The long wait for Virginia football season comes to close this weekend when the Cavaliers host Richmond on Saturday at Scott Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 6 p.m. The game provides some intrigue from varying angles.
There is the coaching storyline as both head coaches try to settle in and establish a groove with their programs. At Richmond, Russ Huesman enters his second year in charge after a 6-5 start to his tenure a year ago. He was an assistant on the Spiders’ 2008 National Championship team under then head coach Mike London, who obviously left to take on the UVA job.
That’s who Bronco Mendenhall replaced and he enters year three of his tenure in Charlottesville. Mendenhall is one of three active coaches to inherit at least two programs in his career that were coming off a losing season and in year one, or year two, played in a bowl game. The Cavaliers snapped a six-year bowl drought last season.
In other words, both teams are in a different place than two years ago when Richmond opened the 2016 season with a 37-20 win at Scott Stadium. That game served as sort of the wake-up call barometer for Mendenhall and company – as well as many fans – for how much of a rebuilding job awaited at Virginia.
Still, many of Monday’s media questions focused more on the ‘revenge game’ factor for this weekend’s matchup than anything else. That line of thinking trickled all the way back to the ACC Football Kickoff event in July too. It’s a little odd considering how fast the news cycle turns now a days and how different the programs look than from that game. At most, that loss from 2016 seems like it should be a footnote.
The main area of interest seems like it should be the new starting quarterbacks at both schools.
Kevin Johnson takes over as the full-time starter for the Spiders for the first time, inheriting the role from Colonial Athletic Association Offensive Player of the Year Kyle Lauletta. Richmond fans have seen Johnson in action because the redshirt junior took over for an injured Lauletta in the 2016 playoffs and led his team to two wins. He gave up his redshirt to lead that playoff run and then used it in 2017 instead.
For his career, Johnson has 35 carries for 14 yards with two touchdowns. He’s completed 52 of 83 passes for 783 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. The bulk of those numbers came during the FCS playoff run in 2016. He threw for 315 yards in his first career start against North Carolina A&T in those playoffs and then followed it up with 289 yards and two touchdowns in an upset of No. 7 North Dakota. In other words, he’s capable of stepping into a tricky situation and having success.
Bryce Perkins, who Wahoo fans have seen in limited action so far due to the behind closed doors nature of practice, got the nod for Virginia after spring practice and he’s ushering in a dual threat scheme change for the offense. The Cavaliers are shifting from more pocket passing plays with former starter Kurt Benkert into an option-based offense with Perkins. He joined UVA from Arizona Western Community College where he helped his team make it to the junior college national championship game. He threw for 1,311 yards and seven touchdowns last fall.
Mendenhall said Wednesday that Perkins has been impressive in practice as he moves along the development curve.
“What I’ve seen to this point is a dynamic athlete who’s explosive and fast, has all the physical tools to really extend plays and to create what I’m hoping to see and what we expect over time is the proficiency of playing the position of quarterback with the execution and the mastery of that position as well as the leadership that comes with leading a football team,” Mendenhall said. “The progress goes from athlete to quarterback to leader, then hopefully the team will have the success that we all hope will be a result from that.”
With that backdrop in mind, let’s look at the keys to the game and the predictions for who will win.
Kris’ Keys To Winning
1. Strength Test
On paper, much of this matchup appears to boil down to a strength vs. strength showdown. The Cavaliers feature a deep and experienced secondary that is expected to set the tone on defense. Junior Bryce Hall said this week that he thinks the secondary can be even more disruptive with even more interceptions this season after making 15 picks in 2017. They’ll get a test right of the gates with Richmond, though.
The Spiders bring back one of the FCS level’s top receiving groups this season. The trio of Tyler Wilkins, Cortrelle Simpson, and Dejon Brissett combined for the highest per-game total of any returning trio nationally with 253.7 receiving yards per game last season. All earned All-CAA nods with Brissett on the first team and the other duo on the second team. They combined for 2,791 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns in 2017. So while UVA had three receivers with 600+ yards last season, Richmond had three with 800+. It’s a talented group.
If UVA’s secondary can prevent any huge gainers or trips to the end zone from that trio, that should put the Hoos in charge of the game.
2. On Line One …
Virginia will open the year with a projected mix of experience on the offensive line. From the center spot through right tackle, there are three players with double-digit starts in their history. Center Dillon Reinkensmeyer started 11 times last season as a redshirt freshman and helped spark the offense early in the season when he first slotted into the center spot. Right guard Jake Fieler has started 15 times in his career, including all 13 games a year ago. His 2017 season included 34 knockdown blocks. Right tackle Marcus Applefield came in as a grad transfer from Rutgers, where he started 11 times in his career including 10 times last season. On the left side, a pair of upcoming guys line up. Left tackle Ryan Nelson will make his first career start in his first career game after redshirting last fall. Left guard Chris Glaser played the final five games last season after injuries took a tool up front.
