The Virginia basketball team remains on the road Saturday for its annual trip to take on Louisville. Before the top 20 showdown hits the hardwood, it’s a good time for an “Ask The Sabre” segment presented by AskLandis.com.
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Here are a few questions and answers about the Hoos with Sabre Editor Kris Wright and Sabre Associate Editor Chris Horne.
Ask The Sabre
Is Louisville for real? Our two games with them are the toughest remaining games on the schedule. It sure looked like they hedge harder than we do, and are as opportunistic to create turnovers. I think we have a better offense, but maybe you have watched more games than I have. How worried should I be about these guys? ~ 3 U Circle
Sabre Editor Kris Wright: The Louisville game with Chris Mack now in charge feels like it could be in the mold of UVA-Clemson games to me. Maybe not as low-scoring as some older versions of that ACC matchup, but a similar grinder vibe may be in store. A few things jump out about the Cardinals. First, they’re a good half-court defensive team that allows 0.948 points per possession (ppp) to rank 56th nationally per TeamRankings.com. More importantly, as noted in the question, they force turnovers on 16.1% of opponents’ halfcourt possessions and considering UVA’s troubles there lately, that could be the biggest challenge to get things going in this one. Secondly, Louisville has really struggled against zone defense. The Cards have managed just 0.749 ppp against zones this season, which ranks in the 3rd percentile per Synergy Sports. UVA won’t play zone much if at all, but can the Pack-Line stay connected and force similar problems? If the answer is yes, then the worries grow. So keep an eye on turnovers and gap integrity on defense.
Sabre Associate Editor Chris Horne: Louisville is for real, but no doubt the Cardinals are facing some adversity. Just look at the past two weeks. Chris Mack’s squad blew a double-digit lead in the second half in a road loss to Florida State on February 9. Then, on February 12, the Cardinals played tremendous basketball before the epic collapse at home against Duke. Since then, Louisville squeaked by Clemson by one-point at home (Feb. 16) and were blown out by Syracuse on the road on Wednesday. The Cardinals shot just 25.9% from the field (21.4% from 3) against Syracuse after making just 35.2% of its field goals (31.6% from 3) against Clemson. It has been a rough stretch for sure for Louisville, so there is a question of their mindset coming in. I think they’ll be amped up to bounce back against the No. 3 Cavaliers. Virginia will need to take good care of the basketball against and athletic and pesky defensive team, not only to be efficient offensively but to prevent fastbreak points for the home team.
Kyle Guy already has 20 more rebounds than he did all of last season. What are the reasons for this significant increase? ~ Stimp
Sabre Editor Kris Wright: More experience, more determination. I think it starts there as much as anything. Coach Bennett challenged the guards to rebound better earlier this season and they’ve responded consistently since then. Plus, the Cavaliers lost Isaiah Wilkins and Devon Hall from the lineup and that duo combined for 10.4 rebounds per game last season. Braxton Key has replaced a lot of that, but Guy, Ty Jerome, and De’Andre Hunter all have upped their rebounding averages from last season too. This year’s team is forcing fewer turnovers as well and that means more rebounding opportunities.
Sabre Associate Editor Chris Horne: Two-plus years in Virginia’s strength and conditioning program have helped. Not only is he rebounding better, I think he is better at absorbing contact on drives and finishing. Additionally, there is the on-court experience he has as a third year, and perhaps he is putting more emphasis on getting rebounds.
I am very happy with Kyle’s year. 1st team ACC and 2nd or 3rd team All-America? What do you think? ~ sfb123
Sabre Editor Kris Wright: It will be interesting to see how All-ACC voting shakes out for Virginia’s players this year. It doesn’t seem likely that they’ll land two players on the first team line. Do voters go with Guy thanks to his eye-catching shooting ability, with De’Andre Hunter thanks to his shot-creating ability with NBA hype, or with Ty Jerome for his playmaking ability and competitiveness? Guy was on the first team last season and the ACC Tournament MVP a year ago so that voter familiarity may help. I think we’ll ultimately see Hunter on the first team and Guy on the second team in the ACC voting unless Duke and UVA each get multiple players on the top list. Guy still could land on some All-American lists, though. Regardless, Guy is a better all-around player this year and doing more things more consistently for his team. So UVA fans should be happy with his performance.
Sabre Associate Editor Chris Horne: Kyle is certainly deserving of first-team All-ACC honors. I think he gets in there, and I also see an All-American honor or two for him as well.
How do you think coach Tony Bennett’s approach to the rotation is different than last year heading into March? Do you think there are lessons learned from prior years (not just UMBC) on this that impact the NCAAT approach? ~ wahoo, M.D.
