Say what you will about North Carolina (and we know what most Sabre posters like to say), but reserve a little praise for the Tar Heels when it comes to special teams. As bad as the 2006 season has been, UNC has been solid in that phase of the game. Kicker Connor Barth is 5 of 5 on field goals and 12 of 12 on PATs this season, the kickoff coverage unit is nationally ranked, and the punt teams are decent as well.
Special Teams
A case can be made that the Cavaliers almost certainly have the advantage defensively and possibly offensively as well. The one aspect of Carolina football that has shown some consistency this season is special teams. For Virginia, consistent is certainly not an apropos description for the play of the special teams.
Virginia coordinator Bob Diaco’s units have given up big plays on special teams. Fake punts and field goals have already had success against the Wahoos this season and muffed punts have been big momentum shifters in two games (Pitt and Maryland). Trying to do anything it can to win, the Tar Heels have done everything from on-side kicks to fake field goals. Late in the second quarter against Southern Florida, kicker Connor Barth ran a fake field goal attempt from midfield down to the Bulls’ 15 yard-line. It was negated by a penalty, but it shows that Virginia’s special teams must be alert for anything Thursday night.
Another battle to watch is Virginia’s improving kickoff return game vs. UNC’s kickoff coverage unit, which is ranked third in the nation. North Carolina is allowing just 14.4 yards per return. The Heels led the country in kickoff coverage entering the USF game last week, but allowed three returns for 56 yards. Returns of 27 and 28 yards by the Bulls were the first time since the Virginia Tech game that the Heels had allowed a return of longer than 18 yards.
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Tony Franklin has provided a boost in the kick return game. |
Conversely, the Virginia return game had another productive week against Maryland as new return man Tony Franklin netted 26.2 yards per return and Virginia started its post kickoff possessions at the 30.4-yard line on average. UVa is sixth in the conference with a 21.8 kickoff return average, while UNC is at ninth (19.8).
The Cavaliers (3rd ACC) trail the Tar Heels in net kickoff coverage yardage by just 2.2 yards.
After suffering through a sophomore slump in 2005 where he connected on just 11 of 21 field goal attempts, junior place-kicker Connor Barth seems to be back in his freshman groove at UNC. He has made all five field goal attempts this season and he is a perfect 12 of 12 on PATs. Barth booted a career-best 52-yard field goal against South Florida. He has connected on 30 of 44 career field goal attempts and 70 of 72 career extra point tries. Virginia kicker Chris Gould is perfect from inside the 40 (6 of 6) but Gould and Noah Greenbaum are just 2 of 8 from beyond 41 yards.
Both the Hoos and Heels are in the middle of the ACC rankings in punt returns, standing at sixth (8.4 YPR) and fourth (9.5 YPR), respectively.
The difference in this contest could come down to which team can get the most out of its punting operation. After a good start to the season behind Gould, the Cavaliers have tapered off and have fallen to seventh in the ACC in net punting at 36.6 yards per punt. North Carolina is just behind the Hoos in the eighth spot with a 35.9 net. In a game where field position could be key, if Gould or UNC’s David Wooldridge (41.3 average, 5 fair catches, 9 punts inside the 20) can have a big night, it could bode well for their respective teams.
Match-Ups to Watch
UNC Offensive Line vs. Virginia Pressure. If you think things have been unsettled on Virginia’s offensive line, check out the Tar Heels. Over the first three games of the season the Carolina front line allowed just two sacks. Over the last three games, however, they have given up 10. The Cavaliers are second in the ACC and 13th nationally in quarterback sacks (3.3) and tackles for loss (7.4). When the Heels can get their zone blocking working and the power run game going, then they can be difficult to defend. Carolina’s most competitive games this season have come when they have had success running the football.
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UVa should try to isolate Jonathan Stupar or other tight ends against UNC safeties. |
UNC Safeties vs. UVa Tight Ends. North Carolina strong safety Kareen Taylor is a nice ball player whose strength is defending the run. Cooter Arnold and D.J. Walker have unsuccessfully tried to replace Trimane Goddard, who is out for the season with an injured foot. The production is simply not there and with the loss UNC’s top pass rusher, linebacker Larry Edwards, the pressure on the middle third of the UNC defense just ratcheted up a notch.
The Tar Heel safeties have appeared over-matched against the better pass catching tight ends they’ve encountered so far this year. Without Goddard, UNC does not appear to have the athletes to match up with superior receivers. Virginia must take advantage of that. Tom Santi and Jonathan Stupar are good enough and fast enough, Jameel Sewell can make the throws, and Virginia’s seam passing attack to the tight end and slot receiver is well suited to attack the Carolina secondary. There are holes here that can be exploited.
