The Virginia football team’s season got started with an eventful three weeks. The season-opening win against Richmond started late due to a weather delay. The loss at Indiana took place in a steady downpour. Then the ‘home’ game victory against Ohio last week actually took place in Nashville due to concerns with Hurricane Florence.
UVA took care of business in two of the three games to stand at 2-1 on the season with one non-conference game remaining against Liberty in November. Until then, the Hoos will be entrenched in ACC play and that starts with the conference opener against Louisville on Saturday in Charlottesville.
The Cardinals have posted a 3-1 record against the Cavaliers since joining the ACC in 2014. Virginia’s only win in that span came in the conference opener in 2014 when Louisville came to Scott Stadium ranked 21st in the nation, but fell 23-21.
The Hoos would love to duplicate that outcome in this weekend’s matchup between two 2-1 teams. UVA needs four more victories to reach bowl eligibility in back-to-back years for the first time since 2004 and 2005. Opportunities for home wins could play a key role in that quest with Louisville, Miami, UNC, Pittsburgh, and Liberty all scheduled to play at Scott Stadium still this season.
“Yeah, every home game, whether it’s ACC or not, is critical,” Cavalier coach Mendenhall said. “Every time you can get an advantage in this league, at any level, no matter how minuscule or how significant, you have to leverage it because they don’t come very often. Everyone has good coaches; everyone has good players. It’s a challenge every single week. So if you have a chance to be at home or any advantage you can possibly get, to squander is, it’s very difficult to get it back if you do. So we think home games for us are an advantage. We’re looking forward to being home and playing. I like the resiliency of our team. We’ve demonstrated that we’re capable but inconsistent is what I think we’ve shown so far. That’s been my message to the team in driving home the areas we have to improve knowing the clock is ticking, and having Louisville come in as a nice additional incentive just to say, ‘Let’s go’.”
With that in mind, let’s go to the keys and picks …
Kris’ Keys To Winning
1. Get OZ The Ball
Duh, right? Virginia’s senior receiver is coming off not only a career day, but a program record outing against Ohio. He hauled in nine receptions for a single-game record-setting 247 yards against the Bobcats. That included touchdowns of 86 and 77 yards that contributed to the 45-31 W.
After setting the best mark in program history for receptions last season, it’s clear that Zaccheaus is an important piece of the puzzle. So getting him the ball is a good idea obviously. Mendenhall stated again this week that the team knows how important getting him involved is each week not just because of his own production, but how it opens things up for other players too.
How important? Zaccheaus has scored in every win of the Mendenhall era to date with one exception, that coming in last year’s bowl clincher against Georgia Tech.
2. Don’t Lose On Special Teams
In many ways, this game looks fairly even on paper. Virginia has the statistical edge for scoring offense and scoring defense as well as in turnover margin. Louisville is a little better in the red zone. And keep in mind, that the Cardinals’ numbers are impacted by playing against No.1 Alabama already.
Where the Cardinals may be able to create an edge, however, is on special teams. They have better numbers for kickoff returns, punt returns, and field goals made. Considering UVA’s issues the past couple of weeks – three turnovers by return units (kickoff return fumble, punt return fumble, and a failed onsides kick recovery) and a missed field goal – with those units, this is an area that could swing momentum if not the result.
Louisville kicker Blanton Creque has made 36 career field goals and is on a streak of five straight makes right now dating back to last season. He’s made 6 of 9 kicks from beyond 40 yards in his career and 30 of 33 inside the 30. UVA, meanwhile, considers its kicking competition open with A.J. Mejia now 1 of 3 on the season and 9 of 15 in his career on field goal attempts. He’s yet to connect outside of 40 yards.
