After a less-than-impressive win over woeful Western Michigan in their opener, the Cavaliers have had two weeks to prepare for a slightly tougher test Saturday. They will face Syracuse, a team with a decent defense, a one-dimensional offense and a frequently noisy home crowd at the Carrier Dome. How Virginia will fare depends largely on how much it has improved in practice since Sept. 3.
For notes, stats, articles, depth charts, a roster card, a weather report and more, check out the Syracuse game information page below.
Syracuse Offense vs. Virginia Defense
As was the case against Western Michigan, the opposing offense is somewhat of an unknown, thanks to a new coaching staff at Syracuse. But the Cavalier coaches have at least two game tapes to examine what the Orange is doing. Syracuse was pretty vanilla against Buffalo, but the WVU tape should give the Virginia coaches a good look.
Against both West Virginia and Buffalo, the Orange attempted to move the ball much like the Cavaliers did in 2002 and 2003, with the short, timing-oriented passing game. But the Orange has yet to show that it can march the ball down the field with a sustained, first-down to first-down drive. Its longest drive against Buffalo took just 3:48.
Junior quarterback Perry Patterson (25 of 51, 244 yards, 2 INTs) has struggled in trying to adapt to head coach Greg Robinson ‘s new “west coast” offense. He has completed just 49% of his passes in the first two games and the ‘Cuse offense is averaging just 4.39 yards per pass attempt (YPA). Those numbers are well below the required level of efficiency required to move the football in the “west coast” system.
In Syracuse’s 31-0 win against Buffalo, it was able to supplement a relatively anemic passing game (10-22, 139 yards, 45%, 6.3 YPA) with 292 rushing yards from senior tailback Damien Rhoades (28 rushes, 236 yards, 4 TDs) and freshman running back Kareem Jones (14 rushes, 56 yards). That won’t happen against Virginia. With or without Ahmad Brooks , Virginia likely will crowd the line of scrimmage and force the Orange to beat the Cavalier secondary with an unproven passing game.
If the Cavaliers decide to blitz Patterson, Syracuse probably will use the screen pass to try and slow the pass rush. With a young secondary, Virginia may be hesitant to blitz, but considering the aggressive WVU pass rush recorded three sacks and the Orange line displayed a propensity to break down, the ‘Hoos will take some shots – but they must cover the screen. The linebackers and the secondary will need to keep the underneath pass plays in front of them. I like Virginia safety Tony Franklin in this position. He has excellent instincts, good closing speed and is a good tackler. Virginia might look to cover the back with a spy and blitz on obvious passing downs with the other linebacker from the nickel set.
The ‘Hoos also need to guard against the cut-back running ability of Rhodes. Syracuse deploys a zone-blocking scheme, relying more on the linemen’s hands, quickness and getting low on blocks than power. Most of Rhodes’ yardage against Buffalo came on cutback runs to the backside of the offense with the offensive line washing defenders down the line of scrimmage to create the back-cut openings.
Fortunately, inside linebackers Bryan White and Mark Miller, both of whom struggled against the WMU underneath passing game, are better run defenders. Kai Parham is superb against the run and Franklin is one of the top run support safeties in the league.
Virginia will force the Orange to beat it with the pass. It will crowd the line of scrimmage with defenders. Look for the frequent deployment of four down linemen, particularly on obvious running downs.
Al Golden may take some chances early with the blitz packages to see if a suspect Orange offensive line, still adapting to a new offense, can handle it. But it won’t just come from the linebackers; it will come from the secondary as well.
The keys are to make the Orange drive 75-80 yards to score by slowing the ‘Cuse running game and put it into third-and-long situations, blitz but do so judiciously and close the cut-back options for the Syracuse running backs.
Virginia Offense vs. Syracuse Defense
We have documented the lack of productivity of the Syracuse offense, but the Orange has countered with an aggressive defense that has kept opponents out of the end zone and forced seven turnovers in two games. Syracuse is ranked 9th nationally in total defense (231 YPG), 7th in pass defense (120 YPG) and 2nd in third-down efficiency defense (4 of 31).