UNC Defensive End Hilee Taylor vs. UVa Offensive Tackles. With the loss of Edwards, Taylor easily becomes Carolina’s most prominent pass rushing threat. Taylor is an excellent edge rusher and that means a busy day for Zac Stair and company. It’s uncertain if defensive coordinator Marvin Sanders will move Taylor to the left side of the defense against the left-handed Virginia quarterback, but both tackles need to be ready to take on the junior defensive end. A first-year starter, Taylor is tied for fourth in the ACC with three sacks to go with four stops for loss. Of his 43 career tackles, 8.5 are sacks.
Absolutes and Desirables
Absolutes are things UVa must do in the game. Desirables are things we’d like to see from the Cavaliers.
Absolutes
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Eugene Monroe and the offensive line have helped improve the running game. |
Run With Authority. After averaging 51 yards per game rushing in the first four contests of the season, the Hoos have started to look like a team that can move the ball on the ground. Starting with a solid 4.6 yards per carry average from the running backs against Duke, Virginia has built on that success with a 153-yard outing against ECU and a 181-yard performance this past weekend against Maryland. This season Rutgers (217), Furman (229), Clemson (324), and South Florida (234) all recorded 200-plus yards rushing against the Tar Heels, who posted a 1-3 record in those three outings. With UNC’s best defender and run stopper out for the game, look for the Hoos to start pounding early to soften up the Heels for the Jameel Sewell aerial unit.
Tight End Time. This is the week Virginia needs to get the ball to the tight ends for big gainers. The Carolina safeties are the weak link in the secondary and the seams are going to be wide open. While the tight ends have almost matched their 2005 total of 31 receptions (27 in 2006), the production in yardage is off 190 yards from last season (450 to 260) after seven games. The improved play of the line and facing a UNC defense with an anemic pass rush should free up the ends from their protection responsibilities and afford them some big play chances in the middle of that Carolina defense.
Mix It Up. Virginia fans should be encouraged by a Virginia pass offense that ripped the third best pass defense in the ACC for 243 yards. Fans should also like the aggressive play calling on first down where the Cavs averaged an astounding 11.6 yards per play against the Terps. That was a result of Mike Groh and the offensive brain trust moving away from previous tendencies and trying new things.
The play callers now need to take a look at short yardage play calling and look to make some changes. Maybe it’s time to stop treating third-and-short as third-and-short. Virginia has become predictable and stoppable. In just three short weeks, Jameel Sewell has proven he can operate in space and on the move – nothing is more difficult to defend than a quarterback with a run or pass option. Roll Sewell out with a pass or run option, give him some freedom to make plays on a bootleg, or just give him the ball on a quarterback keeper.
Everyone in the league knows the stretch pay is coming on third-and-short. Everyone. Also keep in mind that UNC has been very susceptible to reverse passes, reverses, double reverses, and gadget plays in general. The home fans love those.
Desirables
Jump On The Heels Early. Everyone else has. The Tar Heels have been outscored 56 to 31 in the first quarter this season and 114 to 54 in the opening half. Aggressive play calling and solid execution put the Terps on their heels from the start of the game last Saturday. Maryland was forced to play catch-up from the opening drive and had it not been for three gift-wrapped touchdowns, they never would have made it back. If the Heels fall behind and need to rely on the pass, that should play right into Mike London’s hands. London chose not to get after fifth-year senior Sam Hollenbach, but if North Carolina trigger-man Cam Sexton thought he saw pressure from USF last week, he’ll definitely understand pressure after facing the Hoos.
Success In The Red Zone. The Virginia offense is third in the ACC in the red zone, scoring 14 of 16 times – too bad 6 of those 14 were field goals. In three red zone chances (from the 14, 4, and the 21) against Maryland, the Cavaliers netted 8 total yards on 10 plays, resulting in two field goals and one lost possession on downs. U-G-L-Y.
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Carolina ranks dead last in the ACC in red zone defense, allowing an astounding 26 of 28 scores, including 24 touchdowns. Talk about needing to change the play calling – how about the UNC defense in those situations? The Hoos will get some looks in the zone against the Tar Heel defense. Let’s hope they have the same success Carolina’s other opponents have had.
Big Play Momentum. Against a Maryland defense that is considerably better than UNC’s, the Virginia offense produced 12 big plays (running plays of more than 12 yards and passing plays of more than 15 yards), which included six plays in excess of 20 yards. In six games, the Heels have given up an average of five big plays per game. Look for Mike Groh and the offense to attempt to build on last weekend’s success and create more big play opportunities this week.
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