Keys & Picks – Virginia Football At Boise State

The Virginia football team travels to Boise State.
Kurt Benkert threw three touchdown passes in the win against UConn. ~ Kris Wright

The Virginia football team opened this season with three straight home games, which produced two wins and a game within reach if not for some special teams miscues and an inefficent day offensively. After standing 0-3 at the same stage a year ago, the 2-1 record marked a notable turnaround to the start of the year.

In some ways, last week’s victory against Connecticut looked like one of the best performances of the Bronco Mendenhall era to date. The victory breathed a lot of confidence into the team and fanbase. It created sugar plum visions of a possible win against Boise State this week.

That road thing, though.

Virginia has lost 23 of its last 25 games on the road. That included a 17-game losing streak at one point that nearly spanned four years before Mendenhall’s group stopped the string at Duke last season. Even more important than the losses themselves, perhaps, is the margin of defeat. The Hoos have lost by an average of 14.9 points per game over those 23 contests.

So one of the next challenges for the program is clearly to reverse it’s road performance. The first chance to do that in 2017 comes with Friday night’s contest at Boise State. The blue turf is certainly a challenging place to try to reset the road mindset. The Broncos have won 24 straight non-conference games at home and they’re 104-6 at home since 2000.

The oddsmakers don’t like that mix when it comes to UVA’s chances. They’ve made Boise State a 13-point favorite. An upset win clearly would be a huge boost going into the bye week. Beyond that, however, Hoo fans continue to look for signs of progress in Mendenhall’s second season. Playing more competitively on the road would be a big step.

Kris’ Keys To Winning

1. Mix up the rushing attack. Virginia has rushed for 100 yards or more just eight times in 15 games under Bronco Mendenhall. One of the most successful games in that regard came against UConn last week when the Hoos put up 171 yards. Variety helped the cause there. While only four players logged carries, they all did it in different ways. UVA used receivers, tight ends, and running backs at the point of attack as blockers. The Cavaliers used off tackle plays, end-arounds, and scrambles. Boise State is stingy against he run (26th nationally, 98.67 yards per game allowed) so just powering straight ahead likely won’t work. Mix it up again and hope for similar results.

2. Don’t get tricked. One of Connecticut’s touchdowns last week came on a trick play where an end-around flea flicker opened up a 60-yard touchdown catch for Hergy Mayala. Boise State established a reputation over the years as a team willing to dial up tricky calls on offense, something that Mendenhall referenced Monday: ”Boise is always really aggressive at the beginning of the game. They prefer to get out in front in kind of shock and awe and gadget or trick or momentum or tempo or something unique and different.” One player to watch in this regard is quarterback Brett Rypien, who has two touchdown catches in his career. Here’s a look at one of them, a toss play that turns into a reverse quarterback throwback.

3. Get Kurt Benkert comfortable early. Against Connecticut, Kurt Benkert completed 11 of his first 12 passes, including his first seven attempts. That included six passes on first down as the Huskies gave cushions to receivers. He finished 30-of-40 passing for a program record 455 yards with three touchdowns. Once the offense and Benkert gained steam on the first drive of the game, the Hoos appeared to have rhythm for much of the day. As mentioned above, Boise State is tough against the run, but the defense is not as strong against the pass (60th nationally at 217 yards per game allowed). You can’t let the Broncos dictate things both rushing and passing so getting Benkert into a comfort zone early seems like an important piece of the puzzle.

The Picks

Sabre Editor Kris Wright: Virginia appears to be making progress under Bronco Mendenhall. There are flashes of high level play. The team took care of business against two teams it should have beaten on paper at home. This game, however, is on the road against a team that holds the fort as well as anyone at home. Until the Hoos show better consistency on the road, it doesn’t make sense to pick an upset. Fans will be looking for signs of improved play and execution on the road – if a win comes with that, everyone will enjoy the bye week bonus! BOISE STATE 30, VIRGINIA 22. Season to date: 2-1.

Sabre Associate Editor Chris Horne: Bronco Mendenhall says his team has improved in every week this season. After last Saturday’s performance, the Hoos should feel confident heading to Boise State. I see this being a close game with Virginia having a real chance to win. A short week coupled with a far-away contest against a good team isn’t good for a team with minimal depth, though. I see the Broncos fending off the Cavaliers late. BOISE STATE 28, VIRGINA 20. Season to date 2-1.