Overview
Virginia enters Saturday’s game ranked 10th in the AP poll and 11th in the ESPN/USA Today poll. Miami is currently 18th in the AP and 17th in ESPN/USA Today.
After a 6-0 start, the Hurricanes have lost back-to-back games to unranked North Carolina and Clemson. Against UNC, Miami couldn’t make a defensive stop. Against Clemson, the Cane offense moved the ball with ease in the first half but was forced to punt on all eight second-half possessions. The Hurricanes have not lost three consecutive games since 1997, when they finished 5-6, their last losing season.
Miami is against the wall. Its shot at a national title is gone and a loss to Virginia means its ACC title hopes also vanish.
“This place demands perfection,” said Miami quarterback Brock Berlin. “People from the outside have set a bar for us, but we have set an even higher bar. When we lose, we take it pretty bad.”
The question is, how badly have the Canes taken losing and how will it affect their play?
Miami Offense vs. Virginia Defense
THE MATCHUPS
MIAMI OFFENSE
LT 64 Rashad Butler (6-5 286, Jr.)
LG 61 Tony Tella (6-5 298, Jr.)
C 70 Joel Rodriguez (6-3 292, Sr.)
RG 71 Derrick Morse (6-5 325, R-Fr.)
RT 77 Chris Myers (6-5 300, Sr.)
TE 84 Kevin Everett (6-6 251, Sr.)
FB 41 Talib Humphrey (6-2 250, Sr.)
TB 3 Frank Gore (5-10 220, Jr.)
QB 7 Brock Berlin (6-1 215, Sr.)
SE 1 Roscoe Parrish (5-9 172, Jr.)
FL 8 Darnell Jenkins (5-10 183, So.)
VIRGINIA DEFENSE
DE 96 Brennan Schmidt (6-3 269, Jr.)
NT 60 Andrew Hoffman (6-4 284, Sr.)
DE 98 Kwakou Robinson (6-4 327, Jr.)
ILB 44 Kai Parham (6-3 247, So.)
ILB 34 Ahmad Brooks (6-4 249, So.)
OLB 45 Dennis Haley (6-1 247, Sr.)
OLB 56 Darryl Blackstock (6-4 240, Jr.)
S 36 Jermaine Hardy (5-11 208, Sr.)
S 5 Marquis Weeks (5-10 214, Sr.)
CB 3 Marcus Hamilton (6-0 187, So.)
CB 23 Tony Franklin (5-10 185, So.)
MIAMI OFFENSIVE STATS
Total Offense – 369.8 (7) / UVA Total Defense – 282.2 (4)
Rushing Offense – 132.1 (8) / UVA Rushing Defense – 94.9 (2)
Passing Offense – 237.6 (1) / UVA Passing defense – 187.4 (4)
Scoring – 32.5 (2) / UVA Scoring Defense 13.8 (2)
First Downs – 148 (9) / UVA First Down Defense – 117 (1)
Third Down Conversions – 33.6% (7) / UVA Conversion Defense – 28.6 (3)
Sacks Against – 18 (5) / UVA Sacks For – 24 (6)
Time of Possession – 31:12 (3) / UVA Defense Time Without Possession – 27:59 (1)
Turnovers Lost – 9 / UVA Turnovers Gained – 11
Miami is first and foremost a passing team, so its offense will test the Virginia coverage. The Hurricanes lead the ACC with 237.6 passing yards per game and they attack with tight ends, backs and wide receivers.
Since the start of October, Brock Berlin has produced the best five-game stretch of his career. He has thrown for 13 touchdowns and 1,356 yards (271.2 ypg) while tossing only two interceptions. His pass efficiency numbers for those games calculate to a 145.72 rating.
But Berlin is streaky and is known as a rhythmic quarterback. Virginia must disrupt his timing and can do so with carefully placed blitzes, coverage schemes and physicality. Generally, teams that have had success against the Canes have not only tried to attack Berlin but have made a point of hitting him whenever possible (and legal).
