Overview
There were times last season where Syracuse appeared to be a top-20 team, other weeks when it looked closer to the bottom 20. The Orange gave fits to Louisville and Miami, teams that combined for a 20-6 record last season. Syracuse was manhandled by 43 points at Virginia Tech, then throttled a solid Boston College team by 25 a week later. Jekyll and Hyde lost on the road at Rutgers only to rob Notre Dame of a bowl bid with a 38-12 win in the final game of the season to finish 6-6.
“Certainly we are not happy with the number of wins that we have had the last two years,” said Syracuse coach Paul Pasqualoni. “Our expectations are much higher. Last year was a tough year because there were a lot of games we could have won. A play here or a play there got us. The margin of error is very slim at this level of football.”
Following a split Big East title in 1996 and back-to-back outright titles in 1997 and 1998, the Orange has fallen on some rough times. After a 10-3 season and Insight.com Bowl victory against Kansas State in 2001, the Orangemen have gone 12-15 over the past three seasons. With the emergence of Pitt and West Virginia, Syracuse has fallen to the middle of the pack in the Big East and 2004 should be no exception.
The biggest issue is on defense, where after allowing only 19.2 points per game in 2000 and 2001 the Orange has given up 29.4 points per game over the past two seasons. A 51-0 loss in the 2004 season opener to Purdue only continued this trend, though Syracuse rebounded with victories over Buffalo and Cincinnati.
Syracuse Offense
A review of the Syracuse offense must begin with the running attack. The Orange features a two-back attack that includes Doak Walker Award candidate Walter Reyes and big-play man Damien Rhodes.
“When you have two very explosive guys, you would like to get them both in the game. And we will continue to do that,” Pasqualoni said. “They are a great one-two combination and they are outstanding players. They play hard and are into it.”
Syracuse’s most prolific runner is Reyes. The senior ran for 117 yards against Cincinnati last week to increase his career total to 2,830. Throughout his career the All-American candidate has posted 11 100-yard rushing games. The good news for Virginia fans is that eight of those century-mark games have come at home. In the Carrier Dome, Reyes has averaged 86.6 yards per game while on the road that average dips to 61.1.
Reyes is also a threat in the passing game. Until last week he had recorded at least one reception in each of the past 14 games. He has 48 career receptions.
Rhodes has run for at least 80 yards in back-to-back weeks for the first time in his career. He led the Orange with 85 yards on 10 carries at Buffalo and ran for 86 yards on 11 carries last week against Cincinnati. Where Rhodes has really excelled is in making big plays. He has runs of 52 and 46 yards and a 58-yard catch to his credit this season. The ‘Hoos will need to contain both Reyes and Rhodes to limit the effectiveness of the Syracuse offense.
“They’re more similar than they are different,” said UVa coach Al Groh. “They both have good size. Reyes is kind of a Wali Lundy-built type back. Rhodes looks to be a little bit taller. They both have excellent speed. From reading their biographies, Reyes holds the Ohio state 55-meter record for high school runners. That’s pretty fast. It says that Rhodes is 10.5, which is pretty fast, too. And they look it. It’s a fast surface that they’re playing on, too, inside, but they both look it.”
The pair has combined for 394 yards on 80 carries through three games this season.
If the running game powers the offense, the Syracuse two-quarterback system may be its biggest weakness. Sophomore Perry Patterson and freshman Joe Fields have been inconsistent at best and ineffective at worst.
“It would seem that Perry Patterson is taking most of the snaps right now,” Groh said. “They’ve won two games with him doing that. The same plays are being run by both quarterbacks. It really has a lot more bearing on their team than it does on our team.”
Patterson completed 10 passes in 16 attempts for a career-high 156 yards and his first career touchdown against Cincinnati. Patterson has come off the bench in all three of the Orange’s games this season, going 24 of 44 for 281 yards.
Fields started the first three games of the season, but Pasqualoni has named Patterson the starter for Saturday’s game. On the season, Fields is 11 of 23 for 121 yards and two interceptions.
“It feels better because I earned it,” said Patterson. “I’ve been sitting two years. I don’t want to sit anymore. That’s just the hunger in me.”
Syracuse is a physical football team and the offensive line is no exception.
Seniors Matt Tarullo and Adam Terry headline an offensive line that entered the season with solid credentials. Both are candidates for the 2004 Outland Trophy presented to the nation’s top interior lineman. A 2004 team captain, Tarullo moved to center prior to 2004 spring practice to fill a void left by the departure of four-year starter Nick Romeo. He has started 27 games playing both guard and center. Terry has started 28 consecutive games at offensive tackle and was named a second-team All-Big East selection in 2003. Junior guard Steve Franklin is the third returning starter on the Syracuse offensive front, and all three of those players weigh over 320 pounds. The new starters are juniors Jason Greene and Quinn Ojinnaka, who are comparatively small at 300.
