The calendar has turned to February, so that means bracketology is heating up. Let’s see where things stand.
My bracket is part of the bracket matrix under entry RWX. It is my 5th year doing a bracket and you can see my ranking here. I’m sharing my bracketology here on TheSabre.com.
For my fellow Hoo fans, UVA greatly improved its at-large path with the win at Duke on Monday night. There is still plenty of work to do but I have UVA as my ninth team out today (Feb. 11).
The good of Virginia’s resume is 3 wins over likely NCAA Tournament at-large teams with two of them being Quad 1-A wins away from home over Providence on a neutral floor and Duke on the road. That is big and something most at-large teams don’t have. The bad is the 3 Q3 losses (Clemson and Navy at home and JMU on the road). The Navy and JMU losses have no hope to climb out of Q3 and the Clemson loss may also stay there with Clemson’s NET of 83 and the fact that the Tigers are fading.
UVA’s best path to feel secure is most likely to win 5-6 more games, whether that be a 4-2 finish and winning 2 ACC Tournament games (with at least one of those being a Q1 or Q2 win) or a 5-1 finish and avoiding a bad loss at the ACC Tournament. That’s still a tall order, but much more conceivable than it was a week ago. The Hoos’ fortunes may hinge on three games coming up in a row at Virginia Tech, at Miami, and home vs. Duke. If they can avoid a letdown and beath Georgia Tech this weekend at the JPJ and then win 2 of those 3 games, they will be in good shape heading into the final days of the regular season.
As for the current projections:
- More movement on the 1 seed line with Arizona moving on to it and Purdue falling off. Kansas lost at Texas, but that is a Q1 loss, so the Jayhawks didn’t lose their 1 seed yet. Wisconsin has a legitimate claim to a 1 seed, and the Badgers and Baylor are squarely in the mix for one. Providence has the resume to claim one as well although its metrics (NET/KENPOM) are rather pedestrian for a 1 seed.
- This is the time of year where day to day we can see some big reshuffling at the bottom of the bracket and the first few lines of the teams out of the field due to big wins or bad losses. Michigan moves into my field today (Feb. 11) thanks to a big win over Purdue and this knocked Oregon out. Also, with Northern Iowa now in first place in the MVC, Loyola becomes an at-large team which reduces the at-large pool by 1 and resulted in San Diego State moving out of the bracket. Bubble teams will be pulling hard for Loyola to win the MVC Tournament and for one of the 3 MWC at-large worthy teams (Wyoming, CSU, Boise State) to win their conference tournament. Davidson and Murray State will also need to win their conference tournaments to prevent bid snatching.
- The first 16 teams out are full of teams that could move into the at-large picture with strong finishes. Teams like Oregon, UNC, Stanford, Florida, Virginia, Kansas State, Virginia Tech, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, and Rutgers could quickly move into the field with winning streaks or put themselves in position to secure a bid with strong conference tournament runs.