Berlin’s receivers are solid but are not the quality of past Miami receiving corps. Roscoe Parrish leads the Canes in receptions (27) and yards (424) with an impressive 15.7 yards per catch. All six of his touchdown receptions have come in Miami’s last four games.
The Hurricane passing attack is diverse. Seven players have double-digit receptions and five have produced over 240 receiving yards. Wideouts Darnell Jenkins, Sinorice Moss, Aikieem Jolla and Lance Leggett have combined for 58 receptions for 776 yards and seven scores.
Last Saturday against Maryland, the ‘Hoos appeared to fix some of their zone coverage issues that created big plays for Florida State, Duke and Clemson. Whether that continues this week should be a big factor in the outcome.
Like Virginia, Miami has been a hotbed for tight-end talent and 2004 is no exception. Tight ends Kevin Everett and Greg Olsen (Christian’s brother) have a combined 32 catches for 511 yards. Everett is Miami’s second-leading receiver (17 catches, 247 yards). Olsen did not play last week against Clemson but is expected to be on the field Saturday.
If the Cavaliers can disrupt Miami’s passing game, they will force the Hurricanes to rely on an inconsistent running game. Miami has clearly missed injured All-American candidate left tackle Eric Winston. With Winston, Miami averaged 151.2 yards rushing and scored seven rushing touchdowns. Junior Rashad Butler has taken over for Winston in the last four games and the running game has experienced a dramatic dropoff. Since Winston’s knee injury, the Canes have averaged 113 rushing yards and scored five TDs on the ground.
With 34 starts, senior guard Chris Myers is the dean of the Hurricane line. The rest of the offensive linemen have combined for 33 starts. That inexperience has played a role in the struggling running game. The Hurricanes have produced just 3.3 yards per carry the past two games, leaving it to Berlin to assume the offensive load.
In the offensive backfield, starter Frank Gore and backup Tyrone Moss have combined for 199 carries and 910 yards this season.
Miami Defense vs. Virginia Offense
THE MATCHUPS
VIRGINIA OFFENSE
LT 66 D’Brickashaw Ferguson (6-5 295 JR.)
LG 62 Brian Barthelmes (6-6 288 JR.)
C 75 Zac Yarbrough (6-4 276 SR.)
RG 61 Elton Brown (6-6 338 SR.)
RT 69 Brad Butler (6-8 296 JR.)
TE 89 Heath Miller (6-5 255 JR.)
FB 32 Tom Santi (6-5 225 FR.)
TB 21 Alvin Pearman (5-9 204 SR.)
QB 18 Marques Hagans (5-10 211 JR.)
WR 80 Michael McGrew (6-2 201 SR.)
WR 81 Deyon Williams (6-3 188 SO.)
MIAMI DEFENSE
LE 98 Bryan pata (6-4 267, So.)
LT 92 Orien Harris (6-4 301, Jr.)
RT 99 Kareem Brown (6-5 301, Jr.)
RE 90 Thomas Carroll (6-5 230, Jr.)
SLB 50 Roger McIntosh (6-3 237, Jr.)
MLB 44 Leon Williams (6-4 237, Jr.)
WLB 52 Tavares Gooden (6-1 220, So.)
FS 19 Brandon Meriweather (6-1 184, So.)
SS 5 Greg Threat (6-2 193, Jr.)
LCB 22 Kelly Jennings (6-0 177, Jr.)
RCB 6 Antrel Rolle (6-1 202, Sr.)