Senior receiver Jared Jones had his streak of consecutive games played with at least one catch end at 21 against the Bearcats. Jones has at least three catches in 10 of Syracuse’s last 15 games. He is tied as the Orange’s leading receiver with six catches for 91 yards. His 15.2 yards per catch is also tops on the team. After being a clutch possession receiver in the last two seasons, Jones is evolving into the Orange’s big-play receiver. In three games he already has three catches of 15 yards or more.
Converted cornerback Steve Gregory is tied for the team lead with six catches and is third with 68 receiving yards. Half of Gregory’s catches have converted third downs for the Orange. Gregory did not play against Cincinnati because of a thigh injury.
Andre Fontenette and Landel Bembo are also involved in the passing game. Joe Kowalewski is the starter at tight end.
Syracuse Defense
After surrendering 51 points to Purdue on opening day, Syracuse’s defense showed improvement, allowing 17 points to hapless Buffalo and just 19 to Cincinnati. But neither are what could be called explosive offenses.
Defensive coordinator Steve Dunlap entered the season with six returning starters but a big question mark was the defensive line where he needed to replace three starters. Early on, the Orange has struggled against the run, giving up at least 109 yards in every game, including 237 at Purdue. The defense has yet to register a sack in 2004.
James Wyche had seven tackles, including two stops for a loss, versus Cincinnati. The junior defensive end has at least one tackle for a loss in each of the Orange’s three games. He leads Syracuse with four tackles for a loss and ranks second in the Big East among linemen with 4.7 tackles per game. Senior defensive end Julian Pollard is a veteran on the other end.
On the interior is Virginia native and redshirt freshman Tony Jenkins. He recorded a career-best four tackles against Cincinnati and also blocked a PAT at Purdue. Junior defensive tackle Kader Drame, a converted o-lineman, has posted six tackles on the season and ranks second on the team with two tackles for a loss.
The Syracuse linebackers are solid if not spectacular. Jerry Mackey, a sophomore in the middle of the 4-3 scheme, had a career-best nine tackles at Buffalo and has posted 19 stops on the season. Kellen Pruitt is tied with junior safety Anthony Smith with a team-leading 24 tackles. He tied a career high with 11 tackles against Purdue. Also on the outside is Kelvin Smith, who picked off his second pass of the season against Cincinnati. He made the Sporting News all-freshman team in 2003.
The Syracuse corners, DeAndre LaCaille and Tanard Jackson, are clearly the weak link in the secondary. Both are new starters. The safeties, however, are tenacious, physical and always around the ball. Senior strong safety Diamond Ferri has 144 career tackles, while junior free safety Anthony Smith made 106 tackles last season and tied for third in the Big East in interceptions. Two weeks ago Smith was named the Big East special teams player of the week after blocking two punts at Buffalo and returning one of them for a touchdown. Last week he earned co-Big East defensive player of the week honors with 11 tackles (eight solo), one interception and one blocked kick against Cincinnati.
Syracuse Special Teams
Senior kicker Collin Barber is now ninth on the Syracuse all-time scoring list with 189 points. Barber was one of 30 kickers on the Lou Groza Award preseason watch list. He has made 11 of his last 12 field goals from inside of 40 yards.
Brendan Carney is one of 36 candidates for the Ray Guy Award presented to the nation’s top punter. The sophomore is averaging 41.2 yards per punt and only four of his 19 punts have been returned for an average of 1.8 yards.
Smith, who has blocked three punts, also has returned three punts for 47 yards. Ferri is averaging 34.8 yards per kickoff return, which is third in the nation. That includes a 65-yard return versus Buffalo.
Syracuse Offense vs. the Virginia Defense
“Nobody’s offense has matched up against [the Virginia defense] so far,” Pasqualoni said. “We have some thoughts and we will have a good plan going in there.”
They’ll need one.
Syracuse did not score at Purdue. Against a Buffalo defense that has yielded 352 yards and 37 points a game, 21 of the Orange’s 37 points came from blocked kicks and an interception that was returned for a touchdown. Of its 19 points against Cincinnati, two came from a safety and an interception in Bearcat territory led to a field goal. In all, 26 of the Orange’s 56 points have come from special teams and the defense.
Syracuse has had difficulty converting on third down (23%). That doesn’t bode well considering the ‘Hoos are yielding a staggering 18-percent conversion rate in three games.
Another area where the Orange will need to improve is its red-zone offense. In three games, it has scored just four times on eight trips inside the 20. Against a Virginia defense that has allowed just six scores all season, Syracuse must take advantage of every opportunity it can get.
The Orange had a season-best 192 yards on the ground against Cincinnati, paced by Reyes’ 117-yard performance. Since the start of the 2000 season, Syracuse is 17-4 when rushing for at least 200 yards. Conversely, the Orange has lost 16 straight games when rushing for less than 100 yards. Obviously the Wahoos will want to limit the Syracuse running attack.
The biggest problem Syracuse will face is defending the Cavalier pass rush. The safeties and middle triangle of Hoffman, Brooks and Parham will handle the running game. The outside linebackers and ends will look to pinch the pocket-passing Orange and Virginia will bring pressure from the corners and safeties as well. The ‘Hoos will look to confuse the young Syracuse quarterbacks with their complicated pass coverages and different blitzes.
