The ‘Hoos are apparently still paying their penance to the league for forcing the ACC’s hand with respect to Virginia Tech during the ACC expansion soap opera. After a light September, the conference schedule gods ratchet things up in a big way for Groh and the gang with road games at Maryland, BC and UNC, plus a stiff home test against FSU. The good news, if you can call it that, is that October’s slate is easier than November’s.
Maryland
October 1
At Byrd Stadium, College Park, MD
The Basics
2004 Record: 5-6
Bowl Game: None
Returning Starters – Offense (7)
Returning Starters – Defense (5)
Returning Starters – Special Teams (1)
What’s to like? The Terps are very athletic. They have good size and speed at all the skill positions. Defensively, in a conference loaded with linebackers, Maryland’s linebacking corps is ranked among the top five in the ACC by virtually every preseason publication. Finally, the coaching staff still remains among the elite in the nation with Ralph Friedgen, offensive coordinator Charlie Taaffe and defensive guru Gary Blackney.
What’s not to like? The situation at quarterback. Terp QBs had an up-and-down 2004, delivering just eight touchdown passes and tossing 16 interceptions. Sam Hollenbach, who was the fourth-string QB last year but was impressive in one start against Wake Forest (22-36, 229 yards, 61%), will get the nod. The health of the offensive line (and the running game in general) has to be a concern. Last year the Terps had an un-Friedgen-like six consecutive games where they didn’t post over 83 yards rushing. They also yielded 30 sacks. Maryland has been plagued with injuries on the line and if Friedgen can’t find some suitable backups, it could be another long season. This is also a very young team with three new starters in the secondary.
Stellar Stat: Friedgen’s 36 wins in his first four years at Maryland ranks first in the ACC and tied for 10th in NCAA Division I-A history for fourth-year coaches.
Dubious Distinction: After averaging 34.4, 32.2 and 31.2 points per game over the previous three seasons, the Terrapins managed just 17.7 points per game in 2004, finishing just ahead of the Blue Devils (16.6) in the ACC. So much for Friedgen’s offensive genius status.
Rumor Mill: Sources close to the Maryland program tell me that while Friedgen has settled on Hollenbach as the starter, the coach is not at all happy with his depth at quarterback. Fridge probably won’t ask much from his QB and will try to win with special teams, defense and the running game. One other interesting note: 6-3, 253-pound tight end Vernon Davis will be returning kickoffs.
Play-by-play take: “There are 69 players with three or more years of eligibility still remaining and 45 of those 69 are either first- or second-year freshmen,” says the legendary voice of the Terrapins, Johnny Holliday. “But I would be very surprised if this team goes 5-6 like last year’s team did. Last year I think was just one of those blips on the radar screen. When you look at the first three years that Friedgen had, you go to the Orange Bowl, then you go to the Peach Bowl and the Gator Bowl. You rack up all those yards and you have just an absolutely phenomenal offense. Then for some reason, you have last season. It just shows how strong and how important a quarterback is and how important an offensive line is.”
Fearless Prediction: Since 1998, Virginia Tech is 9-0 on Thursday nights. That streak will end on Thursday, Oct. 22, in College Park.
Make or break game: Virginia Tech – This one has the makings of a college football classic or another Hokie thumping. If Tech gets on an early roll, Maryland could be reeling for a second consecutive year. If the Terps keep it close, it could be upset city. Unless the offense completely falls apart (which looks more and more likely), the Terps could go 4-2 early but have a difficult end-of-year package with road games at FSU, N.C. State and UNC, and a good Boston College team at home. They’ll struggle to win one of those four. But a win against Tech and Maryland will be loaded with confidence and could finish with a flourish in those final four games.
Early take against the ‘Hoos: The home team has won the last five in this series and depending on how the early season shakes out, the ‘Hoos could be an underdog when they head to College Park. This will likely be Virginia’s first real test of the season and may be the game where Groh pulls out some new wrinkles. This game may well introduce fans to the Virginia offense of the future. One interesting statistic: Since 1980, the Terps are 1-7 against teams that shut them out the previous season.
Boston College
October 8
At Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, MA
The Basics
2004 Record: 9-3
Bowl Game: 37-24 victory over North Carolina in the Continental Bowl
Returning Starters – Offense (7)
Returning Starters – Defense (7)
Returning Starters – Special Teams (2)
What’s to like? Defensive end Mathias Kiwanuka was the Big East defensive player of the year in 2004. With 28 career sacks, he may be the premier defender in the ACC. The offense should be productive with quarterback Quinton Porter, reliable receivers, a good trio in the backfield and an offensive line that has five returning starters, including a possible first-round pick in center Patrick Ross. Will Blackmon is a dynamic kickoff and punt return man who can score at any time.
