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Tim Smith and Kevin Parks celebrate a touchdown against VMI last week. |
Mirror, mirror on the wall, which team is the real deal after all?
Going into this week’s ACC match-up, it seems like fans on either side of the Virginia-Pittsburgh fence have the same feelings. Both sides thought 2-1 was the “best case scenario” record at this point in the season. Both sides thought it would take a few weeks for their team to find its sea legs. Both sides thought they would know more after this week.
So basically, both UVa and Pitt should have this game circled on the calendar as a potential swing game and potential turning point for the 2013 season. That could lead to dreams of postseason play and being a Coastal Division contender or it could lead to a “back to the drawing board” feel entering October. There’s no such thing as a season-destroying game in September for teams outside of the National Championship picture so this isn’t a proverbial must-win contest for either team, but it could give either side a big boost toward bowl eligibility. With that in mind, I expect an intense and physical contest in the Steel City on Saturday.
Are the Hoos ready for that sort of test?
There are two sides to that coin. On defense, the Cavaliers seem more than ready to go toe to toe with their ACC cohorts. After all, no one owns a dominant offense outside of maybe Clemson. That means an aggressive and confident defense can make a lot of things happen in this league. That’s exactly what we’ve seen so far from Virginia. The players clearly have bought into what Jon Tenuta is selling and the defense believes it can be a disruptive force that stops offenses. There are still mistakes being made and there is still room to grow, but the timing and success of the defense appears to be improving each week.
The offense, on the other hand, doesn’t provide much inspiration. Players have talked about the need to “trust” their ability and instincts. They’ve talked about it “taking time” to get the offense going. They’ve said they felt a “sigh of relief” after scoring on a long play against VMI. None of that exudes a lot of confidence does it?
Even if you assume that offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild has been holding some wrinkles back and easing the team and a new starting quarterback into his system on game day – and I suspect that’s the case – there isn’t a lot of belief from the offense. Yes, players say the right things about scoring against anybody now that they showed it against VMI and how they’re almost there. I don’t get the sense that they really and truly believe it, though.
That’s where the talk of finding an identity has come from in recent weeks. The offense doesn’t buy into any strength in particular so it is floundering. If that doesn’t change, swing games like this one at Pitt become a tough test to win unless the defense utterly dominates like it did against BYU.
So Virginia fans, and Pitt fans too apparently, have arrived at a circled date on the calendar. They should know more about their teams after this week.
The Pick
Season to date: 3-0.
Virginia can win if … it limits explosive plays by Pitt’s offense. The Panthers have 19 plays of more than 20 yards this season and 7 of those have gone for touchdowns. It doesn’t look like UVa’s offense is ready to win any sort of shootout so the defense must keep Pitt from scoring easily through the big play routine. If the defense can do that and move quarterback Tom Savage off his spot consistently, then the Cavaliers can grab the win.
Virginia can lose if … it doesn’t fix the turnover mess. I’m fine with a defensive identity that features a ball-control, low-scoring offense as long as the turnover margin category lines up with that mission. It hasn’t in years. In terms of turnover margin per game under Mike London, it looks like this: -1.7 so far this year, -1.17 last year, -.54 in 2011, and -.58 in 2010. Either the defense needs to start forcing A LOT more turnovers or the offense needs to take care of the ball. Virginia has gained 3 turnovers on defense this year (2 fumbles, 1 INT), but given the ball away 8 times (2 fumbles, 6 INTs). If the Hoos do a similar dance this week in the Steel City, they’ll lose and lose big.
And the winner is … Pitt. I’ve been trying to convince myself to pick Virginia all week long. I even told Richmond radio’s Wes McElroy after picking Pitt in an interview for his Wednesday show that I may change my mind by Friday. I haven’t. A lot of signs in the match-ups point to a dead even game so I think it is a toss-up, but I don’t trust the offense to fix the turnover and scoring issues even though Pittsburgh’s defense is shaky. That means I have to take the Panthers. Pitt 23, Virginia 16.
