Duke Preview: The Breakdown

Overview

Long considered a basketball school and the football doormat of the ACC, Duke has recently made improving the football program a priority by investing big dollars (by Duke standards) in new facilities and coaching pay. Still, that investment hasn’t resulted in immediate dividends.

Prior to last season, the Blue Devils lost 32 of 34 games over a three-year period and finished in the ACC cellar each season. After another bad start last year, they fired Carl Franks. Defensive coordinator Ted Roof, a former All-ACC linebacker at Georgia Tech, took over as interim coach with five games remaining. He guided the Blue Devils to two wins, including their first over Georgia Tech since 1994 and their first over North Carolina since 1989, so Duke officially named Roof as its 20th head coach at the end of the year.

Unfortunately for Roof, who inherited an experienced club last season with 20 returning starters, he has a youthful team in 2004. Because of inexperience and injuries, the Dookies are reeling again. They enter Saturday’s game at 1-5 overall and 0-3 in the ACC, while No. 14 Virginia (5-1, 2-1 ACC) is coming off an embarrassing loss to Florida State and is looking to get back on track.

Duke Offense vs. Virginia Defense

DUKE OFFENSE

LT 79 JIM MORAVCHIK (6-6, 305, Jr.)

LG 67 BOB BENION (6-3, 285, So.)

C 78 DAN MOONEY (6-4, 300, Sr.)

RG 66 TYLER KRIEG (6-4, 300, So.)

RT 65 CHRISTIAN MITCHELL (6-7, 325, Sr.)

TE 83 BEN PATRICK (6-4, 260, So.)

FB 89 ANDY ROLAND (6-4, 235, Jr.)

TB 33 CEDRIC DARGAN (6-0, 200, Jr.)

QB 7 MIKE SCHNEIDER (6-2, 215, So.)

WR 1 COREY THOMPSON (6-2, 180, Fr.)

WR 28 RONNIE ELLIOTT (5-10, 185, Jr.)

VIRGINIA DEFENSE

DE 96 BRENNAN SCHMIDT (6-3 269 JR.)

NT 60 ANDREW HOFFMAN (6-4 284 SR.)

DE 98 KWAKOU ROBINSON (6-4 327 JR.)

ILB 44 KAI PARHAM (6-3 247 SO.)

ILB 34 AHMAD BROOKS (6-4 249 SO.)

OLB 45 DENNIS HALEY (6-1 247 SR.)

OLB 56 DARRYL BLACKSTOCK (6-4 240 JR.)

S 36 JERMAINE HARDY (5-11 208 SR.)

S 5 MARQUIS WEEKS (5-10 214 SR.)

CB 3 MARCUS HAMILTON (6-0 187 SO.)

CB 23 TONY FRANKLIN (5-10 185 SO.)

THE STATS

Duke Offense (Conference rank in parentheses)

Total Offense – 244.7 (11)

Rushing Offense – 114.7 (10)

Passing Offense – 130.0 (11)

Scoring – 17.5 (11)

First Downs – 76 (11)

Third Down Conversions – 30.5% (8)

Sacks – 17 (10)

Time of Possession – 28:34 (9)

Turnovers – 13 Lost

Virginia Defense (Conference rank in parentheses

Total Defense – 285.5 (5)

Rushing Defense – 103.2 (2)

Passing Defense – 182.3 (6)

Scoring Defense – 15.7 (5)

First Downs – 89 (4)

Third Down Conversions – 26.6 (4)

Sacks – 14 (7)

Time of Possession – 28:25 (2)

Turnovers – 7 Gained

Now in his second season as Duke’s starting quarterback, sophomore Mike Schneider has shown improvement. As a rookie, he completed 46.6 percent of his passes and had a 6-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In 2004, Schneider has hit on 55.4 percent of his throws and has recorded more touchdown passes (3) than interceptions (2)

But the rest of the offense has regressed. The personnel losses were dramatic for the Blue Devils, especially on the offensive line and in the backfield, and it shows in 2004. Duke replaced four starters on the line and did so with players having little to no experience. In fact, four Cavalier linemen individually have more starting experience than four of the five Duke linemen combined.

The Devils have surpassed 100 rushing yards in just three games this season and have been held below 100 yards passing twice. The biggest question is, how are they averaging 17.5 points per game? Duke has produced only 15 red-zone opportunities all season. Outside of its game with the Citadel, Duke has scored just six offensive touchdowns in five games.

“You’re right, we do have to score more,” Roof said. “We have to execute and take care of the football and make some plays. We have to make some plays that we are in position to make to keep drives alive to get some big plays and loosen things up.”

