Game Preview: #19 Virginia at Maryland

The questions are many. Can Virginia run the football? Can Maryland run the football? Can the Wahoos win a key conference matchup on the road? Can the Terps win at home? Are the answers in this week’s preview? Will Batman get there in time to save the “Boy Wonder”?

For notes, stats, articles, depth charts, a roster card, a weather report and more, check out the Maryland game information page below.

  • Maryland Game Info

    Virginia Offense vs. Maryland Defense

    An early-season evaluation indicates there are some attack points in the Maryland defense. The Terrapins have proved suspect to misdirection and counter plays and have shown difficulty in maintaining containment on the edge. Maryland has also struggled with pick plays and combination option passing patterns. Big backs have also given the Terps problems and that makes Jason Snelling and a healthy Wali Lundy huge factors.

    Virginia has questions on offense.

    The big question regarding what to expect from the Virginia offense got answered to some degree last Saturday against Duke. Virginia deploys whatever scheme is necessary to win. This week that means attacking the Maryland secondary. Some may question that strategy when looking at the statistics. The Terps are dead last in the ACC in run defense, allowing 193 yards per game, while the Wahoos are second in the league with 189.7 yards rushing per game. Conversely, the Terps boast one of the nation’s top pass defenses statistically, yielding just 123 yards per game through the air and a 6.2 yards per pass average.

    Last week the young Terrapin defense came out strong against the Demon Deacon rushing attack, holding Wake to a season-low 120 yards. WFU was averaging 270.3 per game, eight best in the nation. But half of Wake’s 811 rushing yards in the first three games came against East Carolina. It comes as little surprise that Vanderbilt and ECU are in the bottom third of the NCAA rushing defense statistics.

    A closer look at Maryland’s two losses will show that the opposing trigger men completed an incredible 78% of their passes (26-33) for 264 yards – an eight yards per pass average. The Maryland secondary is young and untested. That is where the Cavaliers need to attack. Look for Virginia to attack with vertical passes, multiple crossing routes and dumps to the backs in the flat.

    I also expect Maryland’s defense to aggressively attack Virginia with the blitz early to test UVa’s untested lineman and, if they play, how well tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson and center Brian Barthelmes are dealing with last week’s injuries. The Cavaliers will likely counter with screens and draws. Even if the Terps do not blitz, the ‘Hoos must handle the Maryland pressure and that may mean more two-tight end and maximum protection calls. The Terps have sometimes had difficulty getting off blocks, which makes good line play all the more imperative.

    Maryland may also try the Duke strategy of trying to bottle up the running game with multiple-man fronts and force the Cavaliers to attack the league’s leading pass defense. I’m inclined to think the Terps will opt to play their standard, aggressive 4-3 and not expose their young secondary to Hagans’ arm, Virginia’s tight ends and an emerging Deyon Williams .

    There was little surprise that Hagans ran very little against the Blue Devils, but I expect him to play an extensive role against Maryland. To take advantage of Maryland’s propensity to over-run plays and with Hagans’ athleticism, Virginia may be able to fake with play action and run the bootleg to the backside, giving Hagans a run-or-pass option.

    Navy quarterback Lamar Owens amassed 122 yards rushing and West Virginia quarterback Pat White averaged 6.9 yards per carry (62 yards) against the Terps. Like Hagans, White has tremendous speed and playmaking ability, but unlike the Virginia quarterback is not a threat to throw.

    The offensive line will also play a key role in sweeping the defensive Maryland front down the line of scrimmage to open cut-back lanes for the backs.

    The Terps should also expect a heavy dose of Jason Snelling. Maryland has had difficulty with big backs and Snelling has the power, speed and pass-catching ability to complicate matters for Gary Blackney and his Terp defenders. That’s if he holds on to the football.

    Navy fullback Matt Hall, a little smaller than Snelling, compiled 68 yards rushing against the Terps. WVU’s 6-2, 250-pound Owen Schmitt, a hybrid tailback (like Snelling), pounded Maryland for 80 yards and a 13.9 yards per carry average. Schmitt lines up at fullback in the I-formation and moves to tailback when WVU goes to a two-back or single-back set. Sound familiar?

    With Snelling, however, there is that element of pass-catching that makes him unique to any of the big backs the Terps have faced. It also makes Snelling a more dangerous option for Virginia.

    This is a game where I’d like to see last year’s boring, pound them into the turf, ball-control running offense. I’m not sure the Cavaliers have the capability to do that. Virginia’s young interior linemen have had difficulty with average linebackers and that’s a scary proposition when you consider that Maryland senior LB D’Qwell Jackson is second in the nation in tackles (14.5 per game).

    Jackson is a tackling machine. He’s relentless sideline to sideline and he can fill a gap or scrape to the perimeter to stop an outside zone run. Try to zone block him, and he beats you with quickness. Try to run right at him, and he’ll stuff a lead fullback in the hole.

    Maryland has thrived with its high-pressure, zone-blitz defense. If the Terps can get pressure on Hagans, they could force him into throwing errant passes. Maryland could play more of a zone strategy and blitz selectively, but that’s not Gary Blackney’s style. It will be interesting to see the moves the Maryland staff will make in the blitz chess match. How Virginia adjusts will go far in determining who leaves Byrd Stadium with a victory. UVa’s backs and tight ends can slow an attacking defense but the Virginia staff will have to get the non-receivers involved in the passing game, especially against the blitz.

