Keys & Picks – Virginia Football Vs. Boston College

The Virginia football team is 5-1 on the season.
Doni Dowling celebrated a touchdown in UVA’s last home game with a dive. ~ Mike Ingalls

With the popularity of TheSabre.com’s message boards, many observers turn to us to capture the general mood of the Virginia fan base. As the football team has rattled off wins this season, I’ve described that mood as cautiously optimistic.

I think Cavalier fans like what they’re seeing, noticing the improvement, and enjoying the outcomes, but they’re also waiting to make sure that the growth is real. Hoo fans have seen tailspins before after all. The easiest way to get rid of the cautious part, though? Reaching bowl eligibility.

Virginia enters this week’s Homecomings game with Boston College at 5-1 and one win shy of bowl eligibility. Reaching that plateau is a tangible result that proves this year’s team turned things around after 2016’s frustrating finish.

Reporters and observers are waiting to see if the Cavaliers’ four-game surge, a possible postseason berth, and growing optimism energizes attendance. The first four home games have yet to crack 40,000: 38,828 (W&M), 38,993 (Indiana), 33,056 (Connecticut), and 38,638 (Duke). I think Saturday’s game with Boston College will surpass the 40K barrier as a perfect fall weather day is on tap during Homecomings weekend.

Still, I’ve said many times on the message boards and elsewhere that a significant surge in attendance will require more than winning games within a single season. I think it will take at least back-to-back bowl appearances to start reeling people back into Scott Stadium on a regular basis. Wahoo fans saw bowl seasons in 2007 and 2011 immediately fall back into long seasons with too few wins after all.

UVA coach Bronco Mendenhall seemed to have a grasp on the fan growth question this week.

“You know, I think it’s one of the metrics. It is important, and I think it’s important for a number of reasons. I think it’s important as clarity that people in the community and the state are identifying with the way the program is run, as well as the result,” Mendenhall said. “So I think fans could come for the philosophical approach or fans can come for the winning or they can come for both. I think right now, there’s intrigue on the fans’ part and there’s hopeful and the excitement of, is this real and what does this look like and can this be. And we would welcome that support, but again, one of our guiding principles is earning the support.”

“So I think as one seat at a time starts filling up and then two and three and sections, that’s just going to be earned with consistency and time,” he continued. “I think it’s still a little too early and not quite enough consistency to have generated the excitement that I’m hopeful for. But again, I’m framing it in relation to the beginning and not the end. So I think it’s about where, just quite frankly, where the brutal facts say it is, and with each win, hopefully we’ll see attendance increase.”

What will Hoos at Scott Stadium need to watch for on Saturday against BC? Let’s take a look.

Kris’ Keys To Winning

1. Win first down on defense. Boston College’s plan is fairly simple: run the football and build the rest around that. The Eagles want to be physical, wear you down over time with the run, and hit some play-action calls. A lot of that strategy starts with running the football successfully on first down. Boston College ranks ninth in the nation for first down running plays with 162 vs. just 72 pass attempts (tied for 75th). The Eagles have posted 743 yards on those carries, good enough for 27th in the nation, at 4.59 yards per carry. On the flipside, much of Virginia’s defensive strategy has revolved around stopping the run and then taking advantage of favorable third down situations (opponents have converted just 16% of third down chances of six yards or more). The Hoos have allowed 442 rushing yards on first down this season (44th nationally) at 4.25 yards per carry. Whoever wins that first down stalemate on Saturday could create a big advantage on later downs because BC ranks 102nd (33.6%) in third down conversions, while UVA’s D ranks seventh in third down defense (26.8%).

2. Get the passing game on track. Through the first four games, the Hoos posted 1,249 passing yards (312 yards per game) on 66% passing. In the last two outings, UVA tallied just 431 passing yards on 58% passing. The rushing attack has improved over the last four games, but ultimately Virginia is a passing-based offense with 248 passing attempts vs. 213 runs. Some of those passes are quick-hitters to the flats, of course, with similar goals to run calls, but for the Hoos’ offense to look its best, the passing game must be sharper. That will be a challenge against BC. The Eagles rank 12th nationally in pass efficiency defense (106.82 pass efficiency rate allowed) and they’re tied for 13th nationally with nine interceptions. Boston College also has 14 sacks on the season. End Harold Landry led the nation a year ago with 16.5 sacks so he can wreck the offense if not accounted for by the Cavaliers.

3. Don’t get swamped with field position issues. Boston College ranks 38th in special teams efficiency (+.05), while Virginia sits 109th (-.08). The Eagles rank in the top 20 nationally in net starting field position (15th), offensive average starting field position (18th), and defensive average starting field position (19th). The Hoos are 85th, 100th, and 54th respectively in those categories. Cavalier coach Bronco Mendenhall wasn’t pleased with the play on special teams at North Carolina even though UVA came through with the win, saying “three of the four phases I did not like.” He also said that field position this season is “not quite as strong as what I would like it to be.” Against a BC team that features a dangerous returner in Michael Walker but needs to piece together touchdown drives (14 of 19 have taken 5+ plays), it’s important to avoid giving short fields to the Boston College offense.

The Picks

Sabre Editor Kris Wright: The Virginia football experience has been bowl free since 2011 so naturally when this year’s team reached 5-1 with last week’s win, fan interest immediately shifted to bowl dreams mode. Belk or Pinstripe or Orange? Washington DC or Orlando or Detroit? Can those daydreams become reality this week? Boston College represents a tough, physical team that has played well on the road, including last week’s win at Louisville. So I don’t think this will be easy. However, I do like how the styles and battles in certain areas favor UVA on paper. I think the bowl question goes from dreams to reality this week. VIRGINIA 27, BOSTON COLLEGE 16. Season to date: 4-2.

Sabre Associate Editor Chris Horne: It will be interesting to see how this Virginia Cavalier team handles success … specifically, being one game away from being bowl eligible. I think the Hoos come out focused and excited to cross this goal off the 2017 season checklist. Given the way they have played on the road and the big victory over Louisville last weekend, I expect Boston College to play well. Ultimately, though, I think Virginia’s defense shuts down BC, the offense gets going, and the Hoos roll to bowl eligibility. VIRGINIA 35, BOSTON COLLEGE 10. Season to date: 4-2.