In the return game, Louisville’s Rodjay Burns has been a spark in the punt return game where he ranks fourth nationally in return average at 30.4 yards per return. He had a 55-yarder against Indiana State and a 36-yarder against Western Kentucky. that’s pushed the team up to fifth nationally in punt return average, while the Hoos rank 92nd (tied) in the same category. Tavares Kelly did break one off last week, but he also had the fumble on another. The two teams currently have a fairly similar net punting number – 38.2 for Louisville and 38.5 for UVA – but a big return can change that in a hurry and Cav fans saw Indiana and Pittsburgh pull out a win last year thanks in part to a punt return touchdown. Of note, Louisville’s Mason King leads the ACC with a 43.6 punting average after three weeks.
Finally, Jared Goldwire blocked a field goal last week for the Cardinals. UVA blocked an extra point and another attempt at Indiana as well. If either team can duplicate that this week, it could be a factor.
3. Do Not Pass Go, Do Not Collect 200
In many ways, this game might come down to which offensive line can establish the running game to assist their mobile quarterbacks both through designed QB keepers and by opening up the pass around the run threat. The Cardinals have an athletic front seven that will challenge the Hoos and Bryce Perkins, while Mendenhall’s blitz schemes could be challenging for a first-time starter in quarterback Malik Cunningham.
The magic number for UVA’s run defense in this battle has to be 200 yards allowed. Louisville is stellar under Bobby Petrino when it gets to 200 yards rushing in a game, owning a 50-6 record when hitting that mark in Petrino’s two separate tenures. Since Petrino came back in 2014, the Cards are 23-4 in games with 200 yards rushing. To get the job done in this category, the Hoos must contain Cunningham and avoid any rush lane breakdowns that have sometimes been a problem within this scheme.
The Picks
Sabre Editor Kris Wright
When it comes to picking this week’s game, I honestly have no idea what to think. The Cardinals have not looked great to observers, particularly in the first half of games, but Malik Cunningham helped rally them to two wins anyway. The oddsmakers have pinned UVA as the favorite a little beyond the standard home bump. Plus, the Cavaliers have played the Cards well in Charlottesville in ACC play with a win in 2014 and a near upset in 2016 before eventual Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson saved the day with a two-minute drill drive at the end. The Hoos were in a close one on the road last year for a half too.
Still, there is the concern of inconsistency with Virginia – something the coaches regularly acknowledge – and that’s enough to wonder about what the full 60 minutes will look like in a given week. Three one-play touchdowns and a 38-point half last week at Ohio was followed by a single touchdown in the second half. After battling down 17-14 at the half in Louisville last season, UVA didn’t score again until 1:48 to go in a game that had ballooned to 38-14 by then. The Hoos sandwiched 40-point outbursts this season around the Indiana rain game with 16 points. It’s just hard to know what to expect.
With that said, Mendenhall did a good job scheming for Jackson the past two seasons and outside of last year’s 68-yard touchdown run, the Hoos mainly forced Jackson to win the game with his passing instead. He, of course, delivered both times. The question, though, is whether Cunningham can do the same thing in his first start? I don’t think so. That makes me think this game comes down to explosive scoring plays for UVA’s offense and potential miscues by the special teams – do the Hoos have any of either? If the answers are yes and no respectively, they’ll win. VIRGINIA 27, LOUISVILLE 20. Season to date: 2-1.
Sabre Associate Editor Chris Horne
No Lamar Jackson, no problem for the Virginia defense against Louisville, right? Not necessarily. While Louisville is still trying to replace its star quarterback, the Cardinals boast a good offensive line and have the skill position talent to threaten the UVA D. The Hoos will have to be sharp and play consistently to prevent any big-play touchdowns to Bobby Petrino’s offense.
Defensively, Louisville is young and athletic, but I think this could be a favorable matchup for the Hoos. We’ll start to get a little nervous if this comes down to special teams, where Virginia is once again in search of a consistent field goal kicker. Louisville does not have that problem.
Virginia has been susceptible to big plays this season, particularly in the pass game, but I’m not sold that the Louisville passing game is in a place to take advantage. UVA was good against the run against Ohio last week and I think that will carry over this week. If the Virginia offense can continue its success, the Cavaliers should come way with an ACC opening win for the third straight season. VIRGINIA 28, LOUISVILLE 17. Season to date: 2-1.
