Overview
Over the last two seasons the Tar Heels have surpassed Duke for ACC futility and they probably won’t catch up in 2004. While the Carolina offense scored a respectable 26.4 points per game last season, its defense was simply abysmal, yielding 38.3 points per game.
With that, North Carolina won only two games last season, finishing last in the conference standings, but did so with one of the younger teams in the ACC. A total of 12 true freshmen played in 2003. The Heels lost four games by eight points or fewer (Syracuse, Arizona State, Clemson and Duke) but also lost four by 17 or more, including three by more than 25 points. The Carolina offense was average, finishing fifth in total, rushing and passing yards and seventh in scoring. The defense, however, was atrocious. The Heels finished last in the league in total, rushing and scoring defense and seventh against the pass.
The UNC coaching staff spent most of training camp focused on improving a secondary leakier than the Titanic and trying to fix a defense that had difficulty maintaining focus and produced a league-low 10 turnovers in 2003.
If the season opener against William and Mary was any indication of what Carolina fans will experience in 2004, it will be a lot like 2003. The offense will again be expected to carry the team while the defense sputters and flutters through another disastrous season. The offense had its issues also, handing the Tribe four turnovers before rallying for a 49-38 victory.
Bottom line, this is not a good football team and John Bunting’s charges have more questions than answers. Fact is, they’re just plain bad.
The Carolina Offense
One area where there are no questions is at quarterback. Darian Durant is the owner of virtually every Carolina career passing and total offense record. In three seasons, Durant has set Tar Heel career records in passing yards (6,517), completions (523), attempts (860), touchdowns (51), completion percentage (.608) and total offense (7,204 yards).
“If you ask any coach that plays against us, they are extremely concerned about what Darian might do that day,” Bunting said. “He’s a terrific athlete.”
If Durant played for Virginia, Florida State or Maryland, he would be among the favorites to win the Heisman. He is the best quarterback in the ACC but is overshadowed by players like Chris Rix and Charlie Whitehurst, who have better offensive coordinators and better overall talent around them.
Durant has also been named to the 2003 Davey O’Brien National Quarterback Award watch list.
Over the last three seasons, the Heels have had difficulty finding one go-to running back. Much like 2002 and 2003, running backs coach Andre Powell (who came to the Tar Heels from Virginia) is employing a running back by committee strategy again this fall. But there is hope.
In 2003, Carolina led the league and finished 16th in the nation with 4.7 yards per carry, despite using a two-back system that did not include a traditional bruiser at fullback. That will change this season as Madison Hedgecock, a former fullback turned defensive end, returns to the position. Hedgecock moved to defense last season to try and shore up the front line. But with the strength of the Carolina team being the offense, it appears Bunting wants to get his best players on that side of the ball.
Carolina may have also found a feature back in sophomore Ronnie McGill. McGill headlines a tailback trio that also includes seniors Jacque Lewis and Chad Scott, a former Kentucky transfer. The trio tallied 1,210 yards last season on 228 carries for a solid 5.3 yards per carry average. Look for Lewis to be the primary receiver out of the backfield. Last fall he finished third on the team with 34 receptions for 391 yards and five scores.
In the opener against William and Mary, McGill rushed for 133 yards, 100 coming in the final quarter. Lewis rushed for 123 yards and a touchdown as the Heels posted 341 rushing yards.
The Heels have an offensive line capable of opening some holes but they must continue to protect Durant. In 2002 the front five surrendered a league-worst 46 sacks. Last year that number dropped to 22.
Anchoring the line is senior center Jason Brown. Brown is not only one of the strongest players on the team, he is one of the smartest. That’s good, especially for a center. Jason finished in the top 10 of his class academically at the renowned North Carolina Governor’s School. Brown possesses excellent quickness for an offensive lineman with his size and should be one of top linemen in the league this season.
