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Chris Long is an emotional sparkplug for the Hoos – they’ll need his leadership boost for the noon start. |
Virginia needs to win three of its last four games in order to achieve .500 and bowl eligibility. While it may be a far-fetched goal, the Hoos are focused on giving it a shot. Will the rest of the season unfold like a Cinderella story or will it implode like a film noir? The answer begins with a noon kickoff against N.C. State and a cinematic look at the Keys to the Game.
You Snooze You Lose
Ahmad Hawkins said earlier this week in “The Hawk’s Nest” Edge feature that noon games are the hardest for teams. Because of the early kickoff time, players are thrown into the gameday routine with breakfast, a bus ride, and pre-game preparation. That means there is no time for morning meetings to review the game plan.
That doesn’t even mention the sluggish feel of noon games. Fans aren’t quite as riled up from tailgates, students are a little late arriving, and the atmosphere can be a little lackadaisical.
But there is good news for the Hoos. N.C. State is 0-3 in noon starts and has scored just 12 points in the first quarter all season long. Virginia, meanwhile, is 1-0 after thrashing Duke in Durham. In that game, UVa created its own energy and momentum early in that game and never let up. A similar start today could lead to similar results.
Gone With The Wind
The Sabre’s own weather guru, Jason Samenow, has forecasted a windy day in Scott Stadium. With crosswinds expected, that puts the focus on two things: Which team can win the running game battle and which quarterback can find a way to throw the football?
Let’s look at the running game first. NCSU’s Andre Brown and Toney Baker provide a dangerous 1-2 punch in the backfield. Led by Brown, who has two 100-yard rushing games this season, the Wolfpack can put up a ton of yardage in a hurry. On the flipside, Virginia’s Jason Snelling has picked up steam in October and set a career high last Thursday against North Carolina. If either team can get one of a back going, it likely will have control of the contest.
On the quarterback end, UVa’s Jameel Sewell has also shown improvement throughout October. Can he keep it going against the Wolfpack? Sewell’s play will be a key ingredient in the outcome.
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Jameel Sewell could have a big day rushing the football on bootlegs or option plays. |
Dazed and Confused
So how do the Cavaliers get the running game going? That’s a simple response, but not a simple game plan.
The Hoos have to keep the Wolfpack guessing and use their aggressive pursuit against them. NCSU comes after you on defense and really pursue the ball well as a team. That means misdirection plays like traps and counters, playaction plays with bootlegs and downfield throws, and option plays where the defense has to choose which player to defend first.
This is where Sewell could be a major factor. He is really good at selling run on playaction fakes and he can throw the deep ball really well. Add in his ability to run on bootleg plays and he could have a big, big game against the Pack.
The Edge of Reason
With all that said, the Cavaliers can’t simply try to run the ball to the edges. N.C. State is far too fast and pursues far too well to attack the perimeter of the defense routinely. Of course, the Hoos will still go to their favorite stretch play with pulling linemen leading the blocking train. They should limit how often they go to the well, but they could use the stretch play to set up bootleg chances for Sewell.
On the flipside, Virginia needs to control the edge on defense. At times, the Cavaliers’ 3-4 defense loses contain on the perimeter when the outside linebackers get sealed by a blocker. The results of that can be disastrous against good backs. Need proof? Just look at the Maryland and Western Michigan games from Scott Stadium earlier this year. Two edge runs led to big gains and eventually points for the visitors in those games.
Please Turn Over
Ultimately, all the analysis and all the predictions and all the talk can boil down to one thing: turnovers. N.C. State is minus 9 in turnover margin this season. Last week alone, the Pack gave the ball away three times. That led to 17 Maryland points. Throw in N.C. State’s struggles with penalties (the visitors average 8 flags a game in four losses this season) and miscues could be a huge factor.
The Cavaliers have a sterling record under Al Groh when they commit fewer turnovers than the opponent. But against NCSU, that factor has been huge regardless of the head coach in orange and blue. Since 1983, the Hoos are 10-2 against the Wolfpack when committing fewer turnovers.