Sabre Editor Kris Wright: I don’t know that I see a significant change in the rotation approach this season with one or two exceptions. The Hoos are still locked into a seven- or eight-man rotation, for example, and that’s in line with what’s typical for Coach Bennett, who has played between seven and nine players (and only nine when giving someone spot minutes) regularly throughout his tenure. The exceptions with the rotation, however, may be important. One, it seems like he is more willing to go to lineups to try to get an offensive spark this year. That usually includes one of Mamadi Diakite or Jay Huff along with the big three. More importantly, however, there has been a willingness from the beginning of the season to sometimes deploy ‘super small’ lineups with Braxton Key and De’Andre Hunter as versatile forwards. That gives Coach Bennett lineup options that can be like a swiss army knife when it comes to March matchups. Basically, you send out Key, Hunter, Ty Jerome, and Kyle Guy to play with Diakite in one version or if you need even more of a perimeter-oriented group you flip Diakite for Kihei Clark. That could be valuable come tourney time.
With your crystal ball, who do you feel of current offers out there that we have the best shot with, and any guess on timeframe for a commitment? Do you feel Carson McCorkle is going to reclassify, and would that likely depend on if for some reason we lost Kyle Guy and/or Ty Jerome to the draft if they were likely going to stay in it? Worst case scenario, if we lost De’Andre Hunter, Guy, and Jerome to the draft, where does that shift recruiting priorities coming up? How many scholarships would we then have? ~ Oregon Hoo
Sabre Associate Editor Chris Horne: A lot of recruiting questions, which is fitting because there could be a lot of questions should Hunter, Jerome, and Guy leave after this season. I don’t think the worst case scenario will happen, but certainly Cavalier fans have reason to pay close attention come NBA Draft declaring season.
Landing Braxton Key not only has paid off this year, but he can move right into the starting lineup next season. With Key and class of 2019 4-star guard Casey Morsell, who I think can and will play a significant role next season, Virginia seems to be in good shape to replace Hunter should he choose to turn pro. The possibility of Jerome turning pro after this season was perhaps unexpected but appears to be very real, as he has popped up in some projected 2019 NBA Draft first rounds. If he leaves, the Cavaliers do have a need for another ballhandler in the backcourt. If Jerome and Guy leave, UVA has a definite hole to fill in the backcourt next year. Virginia has continued to be active in terms of recruiting high school seniors – Montverde Academy (FL) wing Harlond Beverly was offered by the Cavaliers in December – and is eyeing other backcourt prospects as well. This spring, keep an eye on the transfer market and high school seniors reopening their recruitments.
If Hunter is the only departure, I think UVA will be selective with the one scholarship that would be available next season. The amount of attrition – and who leaves – could change things, though.
As for my crystal ball, we’ll start with 2019. I don’t think Virginia has gotten much traction with Beverly at this point. There was some chatter about class of 2020 target Walker Kessler, a post with offensive skill on the perimeter and in the post, possibly reclassifying into 2019. Virginia remains a serious contender here but is battling Duke, Georgia (strong family connections there plus the Bulldogs just landed 5-star guard Anthony Edwards in 2019), Michigan and Vanderbilt, among others. Outside of these two, no other high school seniors have emerged as serious possibilities, but again I’m sure the staff is evaluating others and will see what happens on the transfer market this spring.
For 2020, I think Coach Bennett would have loved to land a commitment or two last fall. That didn’t happen, although the Hoos did secure a pledge from a potential class of 2020 prospect in guard Carson McCorkle, who is currently in the class of 2021. As I mentioned I think Virginia remains in serious contention with Kessler. The Hoos have hosted Kessler, point guard Reece Beekman, wings Keon Johnson and Johnny Juzang, and combo forward Terrance Williams on official visits. Virginia has also hosted Richmond (VA) combo forward Henry Coleman III multiple times. At this point I still think the best bets for UVA are Beekman, Coleman III, and Williams. I’d be surprised if Keon Johnson does not wind up as a Tennessee Volunteer.
McCorkle has said he will decide this spring whether he reclassifies back to his original class (2020) or if he stays in 2021. With zero 2020 commitments in the fold and five scholarships available (assuming Hunter is gone), right now it certainly makes sense for Virginia to take McCorkle in 2020 if that’s what he wants to do. The decisions of Jerome and Guy don’t have a direct impact here, although indirectly they could be a factor if UVA is able to secure a few highly regarded backcourt recruits/transfers this spring should they decide to leave.
Good stuff Kris and Chris, thanks.
Guy’s rebounding numbers come because Devon isn’t around to snap em up. Key gets the rest because Zay isn’t, either. You mentioned it earlier but it’s worth highlighting because it’s almost like Devon packed a moving box with “rebounds” written on it and just handed it to Kyle as he was walking out the door.