Junior Kyle Ralph came out of a redshirt season midway through the 2002 campaign to start the final five games of the year and was a valuable backup in 2003. He has good mobility and will return to the starter’s role at left guard. Redshirt freshman Charlston Gray was listed as the starter at right guard but it was junior Brian Chacos who got the nod against the Tribe.
In 2001, Willie McNeill became the first Tar Heel freshman to start on the offensive line since 1994. Since then, the left tackle has established himself as Carolina’s best pass blocker. McNeill played in all 13 games (10 starts) during his freshman season and participated in 11 games last season, also starting 10. At right tackle, Skip Seagraves is a 12-game starter who can play either right or left tackle. He is becoming a solid run blocker, possesses good mobility and is quick off the block.
The leader of the receiving unit is Jarwarski Pollock. The junior is by far UNC’s leading receiver from a year ago and the returning team leader in both receptions and yardage. A lightning-quick speedster, Pollock completed 2002 with 31 catches for 464 yards and doubled those numbers last season with 71 receptions for 745 yards.
The other likely starter and viable deep threat is junior Derrele Mitchell. Mitchell was one of seven true freshmen to see action for the Heels in 2002, making 15 receptions for 232 yards. His 15.5 yards per reception average led all UNC receivers that year. IN 2003 Mitchell caught 17 passes for only 146 yards. He has a chance to be the go-to guy but must improve on his consistency.
Sophomores Adarius Bowman and Mike Mason will also see plenty of playing time against the ‘Hoos. The pair posted 32 catches last season for 494 yards (15.4 yards per catch average) and scored five of Carolina’s 21 receiving touchdowns
Senior Scott Brumett, a three-year starter at linebacker for East Tennessee State, enrolled in January at UNC, converted to tight end and won the starter’s job for the opener against William and Mary.
The Carolina Defense
Last year North Carolina gave up over 500 yards of offense to an opponent eight times and allowed 11 teams to score 30 or more points, including four that posted 40-plus. It’s hard to believe that back in 2001 Carolina led the ACC in total defense and recorded 79 sacks. The 2003 Tar Heels finished last in the league in total defense, rushing defense, and scoring defense, and eighth in sacks. It’s also hard to believe that the Tar Heel defense can be any worse this season, so things could be looking up in Chapel Hill.
Or not. Senior Chase Page, probably the team’s best defensive lineman, tore a flexor tendon in the pinkie finger of his left hand in preseason practice and was lost for the season. Page was replaced by Shelton Bynum on the Carolina interior line. Bynum played in 10 games as a true freshman last season, starting three.
One promising prospect is sophomore Isaiah “Puff” Thomas, who was rated the 10th-best defensive tackle in the nation by Rivals and the No. 3 player in North Carolina by the Charlotte Observer out of high school. As a true freshman, Thomas played in 11 games last season, starting the last five, and posted 36 tackles.
With the season-ending injury to Will Chapman in 2002, Tommy Davis took over the starting role at end for the final five games of the season. Davis appeared in all 11 games last year, including five starts, posting 30 tackles, two tackles for loss and six quarterback pressures.
Sophomore Brian Rackley and Virginia native and true freshmen Khalif Mitchell competed in camp for the other starting defensive end job. Both played against the Tribe with Rackley getting the start. That could change this weekend.
Junior Tommy Richardson moved from safety to linebacker in the spring and impressed the coaching staff enough to earn the starting nod in the season opener.
A reserve linebacker and special teams standout a year ago, Fred Sparkman made the most of his starting debut at middle linebacker as he led the Tar Heels with 14 tackles and three quarterback hurries last weekend.
Jeff Longhany and Tommy Richardson are the likely starters at outside linebacker. Longhany has participated in 24 career games with six starts.
Track star Jacoby Watkins is one of the fastest players on the team. He played in nine games as a true freshman and won the job at cornerback to start the 2004 season. JUCO transfer Lionell Green returns to the top of the depth chart at cornerback after starting eight games last year.
