99 Virginia Football Thoughts Before Kickoff

Starting back in late May, the “99 Virginia Football Thoughts Before Kickoff” series starting counting down the days until the Cavaliers returned to the gridiron. Fans can convert that to hours at this point. The Cavaliers open with Richmond at 6 p.m. on Saturday, which is fewer than 48 hours away.

Over the past three months, this series touched on a lot of trends, storylines, and personnel. As Bronco Mendenhall enters year three of his tenure in Charlottesville, many of those things serve as benchmarks for progress, areas to target for improvement, or players to watch on the current roster. With that in mind, let’s recap some of the big themes for the 2018 campaign ahead.

The “99 Virginia Football Thoughts Before Kickoff” series nears completion.

No. 2 – The Big Themes

The Cavaliers snapped a six-year bowl drought last season with a 6-6 regular season record that earned a spot in the Military Bowl. While that appearance ended with a thud against Navy, it did put the Hoos in position to do something they haven’t done since 2004 and 2005 and that’s make back-to-back bowl trips. If they’re going to pull off that feat, some of the big themes below will be factors in the results.

Replacing the big names

Roster turnover in college football is common with four- or five-year players cycling through their careers in school. It’s not too often a program loses the program record holders for career tackles and single-season passing yards plus the three-time leading tackler in conference play all in the same season, though. The Hoos must figure out life without safety Quin Blanding, quarterback Kurt Benkert, and linebacker Micah Kiser this season and that doesn’t even mention the losses of NFL Draft pick Andrew Brown from the defensive line and two 600-yard receivers in Andre Levrone and Doni Dowling. There are, however, some players prepared to fill into those holes.

Upperclassmen are outnumbered, but they’re among the most talented players on the roster

Virginia’s roster features 62 freshmen, which makes up 50% of the 124 players in the program currently. That doesn’t even mention the 27 sophomores. In other words, the upperclassmen on this team aren’t as numerous as the youngsters. Still, the juniors and seniors are among the most talented and most productive players on the roster.

Senior receiver Olamide Zaccheaus set the program record for catches in a season last year with 85 to go along with 895 receiving yards and five touchdowns through the air. He added 182 rushing yards and a score too. Senior running back Jordan Ellis led the team with 215 carries for 836 yards and six touchdowns a year ago. Senior tight end Evan Butts had 32 catches a year ago to rank fourth among ACC tight ends. Jake Fieler has worked himself into a consistent offensive lineman entering his senior year too.

Senior Chris Peace led ACC linebackers with 7.5 sacks a year ago. Senior Juan Thornhill slides over to safety where he’ll potentially put up some big numbers. Senior Joe Spaziani has locked down the long snapper role, while senior punter Lester Coleman earned second-team All-ACC honors in 2017.

Then there are juniors like linebacker Jordan Mack, who piled up 114 tackles last season, and defensive lineman Eli Hanback, who made 58 tackles last season to rank third among D-linemen from the past decade at UVA. Junior Bryce Hall made 47 tackles and defended 10 passes at corner in 2017. Receiver Joe Reed returned two kickoffs for touchdowns last season.

What’s in store with Bryce Perkins?

Perkins helped Arizona Western Community College reach the junior college national title game last season and then earned the starting quarterback job at UVA after enrolling in January. His highlights offer some excitement thanks to a blend of speed, running moves, and a strong arm. Truthfully, however, there’s little to go on when projecting the possibilities for Perkins. If he adjusts to FBS level football, particularly after opponents get some film and tendencies on him early in the year, then he could be highly productive in a scheme designed around options for the QB. If he struggles a bit with the step up in his first year as a starter, then it could be an up-and-down season.

Then there’s the depth chart at quarterback. The Cavaliers pretty much have all their proverbial eggs in the Perkins’ basket because the two backups are sophomore Lindell Stone and true freshman Brennan Armstrong. There’s a large gap in what’s possible on offense between Perkins and the reserves.