Look for a big sack day.
Syracuse Defense vs. the Virginia Offense
Virginia has scored 40-plus points in all three games in 2004, the first time the Cavaliers have done that to open a season since 1913. Virginia is currently third in the country in scoring with an average of 50.3 points per game. Junior quarterback Marques Hagans is eighth in the nation and tops in the ACC in passing efficiency. The Cavaliers are ranked seventh in the nation in rushing offense and lead the country with 16 rushing touchdowns. Virginia is also seventh in average per carry (6.2). The Cavaliers have rushed for 911 yards in just three games this season.
The ‘Hoos will run the ball but also look for them to attack the middle and the inexperienced Syracuse corners early with backs and tight ends in the passing game. That should force the Orange to keep the safeties out of the box and help in pass coverage, thus opening up the middle for the running game.
When looking at the Syracuse defense, the most glaring statistic is the amount of rushing yardage it has yielded. The Orange has allowed 161 yards per game to open the season and 4.2 yards per carry. Virginia is averaging nearly 304 yards rushing per game. Wonder what Ron Prince is thinking? Pretty simple, another dose of power football is in order for a fourth consecutive Virginia opponent. It would be a minor victory for defensive coordinator Dunlap if his defense could hold the ‘Hoos under 200 yards rushing. It won’t happen.
Syracuse has also struggled defensively on third down, allowing a 40-percent conversion rate. The ‘Hoos have converted 45 percent of their third-down opportunities.
The Orange has had success in the red zone, holding opponents to only four scores in 11 attempts. Something will need to give this weekend as the Cavs have scored every time they have been in the red zone this season (except when the North Carolina game ended with Virginia at the 1-yard line).
Syracuse has yet to record a sack this season, so the visitors won’t be inclined to come after Marques Hagans – nor get to him if they try.
The Edge
Quarterback – Virginia
Running Backs – Virginia
Wide Receivers – Virginia
Tight Ends – Virginia
Defensive Line – Virginia
Linebackers – Virginia
Secondary – Even
Special Teams – Even
Stone-Cold Lock Prediction
Virginia has played three teams that fall near the bottom of the Sagarin rankings and the scores would indicate as much. While many may wish otherwise, Syracuse will not offer a significantly greater test. Purdue trounced the Orange and this weekend will likely be no different.
The Syracuse defense may not be as vulnerable as the UNC defenders, but it certainly has holes that the ‘Hoos can exploit. The biggest question is can the young Orange quarterbacks generate any offense against the Cavalier defense? The Orange has averaged 18 points offensively against two defenses that have given up 387 yards and over 30 points per game. We’re guessing they will find the going even tougher against Virginia.
Virginia – 45
Syracuse – 10
Last weeks pick:
Virginia – 51
Akron – 10
I guess I didn’t give the Virginia defense enough credit.
John’s take: I think Greg is right that Syracuse represents only a minor upgrade in quality of competition for the Cavaliers. Yes, the Orange is a more physical team than Virginia’s first three opponents. Its running game is better. Its offensive line is bigger. Its defense may be a little sturdier. But that doesn’t make Syracuse a good team.
On the contrary, this is a team that figures to struggle in the weakened Big East. Paul Pasqualoni, a fine coach, will bring a seriously flawed squad into Scott Stadium. His team has no passing game and no pass rush, judging by the first three games. Even with its solid tailback tandem, the Orange has been lousy offensively in all three games, relying on defensive takeaways and big special-teams plays to beat Buffalo and Cincinnati.
Syracuse provides a different test for UVa’s defense. Unlike Temple, North Carolina and Akron — all finesse offenses that made heavy use of spread formations — the Orange lines up and plays power football. Or at least tries to. That didn’t work against Purdue and it probably won’t work against the Wahoos. If anything, the Cavalier front seven must be relishing the thought of going up against a team that will come right at them. It’s their first chance to prove they can stop a decent running game. My guess is they’ll rise to the challenge.
Offensively, I don’t know if Virginia will be able to move the ball at will against the Syracuse defense, which has pretty good linebackers and safeties. It will be interesting to see what Pasqualoni and coordinator Steve Dunlap decide to do. Will they bring their safeties up and stack the box against Virginia’s running game? If so, that leaves their shaky corners in man coverage against Michael McGrew and Deyon Williams . Can the Cavaliers make them pay for that strategy? I’d like to find out the answer to that question before other defenses try to do the same thing.
Syracuse’s only chance is to force turnovers, block a kick and/or spring a long return — all things it has done well this season. Otherwise, Virginia’s physical superiority should carry the day. I don’t think it will be 51-0, the beating Purdue put on the Orange in the season opener. I assume Pasqualoni has fixed some of his team’s problems since then and Syracuse will play much better in its fourth game.
Still, it has the look of another mismatch to me.
John’s prediction: Virginia 38, Syracuse 6
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