North Carolina Offense vs. Virginia Defense
With an average of 245.8 yards per game, Matt Baker is on pace to break Darian Durant’s single-season passing record of 2,551 set in 2003. He has thrown for 220 yards or more in four of his first five starts and leads the ACC in yards per completion (15.0). Baker has a live arm but a 9-to-11 career touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 53% career completion percentage confirms the perception that Baker struggles with his consistency.
Unlike FSU’s Drew Weatherford, Baker will pull the ball down and run.
He may not want his quarterback running, but John Bunting likes to run the ball and the Tar Heel offense works best when it is balanced. The win over N.C. State clearly shows that when Baker has a running game the Heels can be very effective. North Carolina has talked a lot this week about how running the football will be important. Offensive line coach Hal Hunter has done a terrific job of molding the Carolina line, so UNC’s difficulty running the ball is perplexing.
The big issues have been negative plays on first down, a lack of big plays and poor recognition of available running lanes. “There’s some yardage we’re missing when we don’t follow the scheme or don’t see the cutback,” Bunting said. “There have been some times we’ve run up the back of a lineman rather than run into a hole. There are some vision things we have to be concerned about.”
Against Wisconsin, UNC’s running backs netted just 20 yards on first down plays, leaving the offense in difficult positions on second and third down. With the exception of Barrington Edwards’ 62-yard burst against the Wolfpack, North Carolina has just three runs of over 15 yards in 139 attempts
The return of Ronnie McGill could help. McGill, who had been sidelined all season with a torn chest muscle, saw his first action of the year in the loss at Louisville. He had a team-high 12 carries for 29 yards and scored on a 1-yard run. McGill played in seven games last season and finished third on the team with 419 yards rushing on 79 carries.
The Tar Heels are also glad to see receiver Jarwarski Pollock back from October 7th knee surgery. Pollock is UNC’s most dependable wideout and is five receptions shy of the school career record. Pollock said he feels about 90 percent and will wear a knee brace.
Jesse Holley is emerging as a go-to receiver. The junior currently ranks 10th in the league in receiving yards per game (52.2), including a career-high 90 on five catches against Wisconsin. He has had at least four catches in five of the last six games.
With Carolina’s vertical passing attack, don’t be shocked if the Cavaliers deploy the same defensive scheme against the Tar Heels as they did against FSU, with a heavy emphasis on the nickel. North Carolina has yet to prove it can run the ball with any consistency, so until it proves otherwise, take away the pass.
UNC’s skill players are some of the best the Cavaliers have faced, and could be some of the best they face all season. The offense deploys a two-back system and former Virginia offensive coordinator Gary Tranquill knows a little about using the tight end. UNC’s second-leading receiver is tight end Jon Hamlett (13 receptions, 149 yards). Like Virginia, the Tar Heels will keep their tight ends tight, slot them or split both in their two-tight end set.
Tranquill is known for creating matchup issues with unique personnel and formation groupings. As noted, UNC will flank or slot the ends, as well as its running backs. Tranquill also has no issue turning to a spread set if the running or base passing game is ineffective. In this formation, the Heels can attack a suspect Virginia interior pass defense with quick hitters to their big ends and receivers, plays that were very successful against N.C. State. Expect to see more zone coverage to keep those type of plays contained.
Florida State ran a wide spread but rarely moved the ends or backs away from the ball. A key for Virginia’s young secondary will be to identify its keys in those odd sets and understand what the offense is trying to do. Having seasoned veterans like Ahmad Brooks and Kai Parham anchoring the defense is a plus.
So while I certainly expect the Heels to attempt to move the ball on the ground, the UNC staff has no issue diverting quickly to the passing game, where they should have some confidence in attacking a young Virginia secondary that has given up 258 yards passing per game (11th in the ACC).
Virginia Offense vs. North Carolina Defense
For the first time in recent memory, a Virginia running back is not among the top 15 rushers in the ACC. Overall, the Cavaliers are seventh in the ACC in rushing offense. In order to win Saturday, that will need to change. Now to be fair, Virginia abandoned the running game against Florida State as the backs carried the ball just 16 times for 38 yards. UVa’s rushing average dropped from 170 ypg to 145.
Though the Tar Heels are ranked sixth in the ACC in rushing defense, I expect that with D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Brian Barthelmes close to 100% and the return of right tackle Brad Butler following his one-game suspension, the Wahoos will look to play power ball with the Heels. Of course, as hot as quarterback Marques Hagans was against the ‘Noles, Ron Prince might want to see if Hagans can cast some more wizardry over another ACC opponent. After all, it is just a week away from Halloween.
After Boston College provided what appeared to be a sound recipe for containing the elusive Hagans, the Seminoles inexplicably decided to attack him as opposed to playing containment with the end. The Tar Heels likely will try to contain Hagans rather than attack him. The key, said UNC defensive tackle Kyndraus Guy, is to keep Hagans in the pocket, “because if he gets outside he is a dangerous guy. Whenever he’s in the pocket, he doesn’t look to stay there. If we gang-tackle him and make him suffer, that’s our goal.”
