Football Saturdays officially have vacated Charlottesville for the season after last week’s loss to Miami, but Virginia still faces two more opponents before the curtains close on the 2016 season and these picks. A trip to Atlanta comes first in the Tech-Tech finale.
What can UVA expect from Georgia Tech? Lots of runs and chop blocks. A potentially opportunistic defense. Wind.
In other words, this shapes up like a test of mental toughness. Will the Hoos, well out of bowl contention and mired in a five-game losing streak, be up to the challenge? What happens when GT inevitably busts through with a big run? What about when the Cavaliers commit a turnover (with the streak at 40 straight games, that seems likely)?
The answers here are not clear. The coaches and players are saying all the right things about building momentum for the long-term goals for the program. They’re focused on one week at a time. They have a well-respected leader returning under center – Matt Johns is getting the start this week at quarterback.
Still, the turn-around under Bronco Mendenhall has not been swift. The inconsistency and mental breakdowns from years prior remain tough obstacles. If the Hoos are going to skip their second two-win campaign in the past four seasons, they’ll need to find something that’s gone missing since mid-October to do it.
The Picks
Virginia can win if … the offense finds a spark. Most Hoos hope that Matt Johns provides some sort of late-season elixir for an offense that has sputtered for the past four weeks. After ripping off three straight games with at least 30 points, the offense slid backward and produced 14-25-20-14 in the past four weeks. With the Jackets averaging 27.5 points per game, the Cavaliers probably need to be in the neighborhood of 30 to add this one to the win column.
Virginia can lose if … it can’t protect the edge. Georgia Tech whipped Virginia Tech up the gut last week in its win in Blacksburg, but UVA seems better equipped to handle the A gaps with Donte Wilkins and Micah Kiser roaming around there. The issue may be the perimeter where the second phase of the triple option or just pure toss sweeps will attack. Against UNC and Miami in recent weeks, the Hoos have struggled to stop edge runs and losses followed.
And the winner is …
Sabre Editor Kris Wright: If you think there is one more win in the tank, which Tech do you pick? The Hoos have had a lot more recent success against Paul Johnson’s team than the one from Blacksburg. The matchup here isn’t as daunting as some on the schedule, but the Cavaliers haven’t been great against the run this season – they rank 73rd nationally in rush defense coming into this game. Still, I think there’s a swan song storyline building here for Matt Johns and I think it pays off with a win this week. VIRGINIA 29, GEORGIA TECH 27. Season to date: 6-4.
Sabre Associate Editor Chris Horne: I thought Miami was dominant on both sides of the ball against Virginia, which turned in one of its worst tackling performances of the season last Saturday. Certainly, this is not a good thing going in against run-heavy Georgia Tech, which is confident coming off a win at Virginia Tech. I do think Matt Johns will provide a spark to the Cavalier offense and suspect this game will be close, but there are too many variables going against the Hoos to pick a win. I’ll go with the Yellow Jackets. GEORGIA TECH 38, VIRGINIA 35. Season to date: 6-4.
Sabre analyst Greg Waters: The good news about Matt Johns being inserted at QB is it will hopefully bring some stability back to the pocket and should open up the underneath and middle of the field passing routes, a place that for the last several weeks defenses have simply not needed to defend. The Jackets enter after a big win on the road against the Hokies, but they also lost to UNC by seven more than Virginia did. Tech has won the games it should have won and lost the ones it should have lost with the exception of the game in Blacksburg. But if Bronco Mendenhall is as good as defending the triple-option as reported, the Hoos may have a chance and GT is due for a banana peel game after the upset last week. My record stinks so I’ll take the Hoos. VIRGINIA 31, GEORGIA TECH 29. Season to date: 4-6.
Sabre analyst Ahmad Hawkins (listen to The Ball Hawk Show Podcast here): The Matt Johns era will end like your favorite sports movie. The Hoos will be efficient on offense and you will see players selling out for the 5th year senior QB. On defense, the Wahoos will get back on track and play assignment football, while looking to stuff the Yellow Jackets physical running attack. VIRGINIA 24, GEORGIA TECH 21. Season to date: 4-6.
Sabre meteorologist BadgerHoo: Wind favors the Jackets ground game and stymies Matt Johns’ air attack. GEORGIA TECH 31, VIRGINIA 14. Season to date: 5-5.
The Poll
What about you? Who wins?
[yop_poll id=”11″]