VIRGINIA OFFENSIVE STATS
Total Offense – 458.4 (1) / UM Total Defense – 340.8 (7)
Rushing Offense – 254.8 (1) / UM Rushing Defense – 148.6 (7)
Passing Offense – 203.6 (5) / UM Passing defense – 192.1 (6)
Scoring – 33.5 (1) / UM Scoring Defense 18.8 (5)
First Downs – 191 (1) / UM First Down Defense – 145 (6)
Third Down Conversions – 50.5 % (1) / UM Conversion Defense – 30.5 (6)
Sacks Against – 10 (1) / UM Sacks For – 24 (6)
Time of Possession – 32:01 / UM Defense Time Without Possession – 28:48 (3)
Turnovers Lost – 11 / UM Turnovers Gained – 20
While the offense has struggled at times, what really has Miami fans and coaches perplexed is the play of their defense. In their first four games, the Hurricanes allowed just 216 yards and 6.5 points per game. Over the last four, the Canes have given up 466 yards and 31 points per game.
The Hurricanes will try to get penetration with their defensive tackles, use their ends to contain Virginia’s tight ends in the two-tight set and hope to free up a safety or linebacker to make plays. Miami obviously expects the ‘Hoos to run to the right side, having moved its best run-stopping end, Bryan Pata, from right end to left end. Thomas Carroll moved to the right side.
Defensive tackle Orien Harris has a team-leading eight tackles for loss and is tied for second in sacks. Alongside Harris on the interior, Kareem Brown is expected to make only his third career start and second of the season.
The Miami linebackers are fast and athletic, but they are young. Junior Roger McIntosh is a two-year starter and Miami’s second-leading tackler. Sophomore Tavares Gooden has started all eight games for the Canes this season and is Miami’s third-leading tackler. Leon Williams will get his fourth career start at middle linebacker.
The front seven will be expected to slow the Virginia running game, something they have not done well the last three weeks. Miami opponents have averaged 191 rushing yards in those games, and what’s amazing is that those opponents are ranked sixth, seventh and 11th in the ACC in rushing. Virginia averages 255 yards on the ground and leads the league.
Will the ‘Hoos run into an intense and angry Miami defense? Coker knows the Cavalier running game is formidable.
“We have to pursue the ball well, be thick against the running game and make tackles,” Coker said. “They’re very physical running backs, a big, physical offensive line with one of the best offensive linemen in the country [Elton Brown].”
The most experienced group on the Miami defense is the secondary. Cornerbacks Kelly Jennings and Antrel Rolle have combined for 56 starts. Safeties Greg Threat and Brandon Meriweather have recorded 19 starts. Threat leads the team in tackles (85) and interceptions (3
The play of Rolle has been so outstanding that his name is being brought up in Heisman Trophy discussions across the country. The senior cornerback has been the most disruptive force on the Miami defense. He is a finalist for the Jim Thorpe Award, given annually to college football’s best defensive back, and the Chuck Bednarik Award for the nation’s top defensive player.
Problem is, he may not play Saturday. Rolle has missed practice this week because of an injured right big toe. Coker described the injury as “turf-toe-type,” and said he was hopeful Rolle would be ready for Saturday’s game.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Over the last two seasons, the Cavaliers have had one of the top punt and kickoff coverage units in the conference. This season those units have been up and down. Against the Canes, any special teams breakdowns could be deadly.
Miami return specialist Devin Hester has returned three punts and a kickoff for touchdowns this season and is clearly a problem for any opponent. Hester averages 22.8 yards on punt returns and 28.8 on kickoffs. Most teams have stopped kicking the ball his way.
Kicker Jon Peattie was one of the ACC’s best last year, though he has been inconsistent as a sophomore. While he has made all 30 extra points, he is just 10 for 18 on field goals.
Brian Monroe is averaging 41.4 yards per punt and has pinned opponents inside their 20-yard line on 16 of his 45 punts (36 percent). Opponents have returned only 19 of his punts for 104 yards. The longest return against the Miami punt cover team was nine yards until Clemson’s Justin Miller had a 39-yarder last week.
THE EDGE
Quarterbacks – Even
Running Backs – Virginia
Offensive Line – Virginia
Wide Receivers – Miami
Tight Ends – Virginia
Defensive Line – Miami
Linebackers – Virginia
Secondary – Miami
Special Teams – Miami
Coaching – Even
STONE-COLD LOCK PREDICTION
Though Miami has struggled, it is still one of the best teams of the decade. The Hurricanes still have solid talent, great team speed and an excellent coaching staff.
