We Are Going To Win

By: Kris Wright |

Darius Jennings and the Hoos eye a bowl bid in 2013.

The long offseason is almost over. Virginia’s new football coaches have installed their schemes. David Watford has been named the starter at quarterback. A potentially explosive defense is ready to enter attack mode.

During game week, we’ve looked at notes, things to watch, key matchups, and the opponent’s take as BYU comes to town. The game kicks off Saturday at 3:30 p.m. on ESPNU.

What’s left before then? Some final thoughts and the pick.

Throughout the offseason each year, I’m often asked what I think about the upcoming season. This summer has been no different. Typically, I try to provide some background logic and then the likely window of wins that the Hoos will fall into by the end of the season. This first Friday column for the 2013 season seems like the proper place to recap and relay those thoughts.

One thing that has been mentioned frequently about the 2013 UVa football team is the lack of seniors on the roster. The Cavaliers have just eight active seniors (Sean Cascarano is out with an injury). Yet, that doesn’t concern me like it does some. Why? Age is different than experience. And many of Virginia’s key players have a lot of experience.

In my mind, there is something about the 15-game mark or so in a player’s career that marks the key division point. From that 15-game marker, some players start the rise to consistent playmaker and potential star while others plateau out with little true progress the rest of their career.

So when I look at UVa’s roster, I don’t see a young team per se. Here’s what I mean:

That’s 25 players on the two deep among the upper classmen with 13 players owning double-digit starts already in their career. More importantly in my mind, however, is the fact that 21 of those 25 players already have passed that 15-game marker that is a critical junction point in my mind. Many of the key juniors started to show their potential after that point last season. A few examples: Jake McGee ‘s 15th game was Penn State when he really emerged on everyone’s radar as a big-play threat; Darius Jennings led UVa in receiving yards last season with 568; Dominique Terrell started to shine down the stretch with 15 catches and 164 yards in the last four weeks of the year; Daquan Romero followed a similar rising pattern late in the year with 25 tackles in the last four games.

Many of the team’s key sophomores will cross that threshold early in 2013. Eli Harold , Adrian Gamble , Maurice Canady , Demeitre Brim , David Dean , Mike Moore, and Ross Burbank all have at least 11 games under their belts already, meaning all of them will hit the 15-game marker in September. Even David Watford has 10 appearances to his credit.

So what does that mean to me? It means Virginia is going to be better than many predictions indicate. There are a lot of players with good recruiting rankings as part of good classes that are entering the “veteran” phase of their career regardless of their age.

That matters when you look back at last season when many of them were still earning their stripes only to lose four games by one touchdown or less (plus Duke and UNC were highly competitive before the game spiraled to a more lopsided final score). In other words, as disastrous as last season was with special teams blunders, the great timeout caper of Virginia Tech, and a quarterback carrousel, the Hoos were still in the hunt for bowl eligibility. If one or two things break their way in October …

Look, I’m not going full-fledged Koolaid Man on you here. I will tell you that this team is not that far off. I will tell you that the talent pool and competition level has increased dramatically. I will tell you that experience matters. And I will tell you that the schedule is challenging. And I will tell you that Virginia has to prove itself on the field still. And I will tell you that new starters at quarterback, center, and middle linebacker can be hard to overcome.

Yet in my mind, a lot of things – recruiting and coaching changes namely – are about to pay off for Virginia. This team is going to earn a bowl bid. I think 6-6 or 7-5 is the most likely outcome with 4-8 or 5-7 possible (especially if injuries occur at critical spots). All I can think of is the promotional clip with Coach London that eventually led to student signs:

“We are going to win.”

The Pick

So with all of that said, what about the opener with BYU?

Virginia can win if … it prevails in turnover margin. One of the main culprits in UVa’s struggles since 2007’s Gator Bowl year has been the turnover problem. After finishing in a tie for 41st nationally at +0.15 that bowl season, the Hoos have not been in positive territory again (they were even at 0.0 in 2009). Not surprisingly, the program has just one winning campaign in those seasons from 2008-2012.

With that said, in order to win the Cavaliers need to set the tone for their new defensive mindset in the opener and force some turnovers. Of note, BYU tied for 76th in turnover margin last season at -.23 after committing 25 turnovers in 13 games.

Virginia can lose if … it continues to struggle in the red zone and in scoring even with a new offensive coordinator in town. Under Bill Lazor the past three seasons, the Cavaliers have struggled to finish drives with touchdowns (2012-tied for 73rd at 60% TD%; 2011-tied for 105th at 50% TD%; 2010-tied for 55th at 61.2% TD%) and struggled to score points (2012-95th nationally at 22.8 ppg; 2011-86th nationally at 23.2 ppg; 2010-tied for 75th nationally at 25.3 ppg). The last time UVa landed in the top 50 in the scoring category was 2004 when it tied for 27th nationally at 30.25 points per game.

To land in the top 50 again, a team will need to be around that 30-point barrier. The top 50 teams over the past three seasons have been right around that mark or well above it. That’s also the number likely needed to beat BYU if its three-year average holds firm (they Cougars have averaged 28.3 points over the past three seasons, but they also have a new offensive coordinator this season).

Steve Fairchild, please fix this.

And the winner is … Virginia 30-24. And I think, to everyone’s delight, a special teams play turns the tide.