99 Virginia Football Thoughts Before Kickoff

Virginia kicks off football season this weekend!
Brenton Nelson snared four interceptions last season. ~ Mike Ingalls

The Virginia football team took a big step forward last season when it ended a six-year bowl drought. As mentioned at times in this “99 Virginia Football Thoughts Before Kickoff” series, part of the formula to get back to bowl play was an improvement in the turnover margin category. UVA ended up -1 on the season, the third best mark since 2008.

While the Hoos bettered their turnover margin, however, they didn’t take full advantage of the improvement.

The “99 Virginia Football Thoughts Before Kickoff” series nears completion.

No. 3 – More Opportunistic

Earlier in this series, an entry pointed out that Virginia snared more interceptions last season than in the previous two years combined. In fact, the 15 picks matched the best production of the last decade and tied for the third most in a season since 1998. The 1998 and 2001 teams had more (16 and 18), while the 1999, 2002, 2005, and 2014 teams also took away 15 passes.

With three fumble recoveries in the mix too, the Cavaliers finished the season with 18 takeaways. The Cavaliers didn’t take full advantage of those turnovers, though. They scored just 34 points after the takeaways with four touchdowns and two field goals. Seven possessions ended with a punt and five ended in another way like a turnover on downs, halftime, or a missed field goal.

Not surprisingly, the team got better results in the win-loss column when it took advantage of turnovers. Five of the six scores after takeaways all came in wins.

The Hoos scored a touchdown after a Chris Peace INT against William & Mary. They kicked a field goal after a Micah Kiser fumble recovery against UConn. Quin Blanding returned an interception for a touchdown against Duke. A field goal followed a Brenton Nelson pick against North Carolina. UVA scored a touchdown after a Blanding INT against Georgia Tech. The only exception to the trend came against Pitt, when the Hoos scored after a Blanding interception but didn’t win the game.

The defense didn’t come up with opportunities stops after UVA turnovers either. The Cavaliers committed 19 turnovers on the season and opponents tallied 11 touchdowns and one field after those miscues. That’s a total of 80 points following opponents’ takeaways.

Many of those scores came in UVA losses. Boston College posted a pick-6 touchdown. Pitt scored a touchdown after an interception. Louisville put up points after both a fumble and an interception. Miami did too. Virginia Tech scored a touchdown after a fumble recovery. Navy scored a pair of touchdowns after Cavalier fumbles. So eight of the 12 scores following takeaways came in opponents’ wins.

Overall, the turnover difference on the scoreboard favored the opponents by 46 points. That’s a huge margin. Virginia averaged just 1.8 points after its takeaways, while opponents averaged 4.2 after their takeaways.

The lack of opportunistic football showed up in some field position situations too. UVA started drives in opponent territory 18 times last season, but scored on just 10 of those possessions. (Note, there’s some overlap with the points after turnovers here obviously; a takeaway set up the field position on six of the 18 possessions.) The Cavaliers helped their stats in this category against Georgia Tech. They scored four times after starting on the Yellow Jackets’ side of the field, nearly as many times (six) as in all the other games combined. Overall, the Hoos posted points 55% of the time when starting in opponent territory.

On the other hand, opponents started drives in Virginia territory 24 times in 2017. They scored on 17 of those possessions. (Note, there’s some overlap with the points allowed after turnovers obviously; a takeaway set up the field position on eight of the 24 possessions.) Overall, opponents posted points 71% of the time when starting in Wahoo territory.

One could argue that opponents taking advantage of field position cost UVA a chance to win against Indiana and Miami in particular. IU took over in Cavalier territory four times and scored three times (17 points in a 34-17 win). Miami took over in Cavalier territory five times and scored on all five trips (31 points in a 44-28 win). Also, Virginia Tech’s only touchdown in a 10-0 win followed good field position after a turnover.

Overall, the field position capitalization margin favored the opponents by 57 points (107-50). UVA averaged just 2.7 points on its possessions starting in opponent territory, while opponents averaged 4.5 points when starting in Cavalier territory.

If the Wahoos are going to make it to back-to-back bowl games for the first time since 2004 and 2005, this is an area that likely will need to improve in 2018.

The “99 Virginia Football Thoughts Before Kickoff” series has discussed much more. The previous articles are below. Click away.

2 Responses You are logged in as Test

    1. Doesn’t count as a turnover in the official stats I don’t think. But even with the +2, it doesn’t look too much rosier.

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