Keys & Picks – Virginia At Duke 2018

Virginia and Duke square off on the football field this weekend as two teams still in the thick of the ACC’s Coastal Division race. The Cavaliers have a 4-2 record overall with a 2-1 mark in the ACC, while the Blue Devils sit at 5-1 overall and 1-1 in league play.

Duke boasts a potential NFL prospect at quarterback in Daniel Jones, who owns 16 career wins as a starter. That’s third all-time in program history and includes four victories so far this year. CBSSports.com this week listed Jones as the No. 5 NFL prospect in its latest QB Stock Watch piece.

Jones checks in at 6’5” and 220 pounds. The redshirt junior opened the season as one of two active quarterbacks with more than 5,500 passing yards and more than 1,000 rushing yards.

“Their quarterback is certainly capable of making any throw,” UVA coach Bronco Mendenhall said. “Certainly has the size to handle pressure, vision, arm strength. He’s been coached exceptionally well by probably one of the best offensive minds in quarterback coaches, David Cutcliffe. His preparation has led to his performance, and now he is more mature and older, and so every year he plays he gets better and better..”

With this season’s numbers added in, Jones has tallied 6,348 passing yards and 1,049 rushing yards. He’s thrown for 38 touchdowns with 22 interceptions and added 15 rushing touchdowns as well. Jones has posted a quarterback efficiency rating of 123 or better in all four of his games this season. In his career, 26 of 29 career games have featured a quarterback efficiency rating of 91 or better.

In other words, he’s been a productive player for the Blue Devils. Yet, there’s something about playing Virginia that’s thrown him off his game. Two of Jones’ three low QB efficiency numbers have come against UVA. Over 29 games, he’s averaged 218.9 passing yards and in two games against UVA, he’s beat that mark with 224 yards on average. Everywhere else, however, things get rocky.

Of Jones’ 22 interceptions in his career, seven have come against the Cavaliers. That’s nearly a third of the total at 31.8%. He’s thrown just two touchdown passes in those games, one in each season, to account for just 5% of his career total. He also fumbled the ball for a UVA touchdown back in 2016 when Jordan Mack popped him in the end zone. Overall, Jones has been sacked four times. That’s contributed to low rushing totals too. He’s got 60 rushing yards in the two games with no touchdowns.

That doesn’t mean Mendenhall thinks the Hoos have a magic potion for Jones nor does he think that they have his proverbial number.

“I certainly like his size. I like his arm strength. And for the most part, with the exception in our games, his decision making has been really strong,” Mendenhall said. “The main difference in the two games that we’ve beaten Duke is just, for whatever reason, the ball has been thrown to us. So some of the decisions the quarterback has made and just simply through the turnovers, that really has determined the outcome. I can’t say that it’s some wild or elaborate or unique scheme. It just has happened that in our two games the ball has been turned over from them to us more than maybe what it has in other games.”

Cutcliffe credited UVA’s defense for making the plays in the two meetings.

“I think Virginia plays good defense,” he said. “I don’t think there’s any other real reason. I’ve got to do a better job of having him prepared. Any time a player doesn’t perform what they think is their best level, I always look at myself. Got to put our players in good positions to be successful. That’s my job.”

Kris’ Keys To Winning

1. Be Able To Run The Ball

At this point in the season, it’s fair to say that Virginia’s offense is a run-based attack first and then it tries to build other pieces from there. UVA has rushed for 1,098 yards through six games at 4.9 yards per carry. Only the 2004 team over the past 19 seasons carried a 4.9+ ypc average at the same point in the schedule; that group averaged 5.2 ypc.

Obviously, when we say rushing attack, we really mean Bryce Perkins and Jordan Ellis. That duo has logged 199 of the team’s 227 carries on the season. Ellis averages 94 yards per game and 5.5 yards per carry on the year, while Perkins averages 67 per game at 4.1 yards per carry (sacks damper his true effectiveness on called running plays, though). The Hoos need at least on of those player, and preferably both, to be credible threats or a defense can dial into one and slow down the run if the offensive line’s inconsistencies pop up on drives.

Virginia held its own on a lot of plays last week in the win against Miami, which features the nation’s top tackles-for-loss defense. UVA won in short yardage situations too.

Duke brings a decent if not dominant run defense to the table to counter. The D ranks eighth in the conference in rushing yards allowed per game at 140.5, but it’s coming off a really strong outing against the run-heavy option attack of Georgia Tech. the Blue Devils held the Jackets to just 229 rushing yards, a full 144 below their season average. Plus, Duke really slowed TaQuon Marshall as he ended up with 41 rushing yards on 19 carries. That led to just 14 points for GT. The Devils had 11 tackles for loss in the win. That effort was led by linebacker Joe Giles-Harris, who had 15 tackles. That matched his output from last season’s UVA game.

Can either group carry over confidence from solid performances this past Saturday? Virginia needs to run the ball to be successful and with rain potentially in the forecast Saturday, that might be an even bigger key anyway. The coaches will challenge the O-Line to bring similar grit to the table this week.