How will that unit handle a Richmond defense that plays mostly out of 4-2-5? The Cavaliers want to establish a stronger running game this season and then build off the options that potentially provides, but their first test with the new schemes in place comes against a group with the potential to be disruptive. The Spiders finished second in the CAA in 2017 with 35 sacks. Andrew Clyde is back for his senior season after he led the team with nine sacks last fall. Two years ago when Mendenhall first installed a new defensive system, the players struggled to execute in the opener and lost. The good news in that sense is that while this is a system overhaul of sorts on offense, there are enough pieces with similarities for the Hoos to feel comfortable. If the O-Line is up to the task, it could get things off to a good start.
3. Score more points!
Put up more points than the opponent. Duh right? This one applies to this game as foreshadowing for the entire season. The Spiders allowed 24.7 points per game last season at the FCS level, but proved vulnerable in some games to big scoring outputs. Sam Houston State rolled to 48 points, while Elon (36), Albany (38), and Delaware (42) had big outings too. With the weapons the Wahoos claim to have on offense, including several “one play” touchdown threats in Perkins, Olamide Zaccheaus, Joe Reed, Tavares Kelly, and others, they should be able to get free for a scoring day in the high 20’s or better.
If not, that could be a discouraging sign for the season ahead when it comes to offense or, at the very least, an indication that the scheme shift isn’t taking root as fast as hoped. That’s something UVA football fans are all too familiar with. The Hoos haven’t averaged more than 26 points per game since 2005 (the top half of the 130 FBS teams averaged 28+ last season, while UVA averaged 22.5 to rank 107th nationally). Before this 13-year offensive drought, they had dipped to lower than 26 points per game just three times from 1989 to 2005. From 2006 to 2018, however, they’ve averaged 23.2 points or less eight times. So yeah, score more points.
The Picks
Sabre Editor Kris Wright
The Game: First things first, the outlook for the Richmond game this weekend favors the Cavaliers. Unlike two seasons ago, this coaching staff has had time to establish its expectations for day-to-day operations from the players and time to grow players through the systems. That should lead to a better executing group this time around. Plus, I think Virginia’s strengths match up well in this game. If the Hoos establish the run to set up more efficient drives, that should lead to happy group of Hoos Saturday night. VIRGINIA 38, RICHMOND 20. Season to date: 0-0. 2017 Season: 7-5.
The Season: With that out of the way, what fans really want to know is whether the program has found more stable footing in year three of the Mendenhall era. There are reasons for concern from the many underclassmen on the roster to defensive line depth to replacing key players at the critical positions of quarterback and middle linebacker. An injury to Perkins could throw the season’s potential into serious question.
Yet, the rebuilding plan Mendenhall put in place appears to be gaining steam. There is depth at more positions with more explosiveness in many spots. There are reports of strength and size gains across the roster from the offseason. And, perhaps most importantly, there’s a growing belief system and confidence level among the players. That can be a powerful thing. Year three could be a step back if things break wrong in certain areas, but it could also be an incredibly important bridge year if things go well. There’s something about this group to me that feels like it is up to the task a la 2002. I’ll abstain from the bowl pick. Season: 7-5.
Sabre Associate Editor Chris Horne
The Game: Mendenhall mentioned during Monday’s press conference that the first game of the regular season can be unpredictable. He experienced this first-hand two years ago, when Richmond strolled into Scott Stadium and handed UVA a 37-20 defeat in Mendenhall’s first game as Cavalier head coach.
UVA is a different program heading into this year’s matchup with Richmond. The Spiders do pose some challenges, particularly with a terrific trio of wide receivers and a potentially potent running game with dual-threat quarterback Kevin Johnson and a capable trio of backs, but Virginia, even with a thin defensive line, should be able to slow Richmond’s offense. Virginia’s offense has some questions. However, new quarterback Bryce Perkins, Olamide Zaccheaus, Jordan Ellis and company will settle in and spark the Hoos to victory. Virginia gets redemption in Scott Stadium on Saturday. VIRGINIA 38, RICHMOND 17. Season to date: 0-0. 2017 Season: 6-6.
The Season: At first glance, Virginia is capable of beating virtually any team on its 2018 schedule. Miami, NC State, and Virginia Tech will be tough, but outside of those teams Virginia has a chance to do quite well. But there are a lot of questions. How will Bryce Perkins perform against major FBS competition? Will the offensive line surpass mediocrity to become a real force? Will more offensive playmakers emerge alongside star Olamide Zaccheaus? Most importantly, can Virginia’s offense finally be consistent? On defense, Virginia’s defensive backs should be terrific, and I like the linebackers as well. However, will the defensive line stay healthy, and if they do will the new players Virginia will count on be consistent throughout the season?
Given the schedule and taking a leap of faith that some of those questions will be answered in positive fashion, I see Virginia going bowling for a second straight year. I’m predicting a finish that includes a bowl win this time around. Season: 7-6.