Defensive line depth

The defensive line has been a conversation piece repeatedly in the offseason. The Cavaliers really don’t have any experienced bodies other than Eli Hanback and Mandy Alonso, a true freshman a year ago that picked up a lot of snaps late in the year. Richard Burney flipped from tight end to defensive end ahead of the bowl game last season to provide some depth. In order to boost the numbers up front, the coaches brought in two transfers and numerous freshmen too. The two transfers will not suit up in the opener and have yet to earn a number. Two of the freshmen, however, figure to be in the rotation from the beginning to the end of the season. Jordan Redmond is the listed starter at nose tackle, while Aaron Faumui will come off the bench. Injuries to this unit could force the defense to make adjustments.

Explosive plays

On both sides of the ball, this is an area to monitor. The Cavaliers have had issues defensively in preventing long scoring plays. They’ve allowed 31 touchdowns of 25 yards or more during the first two years of Mendenhall’s tenure. There was improvement from year one to year two and another step forward in year three could help this team’s quest for another bowl bid. Offensively, the Hoos made progress last season with 17 touchdowns of 25+ yards after posting just eight long scores in 2016. With big-play threat Andre Levrone gone, the offense needs to find a deep receiving option to try to keep explosive touchdowns on the passing menu.

Scoring offense

In the first two seasons under offensive coordinator Robert Anae, UVA has averaged 22.5 points per game. That’s among the worst averages at the FBS level. That just extends a long streak of years with low scoring production, though. Virginia hasn’t averaged more than 26 points per game since 2005. That’s been a major contributor to the losing records and lack of bowl games from 2006-2018.

Ground game

If the 2018 team is going bowling again, then both sides of the ball have to get better with the rushing game. The offense averaged just 93.5 yards per game on the ground last season, which ranked 128th out of 130 FBS teams last season. To score more points and to be more consistent offensively, the running game simply needs to improve. On the defensive side of the ball, things didn’t look much better. UVA allowed 199.3 rushing yards per game last season to rank 102nd nationally. The inability to stop the run wears down the defense and leads to lopsided scores too often.

Turnovers and near misses

The Wahoos finished with a -1 turnover margin last season, the third best mark since 2008. The defense snared 15 interceptions to lead that side of the ball. That’s tied for the third best total for the program since 1998. On the flipside, UVA fumbled the ball 24 times last season (119th nationally). Virginia only lost eight of those fumbles, though, so those near misses could have changed the turnover margin dramatically. Two of the main culprits in the decade-long struggle for the program are turnovers and scoring offense so this is a critical category to monitor.

Growing speed

One thing that seems to be on the rise at UVA is team speed. Offensively, Zaccheaus, Perkins, and Reed all have shown the ability to burst out for big yards on video. That doesn’t even account for sophomores Lamont Atkins and De’Vante Cross or true freshmen Tavares Kelly, Ugo Obasi, Billy Kemp, or Wooby Theork-Youmans. The defense, meanwhile, features players like Juan Thornhill and Brenton Nelson. The more players on the field that can make plays with quickness and acceleration, the better it can make a team.

Special teams and consistency

The Cavaliers flashed some strong moments on special teams. The aforementioned Coleman averaged 43.7 yards per punt to rank fourth in the ACC last year. Reed led the ACC in kickoff returns at 29.7 yards per return. He took two kickoffs back for touchdowns, including the opening kickoff in the bowl game. On the other hand, UVA also gave up two punt returns for touchdowns last season. The Hoos haven’t made a field goal beyond 40 yards in the Mendenhall era either.

For a team likely to be in some toss-up games again this season, more consistency on special teams could help the cause.

The “99 Virginia Football Thoughts Before Kickoff” series has discussed much more. The previous articles are below. Click away.