2. Red Zone Visits & Conversions

If Virginia’s offense can get going on the ground and mix it up with passes as a result, that could set up some scoring chances. Will the Hoos be able to break through against the Duke defense in the red zone, though?

The Blue Devils enter this game as the ACC’s top red zone defense, allowing just a 64.3% scoring rate (9 of 14) by opponents. Those 14 trips into the red zone are a league-low allowed as well. When teams get there, they’ve scored touchdowns 57.1% of the time and that number falls to eighth in the ACC. The red zone defense has helped Duke keep four of its first six opponents at 20 points or fewer this season. The Devils rank 20th nationally in scoring defense as a result at 17.67 points allowed per game.

The bad news for the Hoos is that they enter this game ranked last in the league in red zone scoring percentage at 70.8% on the season (17 of 24); that includes a 50% touchdown rate (12 of 24). Perhaps, new kicker Brian Delaney helps settle the kicking part of the equation in that area of the field, but one way or another, UVA needs to improve in this area to get a W in Durham.

That’s been a key in recent meetings as well. In three straight wins against Duke, Virginia has scored on 90% of its red zone trips (9 of 10) with nine touchdowns.

3. Beware The Tight End

Duke’s tight ends don’t have huge numbers on the season, But on key third down catches and touchdowns, the duo of Daniel Helm and Davis Koppenhaver could be dangerous. Helm has eight catches for 86 yards this season, while Koppenhaver has seven for 49 yards. Koppenhaver does have four touchdown catches among those grabs, however, and he’s tied for second most career TD receptions by a tight end in program history. UVA linebacker Chris Peace mentioned to the media Monday that Duke’s tight ends look good on film and that they play a key role in the blocking part of the game too.

Virginia’s defensive scheme under Bronco Mendenhall has shown vulnerability to tight ends going across the field at times and Duke coach David Cutcliffe is a great offensive mind that might try to exploit that. Why? One, Jones has had some iffy outings against UVA in the past as discussed above and some simple throws to the tight end could be an attractive way to try to get him comfortable. Two, the Hoos have two young and inexperienced inside linebackers in Zane Zandier and Rob Snyder so creating situations to put them in coverage could be challenging. Three, the Cavaliers are really mixing up their looks with varying fronts, varying sub packages, and varying levels of pressure – quick throws to the flats or to tight ends boxing out smaller defensive backs could be a way to counter.

Duke’s tight ends probably won’t pile up a massive statistical day against UVA, but they could be a factor to keep the home team on track offensively.

The Picks

Sabre Editor Kris Wright

Much like last week’s game with Miami, this one looks like it could be a defensive-minded slug ‘em out deal. Duke is No. 20 in scoring defense at 17.7 points per game allowed, while UVA is No. 25 at 19.2. The game with the UM developed with both defenses piling up turnovers and big plays. The Hoos and Hurricanes each snared three interceptions, while Virginia carved out just enough difference in field position and fourth down stops to get a win.

So could this game come down to turnovers again? As mentioned in the introduction, that’s been a factor in the last two meetings with Duke. If both teams are turning it over like last week, though, the Devils may have the edge. They’ve turned eight takeaways into seven touchdowns this season. The Cavaliers have four touchdowns on their 11 takeaways.

On the other hand, if UVA takes care of the football on offense, could it get a game management type of win? In the four victories this season, that’s been part of the formula. The offense has extended drives on third down at a 56.3% or better conversion rate in three of the four wins (the 30% against Miami still beat the Hurricanes’ season numbers). The defense followed suit by holding opponents to a 36.4% conversion rate or worse on third down in the victories (the two losses saw Indiana and NCSU hit for 53.3% or better on third down). In other words, get on the field and move the ball or get off the field quickly on third down to win field position and eventually the game. Duke comes into the game ranked 61st in third down defense (37.89%) and 88th in third down offense (37.21%) so maybe that’s the formula to get a road win.

So do the Hoos get it done? I’m hesitant to say yes due to the weather forecast that projects a 70%+ chance of rain during the early part of the game and the last time Bryce Perkins and company faced wet weather at Indy, things didn’t go well. This won’t be as much rain, though, and I feel like Perkins is targeting a bounce-back performance after 3 INTs last week. VIRGINIA 24, DUKE 21. Season to date: 3-3.

Sabre Associate Editor Chris Horne

Virginia football has a chance to win every game remaining on its schedule. Conversely, the Hoos can lose any of their remaining games (except for maybe Liberty) if they don’t play well. The Cavaliers’ mental toughness will be tested this week with the program coming off its first win over a nationally ranked opponent since 2014 too.

Duke is a solid team. While the Blue Devils haven’t beaten any outstanding teams to date, they have taken care of business on the road against Northwestern, Baylor, and Georgia Tech. Duke joins Clemson and Florida as the only Power 5 teams to be 3-0 or better in true road games this season. The Blue Devil offense has experienced playmakers and their defense is solid and tough to score on.

I see this game being a close one. The Hoos remember what happened the second half of last season, though, and I think they’ll battle hard and come out with a win on the road. VIRGINIA 24, DUKE 21. Season to date: 3-3.