    If the ‘Hoos can dominate with the run early and deal with Jackson, the passing game will likely be too much for a good but not great Maryland defense. That is a big if.

    Maryland Offense vs. Virginia Defense

    The ‘Hoos surrendered 357 yards to Western Michigan in their opener but have allowed an average of just 233 yards over the last two games.

    After posting 207 yards rushing against Navy, the Maryland running game was non-existent against West Virginia (56 yards) and Clemson (50). The Terps apparently found their legs last Saturday against Wake, posting 162 yards on the ground. Keep in mind, we are not talking about the nation’s top run defense in the Deacs (65th nationally – 136 YPG); still, an improvement.

    Maryland has posted a seemingly impressive 15-of-17 scoring effort in the red zone, but a closer look shows just six touchdowns in 17 attempts.

    Its struggles in the running game and in the red zone notwithstanding, the most ineffective component of the Maryland offense is its ability to convert on third down. The Terps are converting just 23.4% of their third-down opportunities.

    Given those deficiencies, it would seem that Al Golden and the Cavalier coaching staff will focus on limiting the Maryland output on first and second down and focus on controlling the line of scrimmage and shutting down the Terrapin running game. Look for more four-man fronts than at any other time this season by the ‘Hoos.

    But during last week’s game at Wake, the Terps may have found a tailback who can carry the load. Keon Lattimore ran for a career-high 76 yards on 15 carries. They also got a boost from the play of freshman tackle Jared Gaither and with Derek Miller’s transition back to tight end. That allows the Terps to run more two-tight end sets and could lead to further improvement in the running game. Lattimore may be the answer, but any further failures in the running game could put undue pressure on quarterback Sam Hollenbach.

    Hollenbach has completed 62.2 percent of his passes for a league-high 965 yards and he leads the ACC in total offense (247.2). Teams have been putting lots of pressure on the junior and Virginia will do the same. When the Cavs blitz, however, they must look for the Fridge to counter with screens and crossing routes by the tight ends to try and slow down the pass rush. Don’t be surprised if the Cavaliers turn Clint Sintim loose on Gaither this week.

    If the ‘Hoos blitz, they better get to Hollenbach because Vernon Davis has proven he can find the open seams in the zones vacated by the linebackers. Davis is one of the most physically gifted players in Maryland history. He led the team in receiving yards last year from his H-back position, posting 441 yards (on 27 receptions). In four games this year, Davis leads the Terps with 15 receptions for 352 yards and two scores.

    Defending the underneath routes (Davis’s specialty) is not the strength of Mark Miller and UVa’s young outside linebackers. Virginia must put the Terps in obvious passing situations and trust that the problems we saw against Western Michigan and Syracuse have been resolved. If not, Davis could have a huge day and Virginia fans could have a long ride home.

    As Syracuse and Western Michigan proved, when teams exploit the soft middle of the Virginia zone, disaster can ensue. There are few coaches better than Ralph Friedgen at scheming a pinpoint passing attack.

    A pass rush from the down linemen is essential against the Terps if the Cavaliers want to limit the exposure of the Virginia safeties. The underneath defenders need to do a better job of denying vertical entry with jams, something they did better against Duke, and flatten out the routes to keep the Maryland receivers from running freely. Finally, the defense must be ready to attack the hot receiver and limit the yards after catch to prevent a big play.

    The focus for the Cavalier defense? Don’t deal with Davis after he catches the ball; keep him from making the reception. Win the field-position battle and force the Terps to drive long distances to score. Virginia’s opponents have entered the red zone just five times in three games and keeping Maryland out of scoring range is essential. Finally, the ‘Hoos must play exceptional defense on first and second down and make the ineffective Terrapins produce on third down.

    Special Teams

    College Park and Charlottesville are home to two of the top special teams units in the ACC. The ‘Hoos and Terps are second and third in the ACC in kickoff returns, respectively, and both teams have solid place-kicking games.

    The Cavaliers are fourth in the league in kickoff coverage, while Maryland owns one of the top punters in the nation. Last season Adam Podlesh maintained a 44.8-yard average (second in the ACC and 10th in the nation) while his net average (39.4) led the ACC and was seventh in the NCAA. Podlesh has dropped 36 percent of his punts inside the opponents’ 20-yard line. With a 45.4-yard average heading into this week, Podlesh ranks ninth nationally and leads the ACC.

    In a game that could well be decided by special teams, Chris Gould and his punting may be the key to win. Gould has been steady but a breakout game on the road against Maryland would be timely.

    Who has The Edge?

    Quarterbacks – Virginia

    Running Backs – Virginia

    Wide Receivers & Tight Ends – Maryland

    Offensive Line – Even (unless Ferguson and Barthelmes play)

    Defensive Line – Virginia

    Linebackers – Maryland (without Ahmad Brooks )

    Secondary – Even

    Special Teams – Slight edge Maryland

    Coaching – Maryland

    Absolutes and Desirables

    Absolutes are things UVa must do in the game. Desirables are things we’d like to see from the Cavaliers.

