99 Virginia Football Thoughts Before Kickoff

Virginia kicks off this week!
Jordan Ellis returns as one of UVA’s primary backs. ~ Kris Wright

When the Virginia football team kicks off the season Saturday, it will be the first time since the 2011 season that the campaign begins under the lights. The last time the Cavaliers began the season with a night game came in a win against William & Mary to start the 2011 schedule.

Dave Koehn, Voice of the Cavaliers, joked with Bronco Mendenhall on Tuesday’s Coaches’ Corner Radio show (held at sponsor Birdwood Grill/Boar’s Head Sports Club) that maybe that’s a good omen. After all, the 2011 team finished 8-4 in the regular season with a trip to the Chick-fil-A Bowl. The Cavaliers won the opener 40-3.

Of course, if these Wahoos are going to put together their own successful season, they’re going to need players to step forward and produce in 2018. The “99 Virginia Football Thoughts Before Kickoff” series looks at the “money” options.

No. 4 – Money Options

During the course of the season, it’s easy to look at the game-by-game statistics and the season totals to get an idea of who some of the team’s contributors are. Last season, Kurt Benkert threw for a single-season program record of 3,207 yards with 25 touchdowns. Quin Blanding posted his fourth 100-tackle season with 137 stops. Micah Kiser led the team again with 145 tackles. Doni Dowling posted 647 receiving yards to go over 600 again. And so on.

There is a different way to break down the numbers that seemed like a good study this week as kickoff for a new season approaches. In the weekly Virginia game notes, there’s a segment called “Money Plays” and that’s defined as plays that result in a first down or a touchdown. In other words, this lists the players that move the chains or put points on the board.

In 2017, the names aren’t too surprising. In terms of running plays, Jordan Ellis created 51 first downs or touchdowns on 215 attempts. He, of course, handled the majority of run calls with nearly 200 more carries than the next person on the list. Still, he produced a first down or touchdown on 23.7% of those runs. On third down, he put up 23 money plays on 45 attempts and on fourth down, he put up five on eight attempts.

Ellis is back this season. Also returning this season is Joe Reed, who had five first downs or touchdowns on 21 total rushing attempts in 2017. Olamide Zaccheaus had three on 27 attempts and Chris Sharp had three on 11 attempts. PK Kier, who figures to be more involved in the run game this season as the projected No. 2 back behind Ellis, had three on six attempts.

It will be interesting to monitor if Kier or possibly Jamari Peacock get any shots at third-and-short or fourth-and-short chances on the ground this season or will Ellis continue to get the heavy majority of those money attempts.

You can’t go through money play options and continue to ignore the quarterback change, though. Kurt Benkert ran for 12 first downs on 34 total running attempts. That included five on 13 second down runs and five on 11 third down runs (he was one for one on fourth down). Benkert, however, did most of his work in the pocket. He tried to extend plays to throw and not tuck it for his own carries. There weren’t too many designed run calls and he only scrambled on his own at times. That all played to his strengths.

Bryce Perkins, the new UVA starter, brings a different style to the position. He’s someone you can design running plays for more often and he’s much more likely to scramble for yards if the pocket breaks down. It’s also possible that the Hoos will roll the pocket more than with Benkert, leaving the decision to run or throw up to Perkins on some plays. That should create more money running plays from the quarterback position.

That may or may not lead to an overall uptick in total money plays. It’s possible, for example, that Perkins adds more runs to the third down QB attempts, but that subtracts a little bit from the third down receptions. Seeing how he handles decision-making in those situations is one of the storylines for the 2018 campaign. Plus, the change at quarterback could lead to a fresh script for offensive coordinator Robert Anae. Does that lead to different options in the playbook on second-and-medium, for example? Again, that’s something that will be interesting to watch.

Over on the receiving side of the ledger, and again it’s not surprising, Zaccheaus led the way. He set the single-season program record for receptions with 85 catches in 2017 so he had a lot of opportunities to make plays. Zaccheaus tallied 45 catches that went for first downs or touchdowns so that’s a money play 52.9% of the time. Dowling had 27 on 49 catches, while Andre Levrone put up 23 on 34 catches (67.6%!). Levrone, of course, produced seven touchdowns so he scored on one out of every five receptions he made approximately.

Other players that are returning this season include tight end Evan Butts, who had 13 money plays on 32 catches. Reed recorded 11 on 23 catches. Ellis had seven on 22 catches. Receiver Hasise Dubois posted five money plays on 16 catches. Keep an eye on Dubois, who from reports has elevated his work this offseason and developed some good chemistry with new quarterback Bryce Perkins. He’ll be filling into Dowling’s role in part so he could be a prominent player in the money category in 2018. Butts also is emerging as a reliable target for yet another quarterback so expect him to stay steady here too.

Analyzing the money receptions by downs is interesting. As a team, UVA came up with 42 money plays on 118 first down receptions. That means a third of the time (35.6%), the offense moved the chains again or scored a touchdown on a first down pass. How will that breakdown look this time around? The Hoos ran the ball 164 times on first down last season so keep an eye on the ratio there too.

On third down, several players delivered consistently on their catches. Zaccheaus turned 16 of his 22 receptions into a money play on third down (72.7%). Levrone matched that percentage with eight of 11 third down catches. Two players on the list that put up really good percentages will have bigger roles this year so that could be a good sign for the offense. Dubois turned four of his five third down catches (80%) into first downs. Reed converted two of three third down catches into first downs. (Of note, Zaccheaus was two for two on fourth down catches too.)

In summary, when it comes to the players that move the chains and score touchdowns, there will be a mix of familiar faces and new contributors in 2018. Plus, there’s the Perkins’ element in the equation to monitor.

The “99 Virginia Football Thoughts Before Kickoff” series has discussed much more. The previous articles are below. Click away.