College basketball season is winding down so that means bracketology is heating up. Let’s see where things stand.
My bracket is part of the bracket matrix under entry RWX. It is my 5th year doing a bracket and you can see my ranking here. I’m sharing my bracketology here on TheSabre.com.
Heading into the conference tournaments, Gonzaga maybe the only team locked into a 1 seed. If Arizona avoids a Q3+ loss at the PAC-12 Tournament, the Wildcats are probably good for a 1 seed too. I think the other two 1 seeds will come down to Baylor/Kansas and Auburn/Kentucky and how they do in their respective conference tournaments. I don’t think Duke can get a 1 seed unless alot of these teams suffered early bad losses in their tournaments. Villanova would have a better shot than Duke most likely to sneak into the last 1 seed if there is chaos.
It was actually a weekend where most of the teams at the bottom of the bracket won and many of the teams in the first 8 to 12 out spots lost. This has created a bit of a separation and will make it harder for the teams just to win their way in. Obviously, no one knows for sure what the committee S curve would look like today, but in my bracket I feel the top 39 teams are pretty safe at the moment. I would say the bottom 8 at-large teams (Michigan, Memphis, Wyoming, Wake Forest, Notre Dame, Xavier, Rutgers, and Indiana) COULD still conceivably lose their spot in the actual bracket pending on where the committee would have them now and how they fare this week.
Let’s look at their conference tournament games:
- Michigan vs. Indiana. Fellow bubblers will square off. Is it a winner take all? Maybe, but I think Michigan could lose this game and still be ok, although other bracketologists may disagree. I think it MAY be a must win for Indiana, but it wouldn’t be a bad loss, so at worst their resume stays unchanged. The winner should certainly be in real good shape, the loser sweating.
- Memphis vs. UCF/USF. This is where being in a smaller conference hurts. While the power 5 bubble teams often have quality opponents in their tournament games, that isn’t always the case in the smaller leagues. UCF would be a Q2 game so a loss would not be horrible. USF, though, would be a Q4 loss. Memphis should pull for UCF so it wouldn’t have to worry about that. The Tigers are fine if they avoid a bad loss, even if they did pick up one, they may be fine, but better to not leave to chance.
- Wake Forest vs. BC/Pittsburgh. Wake Forest’s second round game will be a Q3 game. With Wake’s overall mediocre profile of 1 Q1 win, 4 Q2 wins, and a Q3 loss, a loss here may knock it out of the picture. A win here would probably mean the Deacs are ok, but a win over Miami on Thursday would likely seal the deal.
- Notre Dame vs. Virginia Tech/Clemson/NC State. Notre Dame is living off its win over Kentucky at home in December. The Irish’s overall resume is pretty lame – 2 Q1 wins, 2 Q2 wins, 1 Q3 loss, 5-7 vs Q1, NET of 50. Their metrics are OK – SOR of 35, KenPom of 47. Bottom line they are not safe enough to mail in this game. VT would be a Q1 game, Clemson a Q2 game, NCSU a Q3 game. Notre Dame may need to win this one to keep a spot, pending on what else happens across the country.
- Xavier vs. Butler. This is a dangerous game. Xavier has been in a free-fall lately salvaged to a degree with a season-ending win over winless Georgetown. Despite the late season slide, the Musketeers still have 5 Q1 wins, 4 Q2 wins, and only one bad loss (1 Q3). However, a loss here would be a Q3 at the wrong time and would put their position in a bit of doubt. The committee officially doesn’t factor in how a team finishes, but we would be fools to think a subjective element doesn’t still exist that factors in program status, coach, how you’re playing down the stretch, and your last game performance. Xavier is 2-7 down the stretch and a loss to a Q3 opponent to finish 2-8 will make Selection Sunday very nerve wracking for the Musketeers.
- Rutgers vs. Iowa/Northwestern/Nebraska. Rutgers may be ok as long as it doesn’t lose to Nebraska, which would be a Q3 loss. Still if you are the next to last team in, better to win and not leave it to chance.
- Wyoming vs UNLV. Wyoming is probably fine and thankfully for the Cowboys this is a Q2 game so it wouldn’t sink them with a loss. They are probably high enough up the seed line to be ok, but the resume is not overwhelming and a lackluster finish has put them in a bit more precarious position.