    Absolutes

    1) Score in the red zone – While Ralph Friedgen is best known for offense, as a head coach he has built his Terp teams around stout defense. But in the red zone, the Terps have been anything but stout. In 11 red-zone situations the Terps have allowed 10 touchdowns. The ‘Hoos have scored nine touchdowns and four field goals in 15 red-zone opportunities. Points could be at a premium in this game and Virginia must produce when inside the 20.

    2) Again, avoid the dreaded YAC – Not yards after catch, but yards after contact. The Wahoos need to get four and five players around the ball on every play. With a still-developing offensive line, Maryland needs its running backs to excel in yards after contact. According to Friedgen, Lattimore broke eight tackles against Wake Forest last weekend, and Davis usually has to be brought down by three or four defenders. Tackling well is critical.

    3) Win the field-position battle – The Terps play a possession game; they are not a big-play team. The longer the field, the greater chance to slow a Maryland advance and create opportunities for turnovers. Virginia must focus on getting three or four first downs on every series. The punting and coverage units will be required to execute better than at any other time this season.

    Punting is going to be critical. Maryland has one of the top punters in the nation. Podlesh gets excellent lift, distance and ball movement on every punt. His kicks limit not only the quality of the return but limit returns, period. If the ‘Hoos can make something happen in the return game, it will be huge.

    Desirables

    1) Contain “The Duke” – You can’t stop Vernon Davis , you can only hope to contain him. Against West Virginia, Davis’ 73-yard touchdown reception got the Terps back into the game and showed how explosive Davis can be. Davis must be stopped at the point of a reception because man-on-man, he will likely not be stopped by a lone defender with a head of steam in the open field. The best idea: don’t let him catch the ball. Double-team him, triple-team him, tie him to the flagpole until the game is over. Whatever has to be done, don’t let Davis dominate the game. Seriously, my guess is Virginia will try and jam Davis at the line and re-route him. “Fridge” will likely counter by moving him off the line, but that forces a deeper drop and gives a little more time for the rush to get to Hollenbach. “The Duke” will get his catches. The key is to get four or five guys there right away and put him on the ground.

    2) Assignment football – The Cavaliers will likely see something against the Terps they have not seen all season – the option. Friedgen is a master at mixing the possession passing game and the deep vertical game with options and reverses. Virginia will see it all. The key for the Cavalier defenders is to keep the plays in front of them, play disciplined assignment football, not overpursue and tackle well. Expect the “Fridge” to test Virginia’s young linebackers and secondary members who have yet to defend the option at the collegiate level. Don’t be afraid to give up an eight-yard gain but certainly do not allow an 80-yarder.

    3) Jump on the Terps early – I am not convinced the Terps can play one-dimensionally or come from behind. I’d like to find out. If Virginia gets out early with a 10- to 14-point advantage, I like its chances.

    Predictions

    Greg: George Welsh never liked to call a game “huge,” but early in the 2005 season this game is huge. There are a lot of ways to exploit the Maryland defense but it starts up front. If Virginia can pass block and get production from the running game, it can score on the Terps. I’m candidly concerned about the offensive line and the Cavaliers have areas of weakness to attack as well. A win against the Terps requires a lot of “ifs” going the Cavaliers way. I don’t like a lot of “ifs.” Virginia has proven suspect to average tight ends and good receivers on the underneath routes; Vernon Davis is no average receiver. If the Cavaliers can’t find a way to deal with Davis, it won’t be a fun afternoon. Virginia also needs to do something it has rarely done under Groh and that’s win against a decent opponent on the road. That means also doing something the Cavs haven’t done in two attempts under Groh – win at College Park. Until the ‘Hoos prove they can do those two things, the advantage has to go to an improving Terrapin team. If all the “ifs” go Virginia’s way, this will be an inaccurate prediction.

    Maryland 23, Virginia 21

    John: I’ve been going back and forth on this prediction all week. To me, it’s a real tossup. On one hand, I think Virginia has a little more talent than Maryland. On the other, that talent advantage is negated if Brooks, Ferguson, Lundy and Barthelmes aren’t at full strength. On one hand, UVa has performed poorly on the road in recent years and has laid an egg in its last two games at Byrd. On the other, Maryland hasn’t protected its house very well since making those stupid Under Armour commercials (2-4 last six home games).

    Greg did a great job of analyzing the matchups. But what will decide this game, I believe, will be turnovers, field position, intensity and luck. Those things are difficult to predict, which is why I honestly think this could go either way. But it’s hard to give the ‘Hoos the benefit of the doubt right now. They haven’t looked like a top-20 team, despite their 3-0 record and #19 ranking. Maryland’s not anything special, either, but the Terps represent a significant upgrade from Western Michigan, Syracuse and Duke. Not only will the Cavs have to demonstrate better execution than they’ve shown so far, they’ll have to play with more emotion. It will be a test of their toughness, senior leadership and resolve. I think there are legitimate questions about all of those things with this team, so we’ll find out some answers Saturday.

    Maryland 26, Virginia 23 (OT)