Uh, sure Guy, if you can catch him.
But after finishing 100th or worse in each of the last three seasons in total defense, UNC currently is ranked 65th in the country, allowing 375.6 yards per game. The impetus for that improvement has been an aggressive pass rush that over the last five games has yielded 16 sacks, just four fewer than in all of 2004. The Tar Heels are second in the ACC and 14th in the country in sacks per game and they’ve done it by being aggressive up front.
UNC’s eight-man defensive line rotation has accounted for 12.5 of the team’s 16 sacks, as have five of six quarterback hurries and 25% of its pass breakups. Do the Heels want to play containment instead of continuing with what has been successful this season? That’s the big question and the Tar Heel coaching braintrust has had two weeks to decide.
For my money, NFL guys like John Bunting and Al Groh typically like to maintain consistency and do what works. UNC defensive coordinator Marvin Sanders was brought in from Nebraska two years ago to install an aggressive defense and he has done that. Sanders likes to blitz. The Tar Heels seem to understand the system more this year and possess more team speed on defense than in past years.
So I look for UNC to forgo the BC template and try and come after Hagans, but to do so with a more controlled rush, splitting the defensive ends wider and attacking with speed. The Seminoles tried the same strategy in the second half a week ago. UNC will try and pinch the pocket and obstruct Hagans’ vision and hope he’ll make a mistake. If that’s the case, I like having Butler and D’Brickashaw back because both have the footwork and technical blocking skills to manage an outside rush.
The dilemma for Sanders is if he takes wider splits with his ends, that leaves the Tar Heels vulnerable to the inside rushing game. This allows Prince to open up the playbook and attack with the backs inside and the tight ends over the middle as the linebackers creep up to defend the run. Hagans not just opens up the offense with his run/pass ability; he opens it up by forcing defenses to adjust to his abilities, opening up other avenues for attack.
My UNC insiders tell me that Bunting will likely shy away from the idea of trying to shadow Hagans with a linebacker. That makes sense considering the Tar Heel middle defenders do not have the lateral speed of Florida State’s LBs and the Seminoles couldn’t catch Hagans.
One thing that North Carolina and Virginia have in common is struggling secondaries. Passing yardage has come far too easily for opposing offenses as the Tar Heels have allowed 253 yards per game through the air, five fewer than Virginia. Carolina’s secondary is deep with talent, but has yet to play its best football.
Louisville did a nice of mixing formations and personnel groups, confusing the UNC defense. Virginia can do the same with its mix of size and speed at wide receiver, tight end, fullback and tailback. The Cavs also have an extra dimension – Hagans’ ability to run with the ball.
I liked the gameplan against FSU – attacking the deep zones and seams with tight ends and receivers, pulling the defenders out of run support early. I see Virginia going back to that strategy but with one significant change. The ‘Hoos will look to run the ball once the secondary is focused on the passing game. After softening the linebackers with the tight ends, expect Virginia to mix the draws and screens from the shotgun. Prince may also opt for more designed runs from Hagans than we saw a week ago.
Special Teams
This has the potential to be a close game and it never fails that the difference between winning and losing close games is turnovers and special teams. Carolina’s special
teams are enjoying success under first-year coordinator and former Cavalier assistant Andre’ Powell. The Tar Heels’ kickoff return team is third in the ACC, averaging 27 yards per return. The Cavaliers are fourth in the ACC in kickoff coverage. Virginia is fourth in the league in returns while the Tar Heels are eighth in coverage. Carolina’s net punting average of 37.5 is fifth in the conference, five spots ahead of UVa.
Virginia will need to contain freshmen sensation Brandon Tate, who ranks sixth in the nation in KO returns with a 32.2-yard average and fifth in the ACC in punt returns. If Tate has the ball, he is a threat to score. I like the touchback here.
UNC sophomore Conner Barth has recorded mixed results with the team’s place-kicking and kickoffs. He has missed six of nine field goals this season, and is just two of four from inside 39 yards. Ten of Barth’s 21 kickoffs have been touchbacks, compared to 20 of Kurt Smith’s 37.
Connor Hughes has made 11 of his last 12 field-goal attempts (a 52-yard miss against Duke) and nine in row. He is two points shy of Gene Mayer’s school scoring record (293) and needs nine points to surpass former Georgia Tech kicker Scott Sisson for 10th in ACC history. By the way, Sisson’s field…OK, I’ll let it go.
Virginia has been able to contain big-time return specialists this season and should be able to do the same this week. This could be another Todd Braverman-type Chapel Hill moment and, if so, I like the Connor in orange and blue.
Who has The Edge?
