Game Preview: Duke at #23 Virginia

Virginia Offense vs. Duke Defense

It’s hard to figure out what the Virginia offense does well to this point. We know quarterback Marques Hagans can run, we know tackles D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Brad Butler can block and it appears Deyon Williams can catch the football. Virginia is averaging 29 points and 229.5 rushing yards. That’s not bad, but consider that at this point last season, against two comparable opponents, the ‘Hoos had rushed for 292.5 yards per game and averaged 50 points.

The Duke 4-3 is an aggressive, high-risk, high-reward style of defense. In 2004, the Blue Devils finished third in the ACC in interceptions with 15 and fourth in takeaways with 26. They will attack with multiple fronts, zone blitzes and combination coverages.

The strength of the Duke defense may be the secondary, where safety Brian Greene and preseason All-American cornerback John Talley have combined for 46 career starts. Cornerback Deonto McCormick and safety Chris Davis have only 12 starts but have played in a combined 35 games.

With two interceptions this season, Talley is tied for first in the ACC and tied for 11th nationally. He led Duke with four interceptions in 2004. With some early-season interception issues, Hagans will need to be aware of Talley at all times. The Duke junior has excellent field vision, marks the ball quickly in the air and has a good feel for the routes and passing lanes.

The Devil front line is small, averaging just 272 pounds, and relies on quickness and stunts to attack the offense. The linebackers are average at best and, like the defensive line, are aggressive in attempting to force losses and turnovers.

There is little doubt that the Cavaliers could come out and dominate a patchwork and inexperienced Duke defensive front with a ball control, running game plan. But this game may offer the UVa offense a chance to establish some type of personality. Is this a running team like 2004, a passing team like 2002 or a balanced offense? We have talked at length in the spring and preseason about the diversity of receivers and backs and the versatility of Hagans. Virginia fans got a glimpse against Syracuse, especially in the first half, how effective that medley of speed, size and power can be.

The Duke game is a chance for Virginia to showcase everything. To give opposing defensive coordinators something to think about and force them to defend the multiple Virginia options. The Cavs must show that they can run on the interior, attack the force as they did with Michael Johnson against Syracuse, throw deep and connect short. They must be able to dominate the line of scrimmage for 60 plays, not for single, game-clinching drives.

I believe Ron Prince will have an aggressive game plan early, attacking the perimeter with tosses and possibly some option, while testing the Duke secondary with deep patterns, much as he did against Western Michigan. Duke does not have the pass rush of Syracuse and Virginia’s offensive front improved its pass blocking considerably from week one to week two. Because of the youth, especially on the interior, I expect fans will see significant improvement again this week because of the added repetitions and a weaker pass rush to contain.

Duke Offense vs. Virginia Defense

The Duke offense is led by Ralph Friedgen protégé Bill O’Brien, who arrived from Maryland to replace Marty Galbraith, fired after only one season. The Blue Devils were last among the 117 Division I-A teams in total offense last season, totaling 267 yards a game.

O’Brien developed his offensive style at Georgia Tech, where he served as the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach under Friedgen. He rejoined Friedgen at Maryland, spending the last two seasons directing the Terp running game. Virginia fans who remember the days of quarterback George Godsey, 1,000-yard rusher Joe Burns and All-ACC wideout Kelly Campbell at Georgia Tech will have a sense of the type of offense O’Brien wants to run. A diverse offense, with multiple sets, plenty of motion and a power running attack.

The quarterback is key in the O’Brien system. He relies heavily on a quick-thinking signal caller with the ability to manage multiple offensive options. He does not have that yet at Duke, and so the sophistication of those old Yellow Jacket offenses will not be evident Saturday. The Blue Devils have struggled on offense, averaging just 229 total yards and a mere 92.3 passing yards per game. The culprits? The offensive line and the QB.

Duke returned starting quarterback Mike Schneider, who threw for 1,527 yards and eight touchdowns as a sophomore, along with seven of its top eight receivers and its three top rushers from last year. Now we’re assuming Schneider keeps his spot. He finished 4 of 14 for only 14 yards passing against the Hokies, a week after throwing three picks against East Carolina. Last week against VMI (40-14 Duke win), rookie quarterbacks Zack Asack and Marcus Jones received their first action under center and junior Curt Dukes played in both the ECU and Virginia Tech games. Dukes is primarily a running quarterback, and with O’Brien likely to attack Virginia with the passing game, Dukes will probably not see significant playing time. But Asack, who went 4 of 4 for 38 yards against VMI might.

The offensive line is a patchwork crew with no depth. Its inability to pass protect is obvious and that is coupled by the receiving unit’s inability to get open. ECU’s rush ends had tremendous success getting to the quarterback (3 sacks) and the Hokie front four terrorized Duke quarterbacks (5 sacks) all afternoon.

Ronnie Elliott is the lone senior member of Duke’s 2005 receiving corps, and the group features one junior, one sophomore and five scholarship freshmen. The primary receiving threat for the Devils this season was expected to be the tight end combination of preseason John Mackey Award candidate junior Ben Patrick and senior Andy Roland. Patrick led the Blue Devils in receiving in 2004, catching 32 passes for 311 yards and a touchdown. Roland is one of the ACC’s top blockers and is Duke’s active leader in career pass receptions (56), receiving yards (855) and touchdown catches (6).

But the tight ends have been plagued by injury and ineffectiveness, combining for just eight receptions for 52 yards. Teams are re-routing the tight ends with the outside linebackers and covering the underneath routes with safeties, hoping to make the Blue Devils attack on the perimeter and take the inside routes away. The sacks have come when the Duke quarterbacks have been unable to hit their secondary reads.

