Three-List Game Preview: Virginia Football Seeks Bowl Eligibility Saturday Versus North Carolina

By: Chris Horne |

The University of Virginia football program looks to build on its 2-game winning streak when its hosts rival North Carolina this Saturday afternoon, October 27 in Scott Stadium. The Hoos and the Heels will be facing off for the 123rd time, with Virginia looking for its first home win over UNC since 2008. UVA defeated North Carolina in Chapel Hill last season thanks to 136 yards rushing from Jordan Ellis and 100 yards receiving and a touchdown from Olamide Zaccheaus.

Last year’s victory at North Carolina boosted Virginia’s record to 5-1 on the season and 2-0 in the Atlantic Coast Conference. The Cavaliers take a 5-2 record and 3-1 mark in the ACC into this year’s matchup with the Tar Heels, who are 1-5 and have lost three-straight.

Virginia is coming off wins over then No. 16 Miami at home and a tough Duke team on the road. Although UNC is 1-5, this is no time for the Hoos to take the Heels lightly.

“I like the scheme. I like their talent. I think they’re explosive and capable,” Virginia head coach Bronco Mendenhall said of head coach Larry Fedora’s Tar Heels during his weekly Monday press conference. “The same thing on the defensive side. It’s, I think, very good ACC talent with strong coaching and execution within schemes that probably just hasn’t been quite as consistent as they would hope. But, again, the capability is certainly there. They’re probably just looking for a little more consistency.”

North Carolina is playing good football coming in, especially on offense, totaling 522 yards against Virginia Tech at home on October 13 and 500 yards against Syracuse on the road on October 20. The offense was balanced in both games – 287 yards passing and 235 yards rushing versus the Hokies and 321 yards passing and 179 yards rushing against the Orange. UNC held fourth quarter leads in both games only to let wins slip away in heartbreaking fashion, first losing by three to Virginia Tech touchdown with 19 seconds left in the game and then falling to Syracuse in double overtime, 40-37.

UNC boasts a good offensive line and is led by junior quarterback Nathan Elliott, who has had a roller coaster career in Chapel Hill up to this point. The 6’1”, 215-pound signal caller was subpar in UNC’s first two games this season, throwing four picks in a loss to Cal and completing only 22-of-38 passes for 219 yards in a blowout loss to East Carolina. Elliott was ineffective in a 47-10 loss at Miami as well. Conversely, Elliott’s statistics have been very good in a win over Pitt (22-31, 313 yards, 2 TDs) and close losses to Virginia Tech (11-15, 147 yards, 1 TD in relief duty) and Syracuse (34-52, 321 yards, 2 TDs).

There isn’t much behind Elliott because of injuries, so the Tar Heels will need a good game from him on Saturday to complement a potent running attack.

On Saturday, in what could be a wet Scott Stadium, Virginia will need to keep the focus it has exhibited the past two weeks against Miami and Duke. The Cavaliers performed well in all three phases of the game in last week’s win at Duke, and Mendenhall praised the “complementary football” exhibited by his team. Can the Cavaliers keep their momentum going against one of its main rivals? See you in Scott Stadium at 12:20 p.m. Saturday to find out.

Virginia Football Essentials

Three Big Questions

1. How is North Carolina faring mentally?

A talented UNC team surely is frustrated with a 1-5 start, especially blowing the last two games against Tech and Syracuse. Virginia is obviously a must-win game if North Carolina wants to rally and salvage a successful 2018 campaign, but how will the heartbreaking losses of the past two weeks impact the Tar Heels? Will they be deflated or determined? Further, if this is a close game in the fourth quarter and things start to not go the Tar Heels way, will a “here we go again” mindset kick in?

2. Can Virginia’s defense slow a hot North Carolina offense?

Larry Fedora’s offense has totaled over 500 yards of offense in each of its past two games, including a 522-yard performance against Virginia Tech. The Tar Heel offense has been balanced, with 287 yards passing and 235 yards rushing versus Virginia Tech and 321 yards passing and 179 yards rushing versus Syracuse. Based off these last two games, the Cavalier defense will have its hands full Saturday afternoon.