Justin Boyle leads the Blue Devil running attack with 165 yards in 33 carries. Cedric Dargan returned last week after missing four games due to injury and rushed 20 times for just 31 yards against Georgia Tech. Overall the Devils are averaging 3.3 yards per carry.

Ronnie Elliott is Duke’s leading receiver with 43 yards on 13 catches. Deonto McCormick is a solid possession wideout, while Jomar Wright is a playmaker who is averaging 26.4 yards per reception. The Blue Devils will rotate four or five receivers.

The strength of the Duke offense lies in its tight end trio of Andy Roland, Ben Patrick and Calen Powell. The junior, sophomore and senior have recorded 58 receptions for 780 yards and six touchdowns over the last season and a half. While the backs are typically not a factor in the Duke passing game, Roland does serve in an H-Back/fullback role and is a receiving threat from that position.

Right tackle Christian Mitchell is the dean of the Duke offensive line with 32 starts, while the other four linemen have tallied 25. The line averages 6-5, 303 pounds.

Virginia will attempt to pressure the Duke quarterbacks, but for the most part I think the Cavs will run their base defense without a lot of razzle-dazzle. I wish it were more complicated than that so I could show off some keen, to-this-point unrevealed analysis, but this is not much more than one of the league’s better defenses against one of its worst offenses.

Duke Defense vs. UVa Offense

DUKE DEFENSE

DE 41 JUSTIN KITCHEN (6-4, 235, Jr.)

DT 91 ORRIN THOMPSON (6-6, 315, Sr.)

DT 51 CASEY CAMERO (6-5, 265, So.)

DE 52 ELI NICHOLS (6-4, 250, So.)

LB 30 BRENDAN DEWAN (6-1, 205, Jr.)

LB 13 GIUSEPPE AGUANNO (6-1, 240, Sr.)

LB 43 ALEX WILLIAMS (5-11, 210, So.)

S 23 BRIAN GREENE (6-1, 190, Jr.)

S 17 ALEX GREEN (6-2, 195, Sr.)

CB 3 KENNETH STANFORD (5-9, 180, Sr.)

CB 11 JOHN TALLEY (5-11, 180, So.)

VIRGINIA OFFENSE

LT 66 D’BRICKASHAW FERGUSON (6-5 295 JR.)

LG 62 BRIAN BARTHELMES (6-6 288 JR.)

C 75 ZAC YARBROUGH (6-4 276 SR.)

RG 61 ELTON BROWN (6-6 338 SR.)

RT 69 BRAD BUTLER (6-8 296 JR.)

TE 89 HEATH MILLER (6-5 255 JR.)

QB 18 MARQUES HAGANS (5-10 211 JR.)

FB 32 BRANDON ISAIAH (6-0 228 SR.)

TB 33 WALI LUNDY (5-10 214 JR.)

WR 80 MICHAEL MCGREW (6-2 201 SR.)

WR 81 DEYON WILLIAMS (6-3 188 SO.)

THE STATS

Duke Defense (Conference rank in parentheses)

Total Defense – 425.0 (10)

Rushing Defense – 210.8 (10)

Passing Defense – 214.2 (10)

Scoring Defense – 29.8 (10)

First Downs – 126 (9)

Third Down Conversions – 44.0% (9)

Sacks – 7 (10)

Time of Possession – 31:26 (9)

Turnovers – 16 Gained

Virginia Offense (Conference rank in parentheses)

Total Offense – 457.8 (1)

Rushing Offense – 232.5 (1)

Passing Offense – 225.3 (1)

Scoring – 35.8 (1)

First Downs – 136 (2)

Third Down Conversions – 51.2% (2)

Sacks – 7 (1)

Time of Possession – 31.35 (2)

Turnovers – 3 Lost

The Duke defensive line is tall and lean, averaging 6-5 in height but weighing in at only 266. The front four is the least experienced unit on the defense with essentially three new starters. Junior defensive end Justin Kitchen is the team leader in tackles for loss and sacks with 5.5 and three, respectively. Kitchen is tied with defensive tackle Casey Camero in quarterback pressures with four.

Duke will rotate five linebackers but typically maintain its starting front four and secondary. The linebacking corps returned five lettermen, including Giuseppe Aguanno and Brendan Dewan, who have recorded 44 career starts. Aguanno leads the Devil defense with 45 tackles, while junior linebacker Malcolm Ruff is second with 36, followed by senior safety Alex Green with 33.