But the Canes have to come to the Commonwealth. Historically, Miami hasn’t played very well in Virginia in November. Since 1997, Miami is 1-3 in the Commonwealth (all of the games played in Blacksburg after Nov. 1st). Game time temperatures are expected to be in the low 50s and should drop into the mid 30s by game’s end.
Virginia needs to continue to dominate the line of scrimmage and be physical with Miami on both sides of the ball. But the ‘Hoos will need a stellar performance from Marques Hagans and the passing game to win.
The Cane confidence is fragile, so Virginia must prevent them from getting an early score and renewed confidence.
Look for the Cavaliers to try and pressure Berlin and expect Miami to do the same with Hagans. If Virginia can pressure and hit Berlin, he has proven to be mistake-prone. Look for some new wrinkles in the blitz packages and expect also to see more of “new” defensive end Andrew Hoffman.
My prediction: Virginia will post over 200 yards passing and rushing. The defense will keep Berlin in check. The ‘Hoos will have a solid specials team outing and will win the turnover battle.
“The only team that can beat the University of Miami,” said Hurricane defensive end Thomas Carroll, “is the University of Miami.”
He and I will agree to disagree.
Virginia 34, Miami 24
John’s take: Four weeks ago, Virginia fans seemed to be approaching the Florida State game with unbridled enthusiasm. This week that attitude is more one of cautious optimism. Which makes sense. The Cavaliers fell into that trap once, and the circumstances surrounding this game are eerily similar.
For one thing, Miami and Florida State have a lot in common. Both are proud programs that simply haven’t played up to their standards this season. The Seminoles seemed vulnerable right before they played Virginia. The Hurricanes have dropped two straight games against teams UVa crushed, including a loss to Clemson at home last week. This is a game Virginia could win, should win. But that’s what a lot of people were saying last month, too.
Like FSU, Miami is a team with tremendous speed. That’s the biggest on-field challenge that the Cavs will face. The other challenge involves Miami’s manhood, so to speak. The Canes probably can’t believe the way their season has started to unravel. They’re probably miffed at being underdogs this week. Will they be frustrated and roll over if things don’t go well? Or will they come out with anger and passion and intensity, as the Seminoles did four weeks ago?
It’s hard to predict Miami’s psyche, but Virginia needs to do a better job of maintaining its own mental edge this week. The Cavs seemed overwhelmed in Tallahassee and did not handle adversity well. They have to play with more confidence and realize that, just maybe, they are a better team than Miami. This year, anyway, that seems to be the case. Even when the Hurricanes were winning, they didn’t look impressive. They easily could have lost to FSU and Louisville, for instance. Plus, at this point, they are banged up. Their best offensive lineman (Eric Winston) is out with a knee injury, their best defender (Antrel Rolle) is gimpy (turf toe) and their best back (Frank Gore) is hobbled. They have plenty of other injured players, which has drastically cut into their depth.
Virginia has a few injury problems of its own, which may have played a role in the team’s consecutive subpar performances against FSU and Duke. But last week’s game against Maryland got the Cavs back on the right track. It also may have been a blueprint for how to beat Miami: Be physical, play smashmouth football, don’t get beat deep and stay solid in special teams.
Playing at home also should make a huge difference for the Wahoos, who have won 16 of their past 17 at Scott Stadium. For years now, Virginia has been a much better team at home than on the road. (Not a good trend considering the last two games are in Atlanta and Blacksburg, but a positive sign for this weekend.) Also consider that the Hurricanes have typically struggled in cold-weather environments, and it’s supposed to be nippy tomorrow in Charlottesville. With the likelihood of a record crowd lending its support, I think the Cavs won’t have the same problems they experienced against FSU. Rather, the Hurricanes are the ones who will be falling into the trap.
John’s prediction: Virginia 27, Miami 21
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