This Saturday’s matchup is between two programs in transition. The Virginia football team is in the second season of the Bronco Mendenhall era as he tries to translate consistent success at BYU to Charlottesville. Randy Edsall is back with UConn for a second time after guiding the program to the FBS level and bowl appearances the first time around.
It’s hard to predict what that will produce on the field at Scott Stadium. The oddsmakers like the Hoos by 10.5 points and UVA did notch both wins against FBS competition last season by double digits. Still, you have to go back to late in the 2014 to find the next double-digit victory. The Cavaliers just haven’t been consistent enough to get wins in general, much less wins by big margins.
In some ways, that makes this game with Connecticut a significant benchmark game. Last season, the Hoos led the Huskies 10-0 but lost 13-10. With both programs trying to re-establish better days, the Cavaliers are further along the rebuilding curve in Mendenhall’s second season. If they’re able to meet oddsmakers’ guess, it could be a sign of progress and growing confidence. If not … well.
Virginia believes it is making the right steps back to sustained success. A win against the Huskies would help others see signs of progress too possibly.
“I think we’re a significantly better team and I think we’ve seen that in two games,” Mendenhall said. “I’m not asking anyone else to see it, but I see it. And thinking back to that game, wow, that was such a different place. But there are things that I haven’t managed before but I’m managing now, but that’s part of building a program. It’s invigorating and exhausting at the same time. With frustration kind of mixed as a thread within there, but I’m optimistic. The players feel it, they sense it, and they know it’s happening. That just makes it harder when things don’t go our way because we all think we had a nice chance in that game we just played.”
Kris’ Keys To Winning
1. Be more explosive. It’s been a repetitive note in our coverage, but it’s obvious from the eye test too – UVA needs to make bigger plays on offense to help improve its efficiency. The Cavaliers are among the worst teams in the nation in the yards per play category (4.10 yards per play this season ranks 124th nationally out of 130 Football Bowl Subdivision teams and 4.86 yards per play last season ranked 119th). The Hoos have posted five plays of 20+ yards in the first two games, while Connecticut put up six in its lone game against Holy Cross. A year ago, UVA finished 127th nationally with only 36 20+yard plays from scrimmage. Long, methodical scoring drives of dink-and-dunk plays are great when they happen, but it’s not a sustainable way to win football games.
2. Don’t let the Huskies’ offense Bloom. Through the first two games this season, some tight end routes have given the UVA defense trouble. It hasn’t been a back-breaking, game-deciding problem so far but the Huskies have a potential weapon at tight end in Alec Bloom. While he only had one catch for 18 yards in his team’s season opener, he’s a threat with more than 450 receiving yards in his career. The big focus should be on receiver Hergy Mayala and running back Nate Hopkins after both cracked 100 yards against Holy Cross while combining for all four UConn touchdowns, but it will be important not to lose track of the other weapons.
3. No helping. Against Indiana last week, special teams assisted the Hoosiers’ offense in a big way. The Hoos gave up a punt return touchdown and field position that contributed to possibly as many as 17 other points in the 34-17 loss. In the past, including last season’s UConn game, key turnovers have helped turn the tables on Virginia’s chances of winning. Even penalties at poor times an be costly with an ill-timed personal foul or block in the back. The Cavaliers have cleaned up the latter two categories with no turnovers yet in 2017 and reduced penalties overall. If they can do that and play clean on special teams, this should be a good chance to get a win.
The Picks
Sabre Editor Kris Wright: Looking back at some of my picks during the Bronco Mendenhall era, including last week’s whiff with Indiana, one thing jumps out: I always think the Hoos can score more points than they have in reality when the game is over. In fairness, that likely goes back further than Mendenhall’s arrival. Studying opponents, I often think I see chances to take advantage of certain places on the field. As of late, it’s just not happening though. UVA has scored 20 points or less in six of its last eight games with one of the outliers being 28 points against FCS foe William & Mary. Long story short – I think the Hoos win this week and I think they should score some points. I won’t pick it that way, though. VIRGINIA 24, UCONN 13. Season to date: 1-1.
Sabre Associated Editor Chris Horne: Neither Virginia nor UConn is coming off confidence-inspiring performances. Indiana was able to dispatch of UVA thanks to poor play from the Cavalier special teams and offense units, while UConn squeaked by Holy Cross in Week 1 before having an unscheduled bye because of Hurricane Irma. Frankly, I still don’t have a lot of confidence in Virginia’s offense, but I think the unit will be able to put up enough points while a quality Wahoo defense holds the Huskies at bay. Virginia had a great opportunity to beat UConn in Storrs last season. They’ll get the job done at home this year and rebound from the IU performance. VIRGINIA 24, UCONN 10. Season to date: 1-1.