The four members of the Duke secondary have combined for 92 starts, but it is the least-experienced member of the group who is getting the most attention. Sophomore cornerback John Talley has four of Duke’s league-leading 10 interceptions and has returned two of those for touchdowns.

The Devils are susceptible to the big play, having given up 25 plays of 20 yards or more, an average of four per game. Roof’s defense has struggled against the run all season, allowing three 250-yard rushing games. Four Duke opponents have posted over 400 yards of total offense.

Duke is 10th in the conference in scoring, rushing, passing and total defense.

What has kept the Blue Devils in games has been their ability to force turnovers. Duke leads the ACC in takeaways with 16 – six fumble recoveries and 10 interceptions. In 11 games under the direction of Roof, the Devils are plus-seven in turnover margin with 19 turnovers versus 26 takeaways.

The Virginia game plan against Duke should be simple. Execute the offense with a heavy emphasis on the running game and take several shots downfield to take advantage of Duke’s propensity to give up the big play.

Duke Special Teams

In addition to the turnovers forced by the defense, special teams have also played a part in keeping the Blue Devils close.

Trey McDonald is averaging 40.1 yards per punt, and Duke is in the upper half of the league in kickoff returns (22.6) and punt returns (10.2). In one of the matchups to watch, the Devils lead the league in kickoff coverage (allowing 17.2 yards per return), while the ‘Hoos are second in the league in kickoff returns (29.5-yard average).

Matt Brooks has nailed 12 of 13 PATs and is 5 of 9 on field-goal attempts.

Stone-Cold Lock Prediction

Apparently the folks at the Sabre have misplaced my prediction from last week, so we will be unable to review my efficiency. But suffice to say I think I’ll nail this one.

I wish there was some revealing piece of analysis I could offer for this game, but Virginia would be prudent simply to run its base offense and defense and let its superior players take control.

The bottom line here is simple. Virginia has too much talent, too much experience and too much depth. The Cavs will get back to their power running game and will wear down the Devils with a good dose of Wali Lundy left, Michael Johnson right and Alvin Pearman up the middle.

The ‘Hoos will not abandon the passing game and will work to keep the rhythm and timing of the offense in sync heading into the off week prior to Maryland. This is a good time for the return of Fontel Mines and there is hope that No. 84 will be on the field.

Defensively, Virginia will attack because that is how you play against an inexperienced quarterback and offensive line. I look for Virginia to get back to playing better run defense against the league’s second-worst rushing offense.

“[Virginia has] good coaches and good players,” Roof said. “We have to play better and we have to coach better. It’s a combination of a bunch of things. As for as how we match up, that’s why you play the game to go find out how you match up. Play it on paper or in the newspaper, there wouldn’t be any reason to do it. But we are playing on the field for a reason and we will find out where we are.”

There’s really not a great deal of analysis to offer. This is a classic David and Goliath matchup. Frankly, if Virginia does what it does best – run the football and attack on defense – the only suspense here will be the final score.

Virginia 41, Duke 13

John’s take: Let’s face it. It’s hard to get excited about this game. Everyone’s enthusiasm was dampened by the Florida State loss. Duke is lousy. The atmosphere at Wallace Wade Stadium isn’t exactly electric. The game’s not on TV, so no one’s watching. And, to be honest, it’s the lull before the November storm on Virginia’s schedule.

Let’s just hope the ‘Hoos don’t feel the same way. The real challenge for the Cavaliers this weekend is more mental than physical. Physically, they are far superior to Duke. They can probably win without a particularly inspired effort. All they really need to do is avoid turnovers (something the Devils have been good at creating) and dominate the line of scrimmage. If they do that, a workmanlike performance should be good enough to produce an easy victory.

Still, it would be nice to see the Cavs play with passion and intensity. That may be asking a lot, given the opponent, the venue and the likelihood of a Florida State hangover. It would be natural for such a discouraging loss to carry over into the next week. But it’s up to Coach Groh and each of the players to put that aside and focus on the task at hand. They have said all the right things this week, but the fact is, during Groh’s tenure as head coach, Virginia often has followed up one loss with another. Even the past two years, when they have gone 17-10, the ‘Hoos have had four two-game losing streaks. So resilience hasn’t been their strong suit.

I’m not suggesting that Virginia is vulnerable to an upset Saturday. I’d put that in the slim-to-none category. But don’t be surprised if the Cavs don’t seem particularly fired up and excited about this game. If they’re a little flat, that’s understandable. They’ll probably still win by something like 31-14. If they play impassioned football, it could be more like 55-3. My guess is somewhere in between.

John’s prediction: Virginia 38, Duke 10

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