Here’s the bracket as of Friday, Feb. 11:
| Seed | Power | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Gonzaga |
| 1 | 2 | Auburn |
| 1 | 3 | Arizona |
| 1 | 4 | Kansas |
| 2 | 5 | Wisconsin |
| 2 | 6 | Baylor |
| 2 | 7 | Providence |
| 2 | 8 | Purdue |
| 3 | 9 | Kentucky |
| 3 | 10 | Duke |
| 3 | 11 | Villanova |
| 3 | 12 | Texas Tech |
| 4 | 13 | UCLA |
| 4 | 14 | Illinois |
| 4 | 15 | Houston |
| 4 | 16 | Tennessee |
| 5 | 17 | Texas |
| 5 | 18 | Michigan St. |
| 5 | 19 | Marquette |
| 5 | 20 | Ohio St. |
| 6 | 21 | Iowa St. |
| 6 | 22 | UConn |
| 6 | 23 | LSU |
| 6 | 24 | TCU |
| 7 | 25 | Saint Mary's (CA) |
| 7 | 26 | Wyoming |
| 7 | 27 | Alabama |
| 7 | 28 | Xavier |
| 8 | 29 | Seton Hall |
| 8 | 30 | Arkansas |
| 8 | 31 | Boise St. |
| 8 | 32 | Murray St. |
| 9 | 33 | Colorado St. |
| 9 | 34 | Oklahoma |
| 9 | 35 | Southern California |
| 9 | 36 | Indiana |
| 10 | 37 | Creighton |
| 10 | 38 | San Francisco |
| 10 | 39 | Loyola Chicago |
| 10 | 40 | West Virginia |
| 11 | 41 | Iowa |
| 11 | 42 | Notre Dame |
| 11 | 43 | Davidson |
| 11a | 44 | Miami (FL) |
| 11a | 45 | Wake Forest |
| 12a | 46 | Michigan |
| 12a | 47 | BYU |
| 12 | 48 | Iona |
| 12 | 49 | North Texas |
| 12 | 50 | New Mexico St. |
| 13 | 51 | Vermont |
| 13 | 52 | Toledo |
| 13 | 53 | Wagner |
| 13 | 54 | Northern Iowa |
| 14 | 55 | Chattanooga |
| 14 | 56 | South Dakota St. |
| 14 | 57 | Liberty |
| 14 | 58 | Montana St. |
| 15 | 59 | Long Beach St. |
| 15 | 60 | Appalachian St. |
| 15 | 61 | Yale |
| 15 | 62 | Cleveland St. |
| 16 | 63 | Longwood |
| 16 | 64 | Norfolk St. |
| 16a | 65 | UNCW |
| 16a | 66 | Colgate |
| 16a | 67 | Southern |
| 16a | 68 | New Orleans |
- Last Four In: BYU, Michigan, Wake Forest, Miami FL
- First Four Out: Oregon, UNC, San Diego State, Belmont
- Next Four Out: Stanford, Florida, VCU, Memphis
- Next Four Out: Virginia, St. Louis, SMU, Kansas State
- Next Four Out: Virginia Tech, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Rutgers
Notes on my selection process:
- I don’t create matchups. My goal is to match the NCAA S Curve and select the right teams. Honestly the bracketing procedures are too tedious.
- Conference champions in the pre-conference tournament brackets are picked by the team with the highest conference winning % at time of bracket creation. If there is a tie, the team with the highest NET is picked.
- Brackets will be updated at least on Monday and Friday. As we get closer to the end of the season and during conference tournament weeks, it will be updated every day.
It seems like most Virginia fans think the Navy loss is a big negative. It is not as big as you think. Navy is 16-8 and 9-4 in their conference. If they keep playing well, they have a good chance of winning their regular-season championship, winning their conference tourney, and getting a NCAA tourney bid. I am a Navy grad and UVA Dad.
Its a huge loss for a team wanting to get an at-large bid unfortunately. Even if Navy did all those things, their NET rating would still be below 120. Its a very good team that we just could not afford to lose to at home.
For RaieighHOO, et al: Great post. I’m sure it was time-consuming. Agree with “false” and you re Navy. Think they’ll be there at closing time; as well as Uva. The Nav is like other military academies in that they don’t give up. They will make a strong showing before this is all done. I salute this man’s modern, nuclear Navy. The only word in the English language they don’t know is “quit”,
Navy is a quality mid-major program. However, by the definition of NET and quadrants it is a loss that hurts UVA’s resume. As of today, Navy’s NET is 137. The definition of a quad 3 loss at home is a loss to a team with a NET between 76-160. Navy doesn’t have a shot to see its NET get to 76 and it is much more possible it goes above 160 with any more bad losses in the Patriot league. With that said, the loss to JMU was worse and the Navy loss if isolated wouldn’t have had a huge impact but it is 1 of 3 and the cumulative impact hurts UVA’s chances.
Great article. I have a question. Doesn’t the NCAA more heavily weigh recent performance in their process? If so, is that something you’re able to account for in your rankings?