The ‘Cuse linebackers are arguably the strongest unit on the defense. Middle linebacker Kelvin Smith leads the team with 15 tackles and has a sack to his credit. Kellan Pruitt flanks Smith on the outside and has been a frequent menace in opposing backfields with two tackles for a loss and a sack in the WVU game. Against West Virginia and Buffalo, the Orange has tried to pressure the quarterback and has been very active with the blitz.
That strategy may not work as well against Virginia for three reasons. 1) Marques Hagans is too elusive, 2) UVa has excellent tight ends who are smart enough and talented enough to get to a spot vacated by the linebackers, and 3) Virginia’s deployment of the tight ends and maximum protection options in the passing game.
The Mountaineers often ran to the left side of the Syracuse defensive front and had some success there. One key concern is that Hagans had a couple of passes blocked at the line of scrimmage against WMU and several West Virginia passes never got past the line of scrimmage.
As they did against Western Michigan, the Cavaliers will want to take some shots deep in order to open up the running game and to limit the effectiveness of the ‘Cuse secondary in run support. Senior free safety Anthony Smith intercepted two passes against Buffalo, and recovered two fumbles and forced another against the Mountaineers. Smith, along with senior cornerback Steve Gregory, excels at stopping the run and Virginia must find a way to take them out of the equation. The two Syracuse defensive backs have already accounted for three tackles for loss.
The Syracuse defense seems susceptible to a running quarterback and their defenders appear to have limited side-to-side pursuit speed. Defensive ends James Wyche and Ryan LaCasse (4 tackles for loss, 3 sacks) are superior speed rushers, but if Virginia’s tackles can seal the ends on running plays, or if the pocket breaks down and Hagans gets outside, the perimeter is open. Groh likes to run between the tackles and Syracuse had problems at times with the WVU interior running game, but I look for the Cavs to try and get to the edge either with sweeps and tosses, Hagans bootlegs or swing passes to the backs, especially fullback Jason Snelling, who is a mismatch waiting to happen every time he catches the ball.
Virginia’s offensive braintrust has two options for countering the aggressive Orange defense. Virginia could counter by mixing the run and deep passing game early, coupled with a Hagans rollout or bootleg to the off-side with a run-pass option. Hagans made plays with his feet last year and should have chances again Saturday. Offensive coordinator Ron Prince could then bring the play-action to try and get some big gains on an aggressive Syracuse defense worried about the running attack and a mobile quarterback.
If the pass-protection problems that were evident in the win over Western Michigan have been fixed during the off-week, this is a viable plan of attack.
If not, option two may be to establish the outside running game and short passing game to try and take advantage of the Orange’s weaknesses on the perimeter. If successful, this would force the Syracuse safeties to creep closer to the line of scrimmage, and when they do, take some shots deep or work the intermediate passing game with play-action. If the Cavaliers get the running game going early, however, a ball-control style may win the day.
This is a tremendous opportunity for Prince to mix and match his extensive offensive diversity and be very creative with his play-calling. The Syracuse defense to this point has been stingy, but Virginia’s speed at all the skill positions opens a world of options. Don’t be surprised if the Cavaliers attempt to move the football with the short passing game to open the offense.
Special Teams
Field position was a big difference maker in Virginia’s win over WMU and will play a pivotal role in Saturday’s game. Syracuse punter Brendan Carney is a force, averaging an impressive 45.1 yards per kick and a team net of 43.2. The advantage here definitely goes to the Orange.
The Syracuse coverage units are giving up an average of 28.2 yards per kick return and seven yards per punt return (78th in the nation). The Cavalier coverage units under Al Groh have been very good and with the return of Ottowa Anderson are back to form after a bit of a down year in 2004.
If this game comes down to the place-kicking game, the edge definitely goes to Connor Hughes and the Cavaliers.