3. Which rushing attack will shine?

Virginia senior running back Jordan Ellis is a catalyst for a Cavalier rushing attack churning out almost 183 yards per game, but he missed the entire second-half of the Duke game with an ankle injury. Coach Mendenhall was optimistic but noncommittal regarding Ellis’ status for the UNC game. If Ellis plays, will he be at full strength? If not, are Virginia’s backup running backs, headlined by sophomore P.K. Kier, ready to shoulder the load?

On paper, Virginia has the rushing advantage coming in, but Ellis’ health and UNC’s offensive success the past two games could be cause for concern. UNC is averaging 187.8 yards rushing per game, but the Tar Heel defense is surrendering 188.5 yards per contest. Virginia’s defensive unit is giving up only 119.7 per game.

Three Big Foes

1. Running backs Michael Carter and Antonio Williams.

Virginia came away with the win at UNC last season, but the Cavaliers received a glimpse of how good Carter can be, as he rushed 13 times for 157 yards and two touchdowns. Carter (1) and Williams (2) have eclipsed 100 yards rushing in three games this year. The former is more of a speed running back while the latter checks in at 210 pounds, but both can break big plays.

2. Defensive End Malik Carney.

The 6’3”, 245-pound senior will be available on Saturday against the Hoos. Carney, a native of Alexandria (VA), has been excellent in the three games he has played in this year, totaling 5.5 sacks in total against California, Miami and Virginia Tech. Virginia’s tackles figure to have their hands full with him on Saturday.

3. Wide Receiver/Returner Dazz Newsome.

Anthony Ratliff-Williams may be the “go-to-guy” when it comes to Tar Heels receivers, but Newsome appears to be hitting his stride and is a playmaker as a receiver and punt returner. Look no further than last week’s game against Syracuse for evidence, as Newsome had seven receptions for 90 yards and a touchdown and a 75-yard punt return for a score against the Orange. Additionally, Newsome had 53 yards receiving and 51 yards in punt returns against Virginia Tech. The Hampton (VA) native will also get an occasional carry and throw an occasional pass for the Heels (he threw a 43-yard pass against VT), so he could be one to watch if/when Fedora employs some trickery.

Three Trends To Watch

1. Closing Out Strong (Or Not)

North Carolina has not been good in the second (minus 47 points) and fourth quarters (minus 29 points) this season. The Tar Heels held fourth quarter leads in each of its past two games only to watch Virginia Tech and Syracuse come away with victories.

Virginia has played its best football in the first and fourth quarters, outscoring opponents by 25 in the first and 21 in the fourth. The Hoos responded very strongly when Duke closed the gap to six in the fourth quarter last week, ultimately closing out with a 28-14 victory in Durham.

2. UNC’s Poor Turnover Ratio

North Carolina ranks no. 126 in the nation in turnover margin, surrendering 15 turnovers (seven fumbles lost, eight interceptions) while forcing only seven (three fumble recoveries, four interceptions). The Tar Heels broke even in the past two games, forcing Virginia Tech and Syracuse into two turnovers apiece while giving up the ball twice in each game. The ratio could be much worse if the Tar Heels hadn’t recovered eight of their 15 fumbles in total this year.

Meanwhile, Virginia has gained 13 turnovers (10 interceptions, three fumble recoveries) and lost 11 (seven interceptions, four lost fumbles).

3. Pressuring The Quarterback

The Virginia and North Carolina rushing attacks are very likely to be the focus of each team’s defense on Saturday. However, in the passing game, the edge in terms of getting to the quarterback is with UNC. The Tar Heels have tallied 20 sacks in six games while allowing only eight, while Virginia has totaled 15 sacks and given up 18. Virginia managed four sacks last week against Duke, so let’s hope this performance continues. The priority is stopping the Tar Heel rushing attack, but the Hoos also have to get pressure on Elliott in the passing game. Conversely, the Hoos’ offensive line will need to protect Bryce Perkins from a talented UNC pass rush.

Hey, Remember When …

So it has been 10 years since Virginia defeated North Carolina at home? Kind of hard to believe. If the Cavaliers can snap the current losing streak to the Heels at home, they would become bowl eligible for the second-consecutive season. I see more points going on the board than 10 years ago, when Virginia won 16-13, but let’s hope for the same result!