Three List Game Preview – Virginia Football Vs. William & Mary

The Virginia football team faces William & Mary in its season opener.
Jake Fieler and the Hoos hope to open the season with a win. ~ Kris Wright

Things didn’t go as planned or hoped for Bronco Mendenhall in his debut season with the Virginia football team. After 99 wins and 11 winning seasons at BYU, UVA’s new coach never had experienced a losing season in his career much less a two-win campaign.

So when the Hoos finished 2-10 in his first season in Charlottesville, Mendenhall said the rebuilding process was harder than he expected and he recalibrated the offseason outline to try to push the Hoos back toward success. The biggest theme through the months from December to August centered on playing more football and putting the players in more football situations. The theory there, of course, being that the thing a generally young and overturning roster needed most was to accelerate the learning process.

That plan incorporated both short-term and long-term context, but looking at things solely through the lens of the 2017 season meant that the roster also needed some immediate solutions. Mendenhall picked up four key players in that sense. The defense retained All-Americans Micah Kiser and Quin Blanding, while the offense added two ‘recruits’ in graduate transfer offensive linemen Brandon Pertile and John Montelus. That quartet provides some much needed experienced and roster depth at spots critical to a team’s success.

Will all of that pay off with more wins in 2017? That answer will unfold over the next three months. One thing that seems necessary, however, is for the Cavaliers to get off to a better start than a year ago. They dropped the season opener at Scott Stadium against Football Championship Subdivision foe Richmond and proceeded to go in September. That included road losses at Oregon and UConn, however, and this year’s schedule features three straight Scott Stadium instead. Any hopes of improving on the 2-10 mark likely hinge on winning at home because road tilts at Louisville, North Carolina, and Miami look more daunting on paper than William & Mary, Indiana, and Connecticut at home.

With that as the backdrop, the first challenge comes this Saturday against W&M. The Tribe comes to town with their own questions, mainly who will be the starting quarterback. They held a five-way competition for much of training camp and three players – Tommy McKee, Brandon Battle, and Shon Mitchell – entered game week still in the mix. The visitors also have a new offensive coordinator in DJ Mangas, the running backs coach that was promoted in May as the second youngest OC in Division I football (FBS and FCS).

While that will add to the degree of difficulty in terms of FCS upset hopes, it probably doesn’t automatically put up an L for the visitors from the coast. Jimmye Laycock’s teams usually have come prepared and focused in previous trips to Scott Stadium, including the two of the last three meetings when the Tribe won 26-14 in 2009 and lost by a close 35-29 score in 2015.

Plus, as Mendenhall pointed out this week, openers always seem to have a little different feel to them as teams figure out what things look like against opponents instead of in practice. UVA, of course, hopes for a score more like the 2011 meeting when it romped 40-3.

“In terms of how you play, especially in week one, there is always surprises,” Mendenhall said. “No matter how much preparation, there could be personnel surprises, someone might perform as a higher level or lower level than expected. There could be depth surprises where some positions you think you’re going to be deep, an injury or two all of a sudden you’re not so deep. There possibly might be chemistry and confidence issues that you see that don’t manifest until you actually play a game, or different settings within a game.

I think that’s why game one, there’s so much anticipation and so much value, is simply because the feedback you get actually adds probably the most clear reference point that you’re starting from for that year. Up until then, until you play as many scrimmages as you do, live work against each other, I would love to say I’ve been able to determine that. We’ve played more football against each other than any camp that I’ve been a part of.

Still with that there’s question marks. We’ve just tried to eliminate as many as possible while accelerating the growth of our program.”

Virginia Football Essentials

Three Big Trends

  1. Too many turnovers. Virginia has committed at least one turnover in 42 straight games, the longest streak at the FBS level. To make that stat worse, UVA isn’t forcing turnovers either. The Hoos have finished with a positive turnover margin in a season only once since 2008. That’s the sort of things that loses games against any opponent. UVA had 7 turnovers in its 2009 loss to William & Mary – sorry about that reminder – for example. The Tribe, by the way, have created 82 turnovers since the start of the 2013 season with a +23 turnover margin.
  2. Offensive scoring. UVA scored 26 or more points in four of the first six games last season, but did not reach that mark again in the final six games. The Hoos averaged 22.5 points per game last season (117th nationally), the sixth time in the last nine seasons that the team has averaged 23.2 points or fewer.
  3. Run defense. One of the defense’s big points of emphasis this offseason has been to improve the run defense. In the final four games last season, the D did a good job against run-heavy option team Georgia Tech (199 yards), but gave up 222 or more rushing yards in the other three games against Wake Forest (226), Miami (222), and Virginia Tech (289). UVA ranked 78th nationally (190 yards per game) in run defense in 2016.

Three Big Questions

  1. How will the offensive line play? The Cavaliers will start new faces at all five O-Line spots Saturday; only right guard R.J. Proctor made a spot start at his position last season. Left to right, Dillon Reinkensmeyer, John Montelus, Jake Fieler, Proctor and Brandon Pertile are the five expected starters. Those five players have seven career starts between them (Pertile 4 in 2013, Fieler 2 in 2016, and Proctor 1 in 2016). There is good size across the group (316 pounds average), but how they play in the opener will be interesting to watch.
  2. Who emerges as a skill position threat? Taquan Mizzell accounted for 1,344 yards (32% of team’s yards) and 7 touchdowns (19% of 37 team TDs) last season. Plus, the team’s leading scorer Albert Reid (44 points) is now a grad assistant for the team too. That’s a lot of production to replace. Running back Jordan Ellis, receiver Andre Levrone, and others have received praise in the offseason but who will step up on game day to provide the offensive punch this season?
  3. Is the kicking game better? Virginia made only five field goals last season, tied for the third fewest at the FBS level in 2016. The Cavaliers converted only 5 of 10 attempts, the 50% rate also falling in the bottom five of the nation. There will be a new kicker this year – freshman A.J. Mejia topped the depth chart, but there’s an ongoing competition there – so the Hoos hope the production changes too.

Three Big Foes

  1. Receiver/Returner DeVonte Dedmon. The 5-10” senior comes into this game with 110 career receptions for 1,421 yards and 14 touchdowns. Plus, he’s already had a big game in Scott Stadium with seven catches for 80 yards and two touchdowns in the 2015 contest. The two-time All-CAA selection is the 2015 CAA Special Teams Player of the Year as well; he’s put up 1,263 kickoff return yards in his career.
  2. Defensive Tackle Isaiah Stephens. The 6’2”, 310-pound senior has logged 26 career starts and produced 115 career tackles. He’ll have the experience edge in the middle across from UVA center Jake Fieler or true freshman backup Tyler Fannin. If he disrupts the running game or pushes the pocket into Kurt Benkert’s lap, that could cause rhythm issues for an offense hoping to establish itself in the opener.
  3. Cornerback Aaron Swinton. Another senior on the defense, he tied for third in the CAA last season with 1.09 pass breakups per game. The team captain helped W&M lead the FCS in pass defense last season at 154.2 yards allowed. The Tribe gave up just seven passing touchdowns in all of 2016. Plus, since the start of the 2007 season (118 games), they’ve allowed more than 300 passing yards just seven times (0 times against FBS teams). Will UVA be able to find its footing with some big receivers against the 5’9” Swinton and the W&M defense?

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