Who has The Edge?
Quarterbacks – Virginia
Running Backs – Even
Wide Receivers & Tight Ends – Slight edge to Virginia because of the tight ends
Offensive Line – Virginia
Defensive Line – Even
Linebackers – Even (without Ahmad Brooks )
Secondary – Syracuse
Special Teams – Slight edge Virginia
Coaching – Virginia
Absolutes and Desirables
Absolutes are things UVa must do in the game. Desirables are things we’d like to see from the Cavaliers.
Absolutes
1) Ball Security – In the season opener, the Cavaliers had four fumbles (lost one) and threw two interceptions. West Virginia had a 339-103 yardage edge against the Orange and a 16-7 first-down edge and managed just nine points. Five WVU turnovers were the big equalizer. The Syracuse secondary is opportunistic and Coach Robinson has his players focused on getting 6-8 defenders around the ball. The Cavaliers cannot afford to turn the ball over.
2) Break some big plays – The Orange defense is stingy, and while it may not have the talent at Groh’s disposal, it has not allowed a touchdown in two games. Virginia needs to loosen the ‘Cuse 4-3 to open running lanes inside and that means effective use of screens and draws, and then taking some shots deep. Hagans will have his chances as the Cavalier coaching staff likely will put him in run-pass options frequently.
3) Force third and long – Syracuse has been exceptional at stopping opponents at converting on third downs (16.1%). Offensively, the Orange has had difficulty converting third downs, going 5 of 31. Virginia needs to limit the Orange’s effectiveness on first and second down, and that means shutting down the run and forcing Patterson to make plays in the passing game.
Desirables
1) Avoid the dreaded YAC – While Virginia did a nice job of limiting the yards per catch against Western Michigan, most of the Broncos’ receiving yardage came on yards after the catch. As part of limiting Syracuse’s effectiveness on first and second down, Virginia must tackle better and keep the YAC to a minimum. Fear the YAC.
2) Win the field position battle – Cedric Peerman had a spectacular debut returning kicks and Virginia did a nice job of coverage in the punt game against WMU. The Orange kicker is nothing special and the ‘Cuse coverage units can be exploited. The ‘Hoos must have a solid effort from the punting game and force the Syracuse offense to do something it has been unable to do all season long – drive the football down the field and score.
3) Get an early lead – The Syracuse fans are passionate about hoops and passive about football. The Orange fans couldn’t even fill the Carrier Dome against one of their biggest Big East rivals, West Virginia. But why take chances? Take the crowd out of the game immediately with a comfortable lead and ride that offensive line to a boring win.
Predictions
Greg: A lot of people are worried about playing in the Carrier Dome. I’m not. I’m worried about pass-blocking against an aggressive pass rush and Virginia’s creativeness in using a moving pocket and the short passing game to counter. I think Prince will call a great game and Virginia will take control early with the passing game and then pound the ‘Cuse with it’s power running attack.
Virginia 27, Syracuse 10
John: Before the season, I wasn’t worried about this game. I pencilled it in as a win, but now I’m inclined to erase that tentative “W” and just see what happens. I have to admit the opening game gave me serious doubts about the ‘Hoos. It wasn’t so much the turnovers and other mistakes that worried me – those things can be corrected – so much as the lack of overall physical dominance. Western Michigan is among the smallest and youngest teams in the country. Why couldn’t the Cavs control the line of scrimmage for more than a few series? Is Virginia simply not as talented as I thought, especially without Ahmad Brooks ? If UVa can’t whip an inferior opponent at home, isn’t that cause for concern given the tough road slate ahead?
I’m still picking the Cavaliers, but that’s more because Syracuse hasn’t done anything to change my mind. The ‘Cuse is a Big East mediocrity and if Virginia can’t beat Greg Robinson ‘s guys, it’s probably going to be a long season. I expect better execution and fewer mistakes, but I don’t expect dominance.
Virginia 24, Syracuse 17
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