Just from a confidence standpoint, it will be tough for the Virginia D to rebound against an offense that features one of the top running backs in the nation and dynamic receivers. Oregon will put up big points against the Hoos, though I think Virginia should be able to score against a suspect defense that allowed more than 300 yards passing and 20 first downs to UC Davis. Oregon will win, but hopefully this Virginia team will respond to the UR loss with resolve and better play. OREGON 49, VIRGINIA 28. Season record: 0-1.
Sabre analyst Greg Waters: We should get a chance to see the impact of whatever simplification Coach Mendenhall puts into place defensively this week. Oregon has been ranked among the top five offensively and in points per game since 2010. The Ducks highly balanced run/pass system will be a huge test for the adjustments. If the Wahoo defense can hold Oregon to less than 42 points, it will be unusual since the Ducks have been kept under 38 points only 14 times in their last 97 contests. OREGON 48, VIRGINIA 20. Season record: 0-1.
Sabre analyst Ahmad Hawkins (check out The Ball Hawk Show podcast!): Upset Alert!! The Cavaliers have no choice but to return the favor and upset an Oregon squad that is on record saying they will win by 50 points! Yes, I am picking with my heart right now and if a team says they will beat my Cavaliers by 50, you better believe I’m picking the upset. I don’t know how we are going to win, but we will win. VIRGINIA 44, OREGON 41. Season record: 0-1.
Sabre meteorologist BadgerHoo: An awesome day in the Pacific Northwest with warm sunshine and highs 80-85. Temperatures drop off quickly after sunset, so a light jacket is a good call. For the game, the Hoos can’t get enough stops. OREGON 48, VIRGINIA 21. Season record: 0-1.
The Poll
[yop_poll id=”2″]