What’s not to like? The kicking game needs to improve but the biggest issues for the Eagles are on defense. Boston College was relying on Justin Bell on the defensive front and he is gone. The secondary is not only inexperienced but is banged up.
Stellar Stat: The Eagles are the only Division 1-A team with five consecutive bowl victories.
Dubious Distinction: The Eagles are 2-5 against the four ACC opponents they have played the last three seasons (Wake Forest 0-2, Miami 0-2, UNC 1-0, Virginia Tech 1-1).
Rumor Mill: Word out of Chestnut Hill is that Porter has looked better than ever, especially mobility-wise, after redshirting last season. He’s moving well in and out of the pocket and has displayed a dramatic increase in speed. Virginia recruit-niks will remember linebacker Brain Toal. Look for the Big East rookie of the year to not only be an outstanding run stopper but also to tote the pigskin for the Eagles on third-and-short and in the red zone.
Play-by-play take: “I think they can win the conference,” says the voice of the Eagles, Jon Meterparel. “I think it’s a great year for that, especially division-wise. Knocking off Florida State is very viable. The schedule is favorable, especially getting Florida State at home in September. The running backs are solid and BC has good depth everywhere. The question is injuries and that’s been a slight problem in the preseason. They lost Justin Bell and a backup at tight end so they’re going to be young there and the secondary is banged up. That’s always the key for everybody, but for BC I think the secondary and d-line are the two key concerns for the team. Being in the ACC is huge and the schedule is terrific.”
Fearless Prediction: Boston College will upset either Virginia Tech or Florida State, and the Eagles will be upset by Wake, North Carolina or BYU.
Make or break game: Florida State – Not only could this early-season game determine the winner of the Atlantic Division, it’s a statement game for the Eagles in their first season in the ACC. Boston has always been a pro town with BC an afterthought. If they can find a way to upset the ‘Noles, Meterparel says “that will be a kind of appointment game.”
Early take against the ‘Hoos: The rub against the Cavaliers over the last three seasons is their inability to win big games on the road. The ‘Hoos are 7-10 away from home over the past three seasons with the wins coming at Duke (twice), Wake, Western Michigan, UNC and Temple. The only notable win came a season ago against a 7-5 Georgia Tech team. The Cavs will have a chance very early in the 2005 campaign to prove they can win on the road with games against Syracuse, Maryland and BC. The games against the Orange and Terps are winnable but a victory over a potential top-20 team like Boston College could be the catalyst for a special season.
Florida State
October 15
At Scott Stadium
The Basics
2004 Record: 9-3
Bowl Game: 30-18 victory over West Virginia in the Gator Bowl
Returning Starters – Offense (4)
Returning Starters – Defense (5)
Returning Starters – Special Teams (2)
What’s to like? Florida State’s tailback tandem of Leon Washington (951 yards) and Lorenzo Booker (887) combined to rush for 1,838 yards and 11 touchdowns last season – the top tandem total in the ACC. They’re back but will run behind an inexperienced offensive line. The Seminoles have three senior tight ends and they have arguably the top linebacking corps in the conference if not the nation.
What’s not to like? I can’t remember an August when so many Seminole starting positions were unsettled. The offensive line is young with a combined 29 career starts. A freshman (Drew Weatherford or Xavier Lee) will start at quarterback and, according to coach Bobby Bowden, “It may come down to flipping a coin as to who starts the season.” The Seminoles are also inexperienced at the interior of the defensive line and in the secondary where preseason All-American Antonio Cromartie was lost to a knee injury during an informal workout. The other eight cornerbacks on the Seminole roster have a combined six career tackles and one pass breakup. That’s a scary prospect when you open the season against Miami.
Stellar Stat: Last season the offense struggled, but the Seminoles were 7th in the nation in total defense, 4th in scoring defense and 3rd in rushing defense.
Dubious Distinction: The Seminoles are in the midst of a six-game losing streak to Miami. Four of the last five losses have been by an average of just 4.5 points. When asked about the streak at FSU’s media day, linebacker A.J. Nicholson told Warchant.com, “It’s in the back of our minds because everybody’s reminding us. We know that.”
Rumor Mill: Rumors are that there are problems in the FSU kicking game that have Bowden pacing the floors at night saying, “Dangummit.” The event that led to the lyme disease diagnosis that sidelined Florida State quarterback Wyatt Sexton for the season? He reportedly jumped on the trunk of a parked car, did pushups in the street with his shirt off and proclaimed himself to be “God.”
Interesting factoids: Florida State is 52-1 at Doak Campbell Stadium against ACC opponents since 1992. In the last five games the Seminole defense has held the Cavaliers to 144 TOTAL rushing yards (28.8 yards per game). Finally, in 2004 the Seminoles averaged less than 30 points per game for the first time in six years.
