Keys & Picks – Virginia Football At North Carolina

The Virginia football team is 4-1 on the season.
Bryce Hall and the UVA defense have allowed 21.2 points per game this season. ~ Mike Ingalls

For Virginia sophomore corner Bryce Hall, a tale of two Dukes paints a clear picture of his development. The Duke game in 2016 was more flashy, but the Duke game in 2017 showed off his growing consistency.

Hall smothered his assignment all afternoon last Saturday. He loomed over the line of scrimmage in press coverage and repeatedly prevented clean releases for the receivers. He re-routed, he steered, and he controlled his territory. The Blue Devils simply couldn’t shake him.

Hall also played a pivotal role in the tone-setting play of the day. On Duke’s first drive of the game, he closed in with a well-timed hit that dislodged a potential reception and popped the ball into the air. Safety Quin Blanding ran under it and took the football to the end zone for a 7-0 lead. By the time the day ended with a UVA victory, the defense had allowed only 255 yards of offense all day long.

So while Hall’s two interceptions against the Blue Devils in 2016 proved highlight worthy, his play to play, game to game, week to week consistency has played a big role in the Hoos’ 4-1 start this season. He’s posted 21 tackles this season to nearly match 25 stops from all of 2016 and logged two passes defended as well. Of course, if you’re playing corner the way he did much of the game Saturday against Duke, there aren’t going to be whole lot of passes coming that way.

Virginia coach Bronco Mendenhall said that Hall’s progression is emblematic of the team’s growth overall.

“Bryce is playing well, and our secondary is playing well,” Mendenhall said. “The game on Saturday [and this season, there are] very few balls are being caught downfield against us. I think Bryce has given up one, and I think maybe Juan [Thornhill] has given up one on the season. So any balls that are being caught right now are being contested, and they’re usually underneath. And the number of breakups is probably just reflective of number of attempts. He’s not defending many passes because his coverage is tight. He’s playing more press than what he did a year ago, which doesn’t encourage throws to his side and he’s performing well. Just like any of the players defensively, a year of experience has really aided their development, and I think that’s in particular and specific to Bryce also.”

Hall and the Hoos now get a shot at one team that has caused problems for Virginia’s defenses for years. North Carolina has rattled off seven straight wins in this series, while scoring at least 26 points in all of the victories. The Tar Heels, in fact, have averaged 34.7 points per game during this winning streak against the Cavaliers.

So far this season, UVA has bottled up opposing offenses. The Hoos have allowed 21.2 points per game this season, good enough for 39th nationally. The team has allowed more than 24 points – the defense’s stated goal for a game – only once, which came in the season’s only loss. Other than than that 34-17 setback against Indiana, the Cavaliers have held everyone else to 23 points or less.

Can the Wahoos keep that up against the Heels?

Kris’ Keys To Winning

1. More production from the pass rush. Virginia’s defense pestered Duke on Saturday, but the Hoos still aren’t getting the disruption they’d like. “I wasn’t pleased – I wasn’t especially happy with our pass rush on Saturday. For the amount of times that we had pressure called and one-on-one matchups versus the times where we knew the ball was going to be thrown,” Coach Mendenhall said. UVA ranks 32nd nationally (tie) with 14 sacks and 80th nationally (tie) with seven turnovers gained this season. The Cavaliers could turn that around this week and if they do, another win may follow. The Tar Heels rank 85th nationally (tie) with 13 sacks allowed and 83rd nationally (tie) with 10 turnovers lost.

2. Keep up the second half advantage. Virginia has scored touchdowns in four out of five games on its first drive of the second half, while opponents have managed just one field goal on their first second half drives. Overall, UVA has outscored its opponents 77-61 after halftime this season, a number skewed a bit by two meaningless late touchdowns by UConn (2:06 to go, trailing 38-12) and Boise State (1:03 to go, trailing 42-16) in a pair of lopsided Hoo wins. Controlling the game after intermission is a good formula for additional wins.

3. Explosive plays. Part of UVA’s surge in recent weeks has been the offense’s ability to create big plays, though that slipped last week against Duke. The Hoos created 16 plays of 20+ yards against UConn and Boise State, but only one against the Blue Devils. They’ve posted 22 on the season, which ranks 90th nationally (tie). Meanwhile, North Carolina’s defense is vulnerable to big plays. The Tar Heels rank 109th nationally (tied) with 32 plays allowed of 20+ yards. The Cavaliers look strong when they’re connecting on explosive plays and that could be a factor in this one.

The Picks

Sabre Editor Kris Wright: The Hoos have checked off a lot of “righting the ship” boxes over the first 17 games of Bronco Mendenhall’s tenure. Got a road win. Stopped the turnover streak. Won three games in a row. Three others that need to go: beat UNC, beat Virginia Tech, and make a bowl game. (And then do it consistently in terms of the big picture!) This is a perfect week to get one of those done with a reeling UNC team at 1-5 and full of injuries. I think the Hoos get it done. Many UVA fans would love a score of a billion to zero in light of the NCAA’s decision on the classes scandal, but it will be closer than that. VIRGINIA 38, NORTH CAROLINA 17. Season to date: 3-2.

Sabre Associate Editor Chris Horne: Saturday features a tale of two teams headed in different directions. Virginia has won three straight and seems to be riding high with confidence. Meanwhile, a banged up UNC squad has lost three straight, including two consecutive defeats of more than 20 points. If the Cavalier players can keep their heads on straight and continue the consistent quality play they have exhibited the past three weeks, I think they leave Chapel Hill with a win. Any let up in focus could result in a close game, perhaps even a loss, but I think Virginia has found its formula for success and will stick to it. The NCAA won’t be able to save the Tar Heels from the Cavaliers on Saturday. VIRGINIA 31, NORTH CAROLINA 10. Season to date: 3-2.