The Virginia men’s basketball team is 2-0 after traveling to Syracuse and taking down the Orange in the Carrier Dome, 48-34, and dismantling JMU in Charlottesville, 65-34. While most pundits and Cavalier fans expected nothing less than two victories in these matchups, the Hoos provided plenty to be analyzed. Let’s take a deeper look and break down what we have seen so far from the Cavaliers that has led them to this 2-0 start.
What we expected …
Anybody familiar with college basketball now associates this team with defense, no matter the roster. Even after losing four starters from last year’s team, this year’s squad was still expected to be a defensive-minded team. Through two games, the Hoos have lived up to these expectations and then some. As a result of this stellar defense, I will actually discuss this more in depth in the section below.
Ty Jerome was among the four starters lost from a year ago. It was no secret that Jerome was the Cavaliers’ conductor the last two seasons. With his departure, everybody knew that job would have to be filled by sophomore Kihei Clark. Following his performances last season, the Virginia faithful were confident Jerome was leaving the offense in good hands with Clark. He never looked rattled as a true freshman, and this was never more evident than when he orchestrated the greatest play in Virginia basketball history in the final seconds of the Elite Eight game against Purdue. That type of calm and display of high basketball IQ is what fans of the Hoos are expecting this season from Clark, and they have already received that in his first two games this season. He looks more than capable of leading this Cavalier offense.
While the offense may be run by Clark, it succeeds as Mamadi Diakite does. Coming into the season, it was known that Diakite would have a much greater role on offense than he did last year. He has more experience than any other Cavalier on the floor, and comes in with the goal of convincing NBA scouts and executives that he can succeed at the next level. Through the first two games, Diakite leads the Hoos in scoring at 15.5 points per game, more than an eight-point increase from last season. He has demonstrated the ability to score in different ways now as he can blow by his defender, score in the post, or even hit an outside jump shot. It is still early, but there is now chatter that he may hear his name called at the 2020 NBA Draft.
Better than we expected …
As mentioned above, the Cavalier defense has been stout in their first two games this season. While this has become the norm here in Charlottesville, some people actually believe this defense may be better than last year’s group. These people include Hall of Fame and current Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim. Following his team’s defeat at the hands of the Hoos, where Syracuse scored its fewest points in a home game since 1945, Boeheim said, “I thought [Virginia] was better defensively than last year. I know Tony won’t agree with me. But we were able to get by Guy and Jerome a little bit last year. We couldn’t get by these guys. We couldn’t get by the little kid.”
The “little kid” referenced in the quote above is Kihei Clark, whose on-ball defense has been superb this season. His man has not been able to get by him this season. Another member of the backcourt who has also been strong with his on-ball defense is true freshman Casey Morsell. As a recruit, he was known for solid defense but in his first two games at the collegiate level, Morsell has shown he could be much more than just solid. After spending more time in the system and playing more games, Morsell could become the next elite defender to wear the UVA uniform. He has shown flashes of a young Malcolm Brogdon on the defensive end.
Looking at the other side of the ball, the Cavalier frontcourt has shown an ability to score at a high rate. While the experience up front led to expectations of higher production, Mamadi Diakite, Jay Huff, and Braxton Key have combined for 74 points in the first two games. That is over 65 percent of Virginia’s points those games. Even if you combine Syracuse and JMU’s total points, they would actually lose by six to these three. People expected the offense to have to score in different ways this year, but they may not have expected such a high scoring rate from the frontcourt.
Opportunities for improvement …
While it may seem unfair to focus on much here following a pair of double-digit wins, including one on the road in conference, the process of looking at and fixing these areas of the game is part of how Tony Bennett has built and sustained such a successful program.
One obvious area for improvement is the team’s 3-point shooting. The Cavaliers have been ice cold from beyond the arc so far this year. They are shooting an eye-opening – or maybe eye-closing? – 16% from three, making only 8 of 50 attempts. As the schedule gets tougher, the Hoos will have to start shooting better from outside or adjusting their offense to incorporate the shot less. With a much more inexperienced team than in past years, this poor outside shooting could be a result of getting used to big minutes on a bigger stage.
The struggles from three have contributed to Virginia’s backcourt struggling to score in general. As mentioned above, the team has relied primarily on its big men for points. Clark, Morsell, and Kody Stattmann have combined to average just over 15 points per game (or approximately five points per player) so far this year. One factor that contributed to the lack of scoring or subpar shooting from the guards against JMU was JUCO transfer Tomas Woldetensae missing the game due to injury, but in his debut against Syracuse, he was scoreless in 13 minutes of play on 0-4 shooting. The Hoos likely will need more production and help from their backcourt as the season progresses to keep winning.
Another area the Cavaliers can focus on improving is taking care of the ball. They are turning the ball over too much, averaging 13 turnovers a game. This is an increase of four from the season before. The Hoos play games with a lower total number of possessions so they cannot afford to turn the ball over this much as each possession becomes even more valued.
Unanswered questions …
Who is going to be the go-to guy down the stretch in games? After cruising in the second half to two easy wins, the Hoos have not had to answer this question yet. Virginia fans are hoping that this question does not need an answer for a while due to comfortable wins for the Cavaliers, but there will come a time where one is required. The two most probable answers are Diakite and Clark with both players’ experience in big-time situations. Why not bring up the Elite Eight game against Purdue again? Both players showed poise and a clutch gene in that moment and they have the skill to get the job done.
Will the backup point guard be done by committee? Everybody knows Clark is the starting point guard, but when he gets into foul trouble or needs a rest, the Cavaliers will have to rely on somebody else to run the offense. The question has not really been answered as Clark played all 40 minutes against the Orange and only came out for the final 12 against the Dukes. The minutes against JMU were when the game was already out of reach and Bennett had put in reserves and walk-ons. Like the previous answer, Virginia fans may not see a clear answer for a while until games become more competitive.
Leave it to the man
Last year we had three players who could put the team in their backs, individually or collectively. In the first two games this year only Diakite has demonstrated this ability. We need at least two and optimally three to carry the team. I think that Clark could be one, but he has been restrained by playing two teams with big guards and his attempts to get others involved. Key might be an answer in some games, but he is more of a “glue” guy than a score sheet buster. We need Morsell or Stattmann to demonstrate that they can be the man on offense as well as defense.