College Basketball Bracketology: ACC Bubble Hopefuls Have Work To Do

The calendar has reached the middle of February, so that means bracketology is heating up. Let’s see where things stand.

My bracket is part of the bracket matrix under entry RWX. It is my 5th year doing a bracket and you can see my ranking here. I’m sharing my bracketology here on TheSabre.com.

For my fellow UVA fans, the Hoos have themselves in a position to be very much in the hunt with a win over Duke this week. A win would give them 4 Q1 wins and 4 Q2 wins, which would be the best collection of any of the teams on the bubble. However, the 3 Q3 losses still hurt. I personally think, if they complete the sweep of Duke and avoid any bad losses the rest of the way (Q3+) that could be enough at the end of the day.

A win over Duke on Wednesday could be enough for the Wahoos to be in my next mock bracket or at least right there, but they would still have work to do to keep the spot. A loss to Duke would make the trek harder, but they could still make it with a quality win in the ACC Tournament, most likely on Thursday in the quarterfinals. But that would be a precarious spot and very dependent on what happens across the country.

In terms of the other projections:

  • The NCAA released its top 16 on Saturday morning and I had 15 of the top 16 teams correct and all 4 No. 1 seeds. It did offer a little clarity to how the committee views teams from 5-15, which was helpful. On Monday, I have the same 4 No. 1 seeds as Friday and as the committee had on Saturday. But Auburn did flip with Arizona moving from No. 2 on my S Curve to No. 3.
  • The middle of the bracket from say USC at No. 18 on my S Curve down to the 8/9 seed line is pretty close and there could be lots of movement there over the coming days.
  • The bottom of the bracket remains very competitive and fluid. On Monday, I moved Indiana out of the bracket despite not playing and moved San Diego State back in. Several teams just out of the bracket had big wins this weekend, (Florida over Auburn, SMU completing a season sweep of Memphis, UNC winning @ Virginia Tech, Virginia winning @ Miami, South Carolina beating LSU) and it has made things tighter on the bubble. The next two weeks should be very interesting. From here forward, I will update the bracket more than twice a week.
  • I still have 4 teams from the ACC in the current bracket (Duke a 2 seed, Notre Dame a 9 seed, Miami and Wake Forest 10 seeds). UNC is my 6th team out, UVA my 7th team out, and Virginia Tech my 15th team out. Wake Forest really helped itself with a win over Notre Dame this past weekend, giving them a win over an at-large quality team. The Deacs just need to avoid bad losses and they will have little to worry about and they could probably even weather a bad loss and still be in fine shape. UNC reversed its momentum picking up a much-needed Q1 win at Virginia Tech this weekend. The Heels’ early season win over Michigan does give them a win over an at-large worthy team as well, but the overall profile still is not good enough for me yet. If they win their next 3, they will likely be right there even with a loss at Duke to end the season. The Hokies’ chances are growing dimmer after missing a chance at a Q2 win vs UNC this weekend. They pretty much have to win out and likely pick up at least one quality win at the ACC Tournament to have any shot and that might not be enough. The lack of Q1 wins and wins over likely at-large teams is dooming them despite a decent outlook with NET and KenPom.

Here’s the bracket as of Monday, Feb. 21:

SeedPowerTeam
11Gonzaga
12Arizona
13Auburn
14Kansas
25Baylor
26Kentucky
27Purdue
28Duke
39Texas Tech
310Villanova
311Illinois
312Wisconsin
413UCLA
414Tennessee
415Providence
416UConn
517Texas
518Southern California
519Ohio St.
520Saint Mary's (CA)
621Houston
622Michigan St.
623Alabama
624Iowa St.
725LSU
726Marquette
727Arkansas
728Xavier
829Murray St.
830Wyoming
831Colorado St.
832TCU
933Boise St.
934Creighton
935Seton Hall
936Notre Dame
1037Miami (FL)
1038Iowa
1039Wake Forest
1040Davidson
1141San Francisco
1142Rutgers
1143Michigan
11b44San Diego St.
11b45BYU
12a46Memphis
12a47VCU
1248North Texas
1249Iona
1250South Dakota St.
1351Chattanooga
1352Vermont
1353Toledo
1354Wagner
1455UNI
1456Princeton
1457Seattle U
1458Texas St.
1559Montana St.
1560Long Beach St.
1561Norfolk St.
1562Jacksonville St.
1663Longwood
1664Cleveland St.
16a65UNCW
16a66Colgate
16a67Texas Southern
16a68New Orleans

  • Last Four In: VCU, Memphis, BYU, San Diego St.
  • First Four Out: Indiana, St. Bonaventure, Florida, SMU
  • Next Four Out: Loyola Chicago, UNC, Virginia, Oregon
  • Next Four Out: Kansas St., Belmont, Oklahoma, WVU
  • Next Four Out: South Carolina, Mississippi St., Virginia Tech, Dayton

Notes on my selection process:

  1. I don’t create matchups. My goal is to match the NCAA S Curve and select the right teams. Honestly the bracketing procedures are too tedious.
  2. Conference champions in the pre-conference tournament brackets are picked by the team with the highest conference winning % at time of bracket creation. If there is a tie, the team with the highest NET is picked.
  3. Brackets will be updated at least on Monday and Friday. As we get closer to the end of the season and during conference tournament weeks, it will be updated every day.