Beyond these bubble games, I could still see the last spot in the field either way come down between Indiana and BYU. Today, I see Indiana’s resume slightly better. The bad thing for BYU is that its season is over. Also, we must watch the A-10 tournament because I would personally take the field vs. Davidson, which would mean an at-large spot lost.
Teams like Florida, VCU, SMU, Oklahoma, Dayton, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Texas A&M, Oregon, and St. Bonaventure need big runs in the conference tournaments to get in the picture.
Tonight’s Bubble Impacting Games: No major bubble games Tuesday. They will start to crank up Wednesday. Here is my full bracket for March 8:
| Seed | Power | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Gonzaga |
| 1 | 2 | Baylor |
| 1 | 3 | Arizona |
| 1 | 4 | Auburn |
| 2 | 5 | Kansas |
| 2 | 6 | Duke |
| 2 | 7 | Kentucky |
| 2 | 8 | Villanova |
| 3 | 9 | Tennessee |
| 3 | 10 | Wisconsin |
| 3 | 11 | Purdue |
| 3 | 12 | Texas Tech |
| 4 | 13 | Providence |
| 4 | 14 | UCLA |
| 4 | 15 | Illinois |
| 4 | 16 | Arkansas |
| 5 | 17 | UConn |
| 5 | 18 | Saint Mary's (CA) |
| 5 | 19 | Texas |
| 5 | 20 | Alabama |
| 6 | 21 | Houston |
| 6 | 22 | Colorado St. |
| 6 | 23 | LSU |
| 6 | 24 | Southern California |
| 7 | 25 | Ohio St. |
| 7 | 26 | Michigan St. |
| 7 | 27 | Iowa St. |
| 7 | 28 | Iowa |
| 8 | 29 | Murray St. |
| 8 | 30 | Seton Hall |
| 8 | 31 | Marquette |
| 8 | 32 | TCU |
| 9 | 33 | Boise St. |
| 9 | 34 | San Diego St. |
| 9 | 35 | Miami (FL) |
| 9 | 36 | North Carolina |
| 10 | 37 | San Francisco |
| 10 | 38 | Davidson |
| 10 | 39 | Creighton |
| 10 | 40 | Michigan |
| 11 | 41 | Memphis |
| 11 | 42 | Wyoming |
| 11 | 43 | Loyola Chicago |
| 11 | 44 | Notre Dame |
| 12a | 45 | Wake Forest |
| 12b | 46 | Xavier |
| 12b | 47 | Rutgers |
| 12a | 48 | Indiana |
| 12 | 49 | North Texas |
| 12 | 50 | South Dakota St. |
| 13 | 51 | Iona |
| 13 | 52 | Chattanooga |
| 13 | 53 | Toledo |
| 13 | 54 | Vermont |
| 14 | 55 | Princeton |
| 14 | 56 | Stephen F Austin |
| 14 | 57 | Delaware |
| 14 | 58 | Montana St. |
| 15 | 59 | Longwood |
| 15 | 60 | Long Beach St. |
| 15 | 61 | Geogia St. |
| 15 | 62 | Jacksonville St. |
| 16 | 63 | Colgate |
| 16 | 64 | Norfolk St. |
| 16a | 65 | Wright St. |
| 16a | 66 | Nicholls |
| 16a | 67 | Bryant |
| 16a | 68 | Alcorn St. |
- Last Four In: Indiana, Rutgers, Xavier, Wake Forest
- First Four Out: BYU, Florida, VCU, SMU
- Next Four Out: Oklahoma, Dayton, Virginia, Virginia Tech
- Next Four Out: Texas A&M, Oregon, St. Bonaventure, Colorado
- Next Four Out: Belmont, UAB, St. Louis, Mississippi St.
Notes on my selection process:
- I don’t create matchups. My goal is to match the NCAA S Curve and select the right teams. Honestly the bracketing procedures are too tedious.
- Conference champions in the pre-conference tournament brackets are picked by the team with the highest conference winning % at time of bracket creation. If there is a tie, the team with the highest NET is picked.
- Brackets will be updated at least on Monday and Friday. As we get closer to the end of the season and during conference tournament weeks, it will be updated every day.