Fearless Prediction: For the fourth time in five years, Florida State will not pass the 10-win mark. The last time that happened in Tallahassee was from 1981-1986 when the ‘Noles went six seasons without winning 10-plus games.
Make or break game: Miami – This game set the tone for the Seminoles in 2004 and it will again in 2005. Given the personnel losses at Florida State, a defeat could send them into a nosedive. The good news for the Seminoles is that even with a Miami loss, they could still win the Atlantic and play for the ACC title in Jacksonville.
Early take against the ‘Hoos: A statement game for Virginia, this time at home. The ‘Hoos have to prove that 1) they can run the ball against the ‘Noles (see Interesting factoids), and 2) they can defeat a team that they are challenging for league supremacy. Virginia could enter this game undefeated, just as it did last season. A win means Virginia may reach the season-ending matchups with Virginia Tech and Miami at 9-0. A loss could start a downward spiral of more unmet expectations.
North Carolina
October 22
At Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, N.C.
The Basics
2004 Record: 6-6
Bowl Game: 37-24 loss to Boston College in the Continental Tire Bowl
Returning Starters – Offense (5)
Returning Starters – Defense (9)
Returning Starters – Special Teams (2)
What’s to like? North Carolina’s offensive line has become one of the top units in the league under the tutelage of coach Hal Hunter, and that unit will be the strength of this team again in 2005. There is also a lot of talent and diversity at wide receiver with burners Mike Mason and Jesse Holley and the consistent Jarwarski Pollock. The kicking game also appears to be solid with the dependable Connor Barth and the strong-legged punter David Woolridge.
What’s not to like? Much of the potent Tar Heels offense returns in 2005, but the biggest absences will be that of quarterback Darian Durant and stud center Jason Brown. The Heels return nine starters on defense but it’s questionable whether that is a good thing. UNC finished 10th or 11th in the ACC in every defensive category last season and gave up almost 32 points per game. Maybe the biggest issue for the Heels is a schedule that has been ranked by cbssportsline.com and Phil Steele as the most difficult in the nation.
Stellar Stats: The Tar Heels finished among the top five in virtually every offensive category in the conference last season. The Heels were 5th in first downs, 4th in scoring and rushing offense, 3rd in third-down conversion efficiency and 2nd in passing offense, sacks allowed and total offense.
Dubious Distinctions: John Bunting came to North Carolina as a defensive guru. Apparently he forgot some things along the way as the Heels have allowed 31.8, 38.3 and 35.1 points per game over the last three seasons. That’s the worst stretch since the 1993 and 1994 seasons when the Heels allowed 33.1 and 31.1 points per game, respectively.
Rumor Mill: Most of the prognosticators believe this will be a long season for the Tar Heels, but don’t tell that to Bunting. He reportedly stated that a losing season will be a step backwards. I hope he knows how to “moonwalk”. The Heels have lost junior defensive end Xavier Rainey for the season as well as backup quarterback Roger Heinz. Rainey suffered a broken lower fibula earlier this year during spring camp and has been unable to recover. Heinz will have surgery to repair two herniated discs and is likely out for the year. Carolina has yet to settle on a strong safety as Mahlon Carey, Martel Thatch and former Cavalier recruiting target Trimane Goddard battle for the top spot on the depth chart.
Interesting factoids: After struggling in 2002 with just 102.5 yards rushing per game, Carolina improved to 150.4 in 2003 and 176.2 last season. In last year’s game against Virginia, the Tar Heels gave up 549 yards of total offense, the most since the rivalry began in 1892. Since 1997, Carolina is 9-5 in games played in November. In 12 games last season the Heels allowed 225 or more yards rushing nine times. They were 3-6 in those outings.
Fearless Prediction: Last season the Tar Heels were predicted to finish 10th in the ACC. They finished fifth (5-3) and went to a bowl game. That prediction will come true a year late as the Heels will be fortunate to finish 11th overall.
Make or break game: Duke – It may be the only game the Tar Heels win.
Early take against the ‘Hoos: In 2000, the Cavaliers won in Chapel Hill for the first time in almost a decade and have won two of three there since. There is no reason to expect Virginia can’t make it three out of four. A lot depends on what happens the previous week against FSU. If the Cavaliers struggle against the ‘Noles, the carryover could affect the outcome in Kenan. If the ‘Hoos pull off the upset, the level of confidence will be just too much for the undermanned Tar Heels to handle. Even if Virginia does lose to the Seminoles, it’s doubtful that the UNC defense will be able to stop the Virginia running game. FYI, since 1993 Virginia is 11-1 in the games following the FSU contest. The lone loss came in 2000 (24-0) to N.C. State.
(For the most comprehensive coverage of Cavalier football, including the best in-depth analysis and informed opinions, please consider signing up for Sabre Edge.)
