Keys & Picks – Virginia Football At Pittsburgh

The Virginia football is 2-0 on the road this season.
Quin Blanding makes a tackle against Boston College – he’s just four stops away from becoming Virginia’s all-time leader in that category. ~ Mike Ingalls

The Virginia football team had momentum rolling with four straight wins, growing confidence, and bowl talk creeping up with five wins in the books. Then Boston College happened. The Hoos struggled through a 41-10 loss.

Overshadowed by that disappointing defeat, Virginia safety Quin Blanding moved into a second place tie on the all-time tackles list in program history. With 13 stops against the Eagles, he tied Charles McDaniel on the all-time list with 432 career stops. He now needs just four tackles to pass Jamie Sharper as the all-time leading tackler in program history.

Considering Blanding leads the ACC in tackles with 10.6 tackles per game, he’ll likely own the top spot sometime on Saturday in Pittsburgh. Not that he’s all that interested in the record right now.

“Personally, I’m not looking at that right now,” Blanding said after last week’s game. “I’ve got a lot more ball to play. I’m going back to the drawing board as well to watch the mistakes I made this week and getting ready for Pitt.”

What is Blanding concerned with then? Making sure his team refocused before this week’s game with the Panthers. In fact, his mind shifted there long before he came to the media room at Scott Stadium last Saturday. Or before coach Bronco Mendenhall even made it to the locker room.

Blanding gathered the team and delivered a message before the coaches even addressed the team. The message was two-fold. First, understand what it takes to win. Second, trust each other and stick together.

“I closed the door and went in the locker room, and when I closed the door, Quin Blanding already had the entire team called up and he was addressing them,” Mendenhall said. “I didn’t have to say a thing. Quin said it best and said it more appropriately than I could, and he claimed ownership of not only the outcome but setting direction and going forward, which is pretty impressive. What he said and how he said it I think was authentic. It was real and effective. The team is certainly disappointed, but they also understand how much they contributed to the outcome. This wasn’t an outcome that was imposed on them, this was something that through our preparation we certainly could have played at a higher level and didn’t, and we were all accountable for that, players and coaches.”

The other part of the message was about staying unified to take on adversity. It doesn’t matter what outside observers are saying about bowl bid possibilities, good or bad, or anything else that could be a distraction. The team has to focus on the work at hand and how piecing it together can lead to wins.

”We did this. We’re out there on the field. It’s just us,” Blanding said. ”We’re on the sideline. No one else can control it. It doesn’t matter who they are, writers, fans, it doesn’t matter. Like I told my guys, we’re all we’ve got and that’s the bottom line, we’ve got to keep that within us and trust in one another and trust this process.”

Kris’ Keys To Winning

1. Don’t fumble away the opportunity. On the brink of bowl eligibility for the first time since 2014, Virginia missed its first opportunity to secure a spot in the postseason rotation against Boston College. The next chance comes against Pittsburgh. Ball security could be a big factor in the outcome. The Panthers are tied for the ACC lead with six fumble recoveries this season and they’ve forced five fumbles so opponents aren’t just cough up the football by themselves. Pitt is also third in the league with 13 turnovers gained overall. UVA has lost just one fumble this season, but has put the ball on the ground 13 times total. The Hoos have lost seven turnovers overall. On the flipside, the Panthers have lost five fumbles themselves along with five interceptions. Virginia has gained 10 turnovers. In other words, both of these teams rank around the same spot nationally in turnover margin (UVA – 40th | Pitt – 44th) so if either can create an advantage in this game, it could be the difference.

2. Stop the run … but not at the expense of poor play-action defense. Much like BC, Pittsburgh is team that is at its best when establishing the run. The Panthers are 12-2 when rushing for 200 yards or more under coach Pat Narduzzi. They’re 0-4 this season when getting outrushed by the opponent (and 0-3 when losing the Time of Possession battle). Last week in a win at Duke, Darrin Hall tallied 254 rushing yards by himself. UVA comes into the contest off of back-to-back games where the run defense wasn’t as good as in previous weeks. The Hoos gave up 211 yards to UNC and 237 to Boston College, much of that on big breakout runs by both opponents. Bottling up the big gainers and stopping the run remains a key part of the winning formula for Virginia, but it can’t lose track of players in play-action either. The Eagles took advantage of the run-stopping mindset last week and had the UVA defense out of sorts all day long. All of which brings us to …

3. Containing Quadree Henderson. Pitt’s wide receiver is a quadruple threat in the running game, the receiving game, the kickoff return game, and the punt return game. Henderson and Tony Dorsett are the only two players in Pittsburgh history to post 2,000 all-purpose yards in a season, which Henderson did last season. He’s closing in on 1,000 all-purpose yards this season too. In the run game, Henderson’s had two 100-yard games and is a threat on the jet sweep type of run that BC scored on last week. He had just one carry for six yards against UVA last season. In the receiving game, he has not been as dangerous with 39 catches for 413 yards but you still have to keep tabs on him. On special teams, however, he’s really dangerous. With six career return touchdowns, he’s close to the NCAA record of eight. That includes an 80-yard punt return touchdown against Georgia Tech this season and a 93-yard kickoff return touchdown against the Hoos a year ago. He also returned a punt 29 yards in last year’s meeting to set up a field goal. Virginia’s chances of winning decrease if Henderson gets loose for an explosive play in this one.

The Picks

Sabre Editor Kris Wright: I’ve written something along these lines umpteen times over the last several years, but here we go again. If the Hoos don’t figure out a way to score more points, they’re going to continue to lose games. The Cavaliers have scored 20 points or less in eight of their last 12 games against FBS competition, including two of the last three outings. For context sake, you have to average 28.4 points or more to rank in the top half the FBS’ 130 teams. Pitt comes into this game tied for 89th nationally in scoring defense by allowing 29.6 points per game. The Hoos put up 31 on the Panthers last season. Bottom line? If the team wants to win more games, it better figure out a way to score some points again no matter how good the defense is. I just don’t see that turning dramatically based on the trend, but the Hoos figure out a way to eke out the win this week. VIRGINIA 27, PITTSBURGH 24. Season To Date: 4-3.

Sabre Associate Editor Chris Horne: Last week’s performance is hard to explain given the way the season was going. Juan Thornhill potentially being out is concerning as well. However, I’m not impressed with the Pitt team. I think UVA regroups and pulls out a win. VIRGINIA 21, PITTSBURGH 17. Season To Date: 4-3.