College Basketball Bracketology: How Do ACC Chances Look?

The calendar has turned to February, so that means bracketology is heating up. Let’s see where things stand.

My bracket is part of the bracket matrix under entry RWX. It is my 5th year doing a bracket and you can see my ranking here. I’m sharing my bracketology here on TheSabre.com.

For my fellow Wahoo fans, for UVA to have a realistic shot at an at-large bid, I think a 6-2 finish and avoiding a bad loss in the ACC Tournament is the most realistic path. If say those two losses were at Miami and at Duke, then that would mean UVA would pick up two more quad 1 wins (at Virginia Tech, Duke) and two more quad 2 wins (Miami, at Louisville). A win at home over Florida State could be quad 2 but FSU is currently out of the NET top 75 so the Seminoles would need to get back up there to qualify.

That would give UVA 4 Q1 wins and 4 Q2 wins. Currently the Hoos have 2 Q3 losses which isn’t great, but many teams have this in the at-large pool. Realistic? Probably not, but not impossible. A win this weekend against Miami would get the ball rolling. A loss doesn’t kill hopes completely yet, but the margin for error is almost totally gone with a loss.

As for the current projections:

• At the top of the bracket, Auburn and Gonzaga are solidly in the overall No. 1 and No. 2 spots. But below those two teams, I see Baylor, Purdue, Kansas, UCLA, and Arizona as the main competitors for the other two No. 1 seeds. Duke and Providence would have to play essentially perfect the rest of the way to enter the conversation. Wisconsin and maybe Kentucky could as well if they do the same.
• Notre Dame enters my bracket as the next to last team in after a big win on the road against Miami this week. That combined with a home win over Kentucky is enough to have them in today. However, Wake Forest and VCU fall out as Wyoming also slid in today after two big wins over fellow MWC at-large teams Colorado State and Boise State.
• The ACC has 3 at-large teams in (Duke, Miami, Notre Dame) and 3 in the first 8 teams out (Wake Forest, UNC, Florida State). The main problem for Wake and UNC is that they have no wins over current at-large teams in my bracket. That will have to change and unfortunately the ACC this year offers few opportunities.

Here’s the bracket as of Friday, Feb. 4:

RWX Bracketology

• Last Four In: Oregon, Notre Dame, Wyoming, Belmont
• First Four Out: Florida, Wake Forest, UNC, Stanford
• Next Four Out: VCU, Florida St., St. Louis, Mississippi St.

Notes on my selection process:

1. I don’t create matchups. My goal is to match the NCAA S Curve and select the right teams. Honestly the bracketing procedures are too tedious.
2. Conference champions in the pre-conference tournament brackets are picked by the team with the highest conference winning % at time of bracket creation. If there is a tie, the team with the highest NET is picked.
3. Brackets will be updated at least on Monday and Friday. As we get closer to the end of the season and during conference tournament weeks, it will be updated every day.