That’s what I expect Virginia will do as well. Clog the running lanes with multiple-man fronts and take away the tight end option, forcing the Duke quarterbacks to find their second or third options. If the Cavaliers are successful at forcing the passing game to the perimeter, look for Tony Franklin and the other safeties coming through the middle with delayed blitzes as the quarterback focuses on the edges.

Also look for the Cavaliers to blitz often with the linebackers 1) because the Blue Devil offensive line is suspect and it’s the logical way to attack, and 2) in order to give Virginia’s corners experience at playing significant game-speed man-to-man coverage. This game will be a great opportunity to get Virginia’s young corners repetitions against players they can overmatch. Duke does not have a legitimate deep threat and that should allow Al Golden to blitz frequently without leaving mistake-prone young corners in precarious positions. The experience of substantial man-to-man coverage should be not only a tremendous learning and in-game teaching opportunity, but a confidence builder as well. That is, of course, if they have success.

Special Teams

Virginia may actually have the advantage in the punting game for the first time in a while and the Cavalier coverage units on both kickoffs and punts are consistently among the league’s best. Connor Hughes is the superior kicker and I look for the Cavaliers to win the field position battle easily.

Who has The Edge?

Quarterback – Virginia

Running Backs – Virginia

Offensive Line – Virginia

Wide Receivers & Tight Ends – Virginia

Defensive Line – Virginia

Linebackers – Virginia

Secondary – Even

Special Teams – Virginia

Absolutes and Desirables

Absolutes are things UVa must do in the game. Desirables are things we’d like to see from the Cavaliers.

Absolutes

1) Defend the tight end and underneath passing routes – Virginia made Syracuse tight Joe Kowalewski look like an All-American, and Duke has two tight ends who are legit All-ACC candidates. The blitz can take care of some of this but the outside linebackers and safeties have to do a better job of re-routing the receiver and communicating.

2) Ball Security – Virginia has fumbled or thrown an interception nine times in two games; the fact that only one fumble was recovered by the opponent is irrelevant. Better defenses will recover those fumbles. Last season Virginia set a school record for fewest turnovers, finishing third in the nation with just 10 of them (five INTs, five fumbles). After turning the ball over at least three times in six of the first 15 games under Groh in 2001-2002, the Cavaliers committed 3-plus turnovers in only two of their next 36 games. Now is not the time to revive that old trend.

3) Emotion – In his column prior to the start of the 2005 season, Nick Sauer suggested a key for success is for the ‘Hoos to “play angry.” They have yet to take his sound advice. This team needs to show some intensity. I want D’Brickashaw Ferguson to get in a young lineman’s face when he gets an illegal procedure penalty or gets a holding call away from the play. I want to see Wali Lundy let one of the younger running backs (or older ones) know when they miss a blitz pickup. I want to see an opposing tight end get up after a punishing hit and think twice before returning to catch a pass on an underneath route. I want to see the offensive line physically pound the Duke defensive front into submission. Virginia has the talent to defeat any team on its schedule but it does not have the margin of error to do so with stupid penalties, concentration mistakes, turning the ball over and a lack of emotion.

Desirables

1) Play mistake-free football – The Cavaliers have been plagued with ill-advised penalties, assignment mistakes and turnovers in the first two games, indicative of a young football team. We’ve addressed the ball security issue, but the personal fouls and illegal participation penalties are issues of concentration and must be eliminated.

2) Force turnovers – The Blue Devils have been prone to losing the football this season, fumbling nine times (losing four) and tossing four interceptions. Virginia has recovered just one opponent fumble this season and has only one interception. That needs to change and this would be a fine week to do so.

3) Make a big play on special teams – If you thought Virginia had punting woes the last few years, check out Duke. The Devils average just 24.8 net yards punting and Virginia Tech averaged 12.8 yards per return. Virginia needs something special. Hagans has done some terrific things in the last two games but someone else needs to step up. Someone else needs to make a play. The big hit that forces a fumble and the ‘Hoos scoop and score. The interception returned for a touchdown. Some life. I nominate Cedric Peerman or Michael Johnson in the return game to get it done.

Predictions

Greg: Since Duke upset Virginia in Charlottesville in 1999, the Cavaliers have won the two contests in Scott Stadium by a combined score of 58-10. There is a wider gap between these squads in 2005 than in previous seasons, but the ‘Hoos won’t overwhelm the Blue Devils. They won’t give up a touchdown either.

Virginia 37, Duke 9

John: Wow, reading Greg’s article, it makes Duke seem pretty bad. Oh yeah, Duke is pretty bad. Really bad, even. But the Blue Devils have been lousy for a long time and the Cavs still rarely blow them out. Take last year’s game. Duke trailed by just seven points in the fourth quarter before Virginia scored a few late TDs to win 37-16. Of course, there were reasons for that so-so performance. It came a week after a demoralizing loss to Florida State, one that left Marques Hagans too banged up to throw the ball effectively. So UVa piled up 348 yards on the ground (223 by Alvin Pearman) and did what it took to win the game.

Winning shouldn’t be a problem for Virginia tomorrow – I fully expect Duke to lose the rest of its games – but I think the game should be a good gauge of the team’s progress and potential. UVa’s young defense now has a little experience and will be facing one of the worst offenses in college football. There should be no excuse for giving up as many yards (341) and points as it did last year to Duke. (The key will be stopping tight end Ben Patrick, who caught five passes for 97 yards in last year’s meeting.) There’s also no reason Hagans shouldn’t be effective, and no reason the running game can’t be overpowering once again. In fact, there’s no real reason this game should be anything but a blowout – but that doesn’t mean it will happen.

Virginia 31, Duke 10