Gerald Sensabaugh has over 30 starts from his days at East Tennessee State University, but this is his first season as a starter in the ACC. Former walk-on Linwood Williams saw his first action as a Tar Heel at starting safety Saturday against William and Mary. Williams switched from wide receiver to safety in the spring.
Sensabaugh finished second on the team in tackles against the Tribe with nine and Watkins added five.
Special Teams
Carolina fans saw significant improvement in the Tar Heel special teams last fall and are expecting that trend to continue in 2004. Kickoff return man Mike Mason finished 18th in the nation last year and returns for his sophomore season.
Sophomore punter David Wooldridge was a late-season surprise, finishing the year with a 45.1-yard average and nine boots inside the 20.
The Heels will need to find someone to replace dangerous punt returner Michael Waddell and kicker Dan Orner. High school All-American Connor Barth got the nod against William and Mary and hit on all seven of his PAT attempts.
Carolina Offense vs. Virginia Defense
The Heels had a lot of success running the football against William and Mary, posting 341 yards and a 7.6 yard per carry average. Keep in mind that a significant amount of that yardage came in the second half as Carolina’s bigger front line wore down Tribe defenders.
The Heels have one of the better offensive lines in the league and there is no question that their offense is explosive. Gary Tranquill will try and test the Virginia run defense this weekend. The ‘Hoos, however, possess the top front line in the conference and solid depth to spell the starting three. This unit will not wear down and Virginia’s ball-control offense will help to keep the defense off the field.
After watching the Cavs aggressively attack the Temple offense, most fans would expect more of the same this weekend against Carolina. In fact, in last year’s game in Chapel Hill the ‘Hoos recorded five sacks against Durant.
But if the Cavaliers blitz Durant on every play, they could pay a hefty price. Durant has a big-time arm, some top-flight receivers and runs to buy time – not necessarily to scramble for yardage. Durant is always thinking pass first. It will be critical for the secondary and linebackers to remain in their zones and not bite on Durant’s runs and pump fakes. Be willing to give a six-yard Durant run as opposed to a 65-yard Durant touchdown pass.
Virginia will attack the Heels but look for more situational-based blitzes as opposed to a full-game strategy as we saw against Temple.
The most critical issue for Virginia will be to correct some of the coverage issues that occurred against Temple and improve on a poor tackling effort from a week ago. If the ‘Hoos can accomplish these tasks and limit the big-play capability of the Tar Heels, expect another solid effort by the defense.
Carolina Defense vs. Virginia Offense
In football, the normal game plan when facing an outmanned opponent is to rely on the run to control the clock and shorten the game. In a similar situation a week ago, the Virginia coaching staff ran its basic offense for three quarters before turning the final stanza over to the offensive line and the running game. Expect more of the same this week.
The Tar Heels finished last in the ACC against the run last season, giving up an average of 227 yards per game. It should come as no surprise that Virginia had its best rushing day of the year in Chapel Hill as Wali Lundy ran for 129 yards and Alvin Pearman added 94.
So again, look for the run game to be prominent but Carolina’s inexperienced secondary will see plenty of Marques Hagans’ arm. The four starters in the defensive backfield combined for eight starts last season, all belonging to cornerback Lionell Green. Ron Prince will want to continue to improve the rhythm and continuity in the passing game, especially with the loss of Fontel Mines .
UNC gave up at least 300 passing yards six times last season and allowed 250-plus on two other occasions with a unit that included All-ACC performers Dexter Reid and Michael Waddell. For the second week in a row, Prince will have an opportunity to fine tune the passing game against a vulnerable secondary. Don’t be surprised if Hagans sets some new career passing marks again this week.
Last Saturday the Tar Heels struggled all afternoon against William and Mary quarterback Lang Campbell, a taller but less athletic player than Hagans. Bootleg passes were very effective against the UNC defense and the Tribe did not give up a sack. On the day, Campbell was 23 of 41 for 322 yards and two touchdowns.