• No. 99 – The Importance Of A Fast Start
• No. 98 – The Impact Of Early-Ending Careers
• No. 97 – Jordan Mack’s Role
• No. 96 – Welcome Back
• No. 95 – Han Solo Says
• No. 94 – Smart Addition
• No. 93 – The Center Spot
• No. 92 – Finding A Punt Returner
• No. 91 – Facing Running Quarterbacks
• No. 90 – Interceptions
• No. 89 – Kickoff Times
• No. 88 – QB Optimism Not Enough To Tilt Early Predictions Too Far
• No. 87 – It Starts With Jordan Ellis
• No. 86 – Virginia’s Most Dangerous Game
• No. 85 – The Tight End Swan Song?
• No. 84 – Teach A Man To Fish
• No. 83 – No Ordinary Joe
• No. 82 – Now Or Then
• No. 81 – How To Treat The Kickoff Rule Change
• No. 80 – Play, But Still Redshirt
• No. 79 – Which Red Zone Offense Is The Real One?
• No. 78 – Schedule For Success
• No. 77 – Who’s The Worst?
• No. 76 – ACC Coach Rankings
• No. 75 – Keep That Cold Weather Gear
• No. 74 – 1,000 Target For OZ
• No. 73 – Cross Out Cross-Training For Cross
• No. 72 – Punting Plans
• No. 71 – Redshirted … Ready?
• No. 70 – A June Jolt
• No. 69 – Who?
• No. 68 – Stops To Start Second Half
• No. 67 – Root, Root, Root For …
• No. 66 – Wildcard Extras
• No. 65 – Defense Showed Red Zone Improvement
• No. 64 – Welcome Back, Mr. Robinson
• No. 63 – The Florida Footprint
• No. 62 – True Freshmen Will Play, But Who Will Make The Most Impact?
• No. 61 – Four Fireworks-Worthy Moments In The Bronco Mendenhall Era
• No. 60 – Juan Thornhill Primed For An All-ACC Caliber Season
• No. 59 – Rebuilding The Offensive Line Is On Schedule
• No. 58 – Bouncing Back On The Defensive Line
• No. 57 – Underrated Hoos
• No. 56 – Lordy, Lordy, How ‘Bout 40?
• No. 55 – Peace Talk
• No. 54 – Hoos’ Handle On Social Media Bodes Well For Future Recruiting
• No. 53 – Filling The Void At Wide Receiver
• No. 52 – The Sixth-Year Seniors
• No. 51 – Borrowing A Burning Question
• No. 50 – Beat Tech!
• No. 49 – A Resolute Leader
• No. 48 – The Perkins Theorem
• No. 47 – Beat Pitt!
• No. 46 – A Look At Virginia Football’s 2018 Walk-On Class
• No. 45 – I Sense A Trend
• No. 44 – The Need For (More) Speed
• No. 43 – Progress With Penalties
• No. 42 – Preseason All-ACC Musings
• No. 41 – Designing Sacks
• No. 40 – Go Long
• No. 39 – Please Stay Healthy!
• No. 38 – Sorting Out The Secondary
• No. 37 – Preseason Injury Report Concerns
• No. 36 – The Third Down Swap
• No. 35 – The Last Time
• No. 34 – More Rushing Options
• No. 33 – Opponents Say
• No. 32 – Preseason Practice Watch List
• No. 31 – Snowden Emerging
• No. 30 – Deja Vu With Dubois?
• No. 29 – Reduce Opponents’ Explosive Touchdowns
• No. 28 – Nelson’s Encore
• No. 27 – Ranking The Positions On Offense From Strongest To Weakest
• No. 26 – Hold On To That Ball Petey!
• No. 25 – R.J., The Elder
• No. 24 – Bratton’s Road Of Resilience
• No. 23 – Tag Team Linebacker
• No. 22 – Numbers Begin To Fill In
• No. 21 – Ranking The Positions On Defense From Strongest To Weakest
• No. 20 – Eli’s Gold
• No. 19 – Covering Punts
• No. 18 – I Need A Sub!
• No. 17 – Is Mejia The Answer Virginia Needs At Place-Kicker?
• No. 16 – More Position Changes In Store For The First Years?
• No. 15 – Moore More Ready
• No. 14 – German Flair
• No. 13 – Jersey Selection Musings
• No. 12 – Mystery Man
• No. 11 – Increasing Explosive Touchdown Plays
• No. 10 – Countdown Wishes
• No. 9 – Opponents’ Plan: Run It At ‘Em
• No. 8 – Virginia Native Coming Around To Provide Needed Depth At DL
• No. 7 – Depth Chart Musings
• No. 6 – The Chuck Bandwagon
• No. 5 – With Williams, Virginia Football Future Seems Bright
• No. 4 – Money Options
• No. 3 – More Opportunistic