Quarterbacks – Virginia
Running Backs – Even
Wide Receivers & Tight Ends – Slight edge North Carolina
Offensive Line – Even
Defensive Line – Even
Linebackers – Virginia
Secondary – Even
Special Teams – Slight edge Virginia
Coaching – Even
Absolutes and Desirables
Absolutes are things UVa must do in the game. Desirables are things we’d like to see from the Cavaliers.
Absolutes
1) Pressure Matt Baker – In UNC’s three losses, Baker completed just 51% of his passes, threw five interceptions and got sacked 10 times. The four-man pass rush Virginia deployed against FSU flustered freshman quarterback Drew Weatherford and this will be Baker’s first starting experience with Virginia’s complex 3-4.
2) Running game bookends – Simply put, stop the run and run well. The best way to contain the aggressive UNC offense is to keep it off the field. The best way to slow an aggressive pass rush is to burn it with 7-10 yard runs and then burn the secondary with play-action.
3) Red-zone defense – This is becoming a broken record, but until Virginia can be a more dominant defense, we’ll keep making it a key. One of the better teams in the ACC a year ago in the red zone, North Carolina has struggled this season. The Tar Heels are 8 of 15 in red-zone opportunities (.533) and rank 12th in the league. Of their seven missed opportunities, three came on missed field goals, two by interception, one by fumble and one by downs. The ‘Hoos have allowed opponents into the red zone 19 times and only nine have scored a touchdown.
Desirables
1) Another fast start – Aggressive play-calling and solid execution put the Seminoles on their heels from the start of the game. FSU was forced to play catch-up from the opening drive and never did. If the Heels fall behind and start passing a lot, that should play right into Al Golden’s gameplan. With a lead, his 3-4 defense is hard to handle.
2) Contain Brandon Tate – Special teams mistakes cost the ‘Hoos against Miami last season and against BC this season. Tate is a game-changer and an element of the UNC attack that must be handled. My comfort level with the kickoff coverage is solid but I worry about a low, returnable punt. Chris Gould needs to worry about loft more than distance Saturday. I’ll take a non-returnable 37-yard punt over a line-drive 48-yarder.
3) Go with the flow – I believe this game will afford both Prince and Golden a chance to show their coaching creativity. Especially on defense, North Carolina has matchup problems with Virginia that will require ongoing, in-game adjustments. Prince needs to recognize the modifications and quickly attack the holes. Same for Golden. Quick recognition of what Tranquill is trying to do with his offensive sets and being prepared to defend the Carolina spread offense are essential.
Predictions
Greg: If either of these teams establishes the running game, it will win, and that bodes well for Virginia. Marques Hagans provides numerous matchup problems for a Carolina defense that has had success this season by pressuring opposing quarterbacks. If the Heels get no pressure on Hagans, he will pick apart an inconsistent UNC secondary. If they pressure him and miss, Hagans will pick apart an inconsistent UNC secondary. Look for a good blend of vertical passing and inside running from the Virginia offense and a 400-plus-yard effort.
Defensively, fans will see more of Virginia’s new-look nickel package and a focus on shutting down the UNC passing game. If the Tar Heels can have some success running, that could make for a long day for the Cavaliers, but even if the Heels produce between the 20s, I like Virginia’s red-zone defense to shut down Carolina.
It’s good to pick the ‘Hoos to win again. Hopefully, I won’t be wrong this week.
Virginia 27, North Carolina 17
John: Fans may look at each team’s most recent game – UVa’s win over FSU and Carolina’s 55-point loss to Louisville – and wonder how in the world the Tar Heels are favored. Because college football is nuts, that’s why.
As oddsmakers know, unless there’s a huge talent discrepancy, the better team doesn’t always win. The home team usually does. The more energetic team usually does. And the more desperate team usually does.
That all spells trouble for the Cavaliers, who simply haven’t been able to generate the same passion, energy and fortitude on the road that they regularly display at Scott Stadium. That’s why they’ve won 19 of their past 21 home games but are just 6-12 in ACC road games under Groh.
The Tar Heels were embarrassed by the Cardinals but have otherwise had a respectable season, beating N.C. State and Utah and losing close games to Georgia Tech and Wisconsin. They’ll be eager to redeem themselves, plus their bowl hopes likely hinge on beating Virginia. I have no doubt they’ll play with intensity. It will be up to the Cavs to match it.
Still, I’m picking Virginia for a few reasons. First, the ‘Hoos are healthier than they’ve been all season. Lundy, Ferguson and Brooks, in particular, help UVa match up against anybody in the ACC when they’re on the field and productive. Also, I may be a sucker, but I believe what the Cavs have been saying ever since they beat Florida State: They’re rejuvenated. They’re a different team. Their season began last Saturday. They shocked the world, now they’re ready to rock.
We’ll see. If nothing else, Virginia should have enough confidence and enough talent to beat a lower-echelon ACC team on the road. If not, we’ll be right back where we were two weeks ago, and that thought is pretty unbearable.
Virginia 24, North Carolina 21