The Heels will again try and pressure an opponent’s quarterback as they did against the Tribe. Eleven times in that game a Carolina defensive lineman or linebacker had a hand on Campbell. Not once could they get him down. Carolina was listed with 30 “QB Hurries” in 2003; they got a third of that total in one game on Saturday. Look for UNC to deploy the same strategy against Virginia. But this is not William and Mary’s offensive line.
The Edge
Quarterbacks – Edge Carolina
Running Backs – Edge Virginia
Wide Receivers – Even
Tight Ends – Edge Virginia
Offensive Line – Edge Virginia
Defensive Line – Edge Virginia
Linebackers – Edge Virginia
Secondary – Edge Virginia
Special Teams – Even
Stone-Cold Lock Prediction
This season the “Under the Gun” honor clearly goes to John Bunting at North Carolina. Bunting arrived at UNC as a defensive specialist, but that unit has gotten worse each year. In three years, he has compiled a 13-24 record, including 7-17 in conference play. Only Duke has been worse, but the Heels lost to the Blue Devils last fall for the first time since 1989. The ‘baby blue” faithful will likely not tolerate another losing season, especially if one of those losses is to Duke.
As a Virginia fan, I do not deny taking some pleasure in the misfortune of our neighbors to the south, but the last two seasons made even me feel sorry for the Tar Heels. The inexperienced players that plagued Carolina last season are a year older and are no longer a viable excuse. The Heels were also beset with numerous injuries to key players in a “if it can go wrong, it did go wrong” 2003 season. If they can remain healthy and develop some depth, there will be improvement.
But it won’t come against Virginia.
Prior to 1998, the home team had won eight straight in the UVA-UNC series. Virginia won that year in Chapel Hill when Todd Braverman’s 50-yard field goal sailed two inches over the crossbar. After taking a 21-0 halftime lead in Charlottesville two years ago, it appeared Carolina would win at Scott Stadium for the first time since 1981. But true to form, the “Cardiac Cavs” found a way to win and dash the hopes and dreams of powdered-blue-clad Tar Heels everywhere. Sadly for Carolina faithful, the home team will win again on September 11th.
Virginia 41, North Carolina 17
John Galinsky’s take: While I largely agree with Greg’s analysis, I think the Cavaliers will try to put a lot of pressure on Durant with blitzes. I’ll be surprised if Darryl Blackstock and Ahmad Brooks , in particular, sit back in their zones in pass coverage. They’re better as pass rushers, anyway, and they combined for three sacks against Carolina last year. I expect they’ll come off the edges and we’ll find out if Durant is fast enough to elude them. Virginia’s safeties, meanwhile, are likely to play deep and prevent Durant from going long to Bowman. The Heels may succeed with underneath stuff to Pollock, but they’ll have to earn their points and Durant will need to make good decisions under pressure. My bet is he commits two turnovers — one fumble and one interception — and Carolina’s running backs also fumble twice.
If so, it could get ugly. UVa’s offense shouldn’t need much help moving the ball against an inept Tar Heel defense. If the Cavs get good field position with turnovers or long returns, they may score 50 points. Matt Schaub completed 19 of 22 passes for 284 yards and two TDs in last year’s 38-13 rout in Chapel Hill. That sort of efficiency is ridiculous, but Hagans ought to put up big numbers against a UNC secondary that looks even worse than last year’s. Two things might keep the score down: 1) Virginia turnovers, and 2) Long drives. With its commitment to the running game, Virginia might just pound out 15-play drives that chew up the clock. Still, I’d like to see Hagans go deep at least a few times each half.
So I’m guessing five or six TDs and two field goals (Connor Hughes won’t miss) for the Virginia offense, and one TD in each half for the Tar Heels.
John’s prediction: Virginia 45, North Carolina 14.
(For roster cards, depth charts, news and notes on the game, visit our North Carolina-Virginia information page),
