On Oct. 25 last season, the Virginia football team stood at 5-2 on the brink of ending the program’s six-year bowl drought. The Cavaliers got back to postseason play, but the victory against Georgia Tech that got them there was the lone win down the stretch. They went 0-2 in their first two chances to get bowl eligibility.
So is this year different? The Wahoos sit at 5-2 on Oct. 25 on the brink of ending the program’s 12-year drought for back-to-back bowl seasons. The last time UVA did that came in 2004 and 2005. Their first crack at securing the needed sixth win comes against North Carolina at Scott Stadium on Saturday at 12:20 p.m.
While the players and coaches certainly want to return to the postseason this time around, that’s far from the front of their minds at this point. Bowl play is sort of the minimum expectation under what the program calls its “New Standard” in year three of the Bronco Mendenhall era. In other words, it doesn’t sound like the team is feeling much pressure to get there this season.
Mendenhall, in fact, says this team is focused on improving and the task at hand each week. He’s not concerned about a late season swoon at this point.
“Last year’s certainly over, and I don’t see it nor has it really entered my mind as a point of reference,” Mendenhall said. “This is a different team, a different season. Our entire focus is on how we play well enough to win our next game. Our team certainly doesn’t feel – and in visiting with them [Monday morning], this isn’t to where one more is enough. They’re anxious to see how many and how strong they can finish. I think they’re very determined. I sense just more and more focus and intensity on helping our team continue to improve. So, yeah, they’re really in the moment right now I would say and very focused and dialed in on how to continue to improve.”
Some UVA fans, of course, get nervous with success. They’ve seen the bottom fall out, the other shoe drop, or some other proverbial letdown before. The media already labeled this as the so-called trap game thanks to North Carolina’s 1-5 record and Virginia’s emotional fuel spent the past two weeks to win as an underdog.
Mendenhall and the players, on the other hand, said they are in the moment. That’s really the only way to handle things for this program at this point in the resurrection project. Next opponent, next round of preparation, next chance to put up a win. If their mentality is truly locked into that mode right now, the next three weeks of home games could put the team and the program in a favorable position late in 2018.
Kris’ Keys To Winning
1. Be Explosive
What’s one thing that UNC opponents ECU, Pitt, Miami, Virginia Tech, and Syracuse have in common this season? All of those teams posted at least one rushing play of 24 yards and at least one receiving play of 33 yards. In fact, Carolina opponents have posted 13 rushing plays of 20+ yards this season; that includes some long ones from quarterbacks Ryan Willis (VT), Eric Dungey (Syracuse), and Holton Ahlers (ECU). Those three QBs all posted rushing touchdowns against the Heels. Opponents also have 19 passing plays of 20+ yards.
That’s 32 plays of 20+ yards allowed, which is tied for 61st nationally. That includes seven touchdown plays.
UVA is not necessarily well positioned to tack on to those totals. The offense comes into the game tied for 107th nationally with 27 plays in the 20+ category. With that said, the Hoos do have big scoring play potential and a dynamic weapon at the quarterback position, which has seemed to cause Carolina some trouble. Olamide Zaccheaus ripped off an 81-yard touchdown catch against the Heels last season, while Bryce Perkins has tallied 463 rushing yards with five rushing touchdowns this season. Getting either or both of those players free in space could pay big dividends this week.
2. Keep Up The Good Tackling
A recurring observation I’ve seen on the message boards lately has been how much Virginia’s tackling has improved over the last 2.5 seasons. Coach Mendenhall openly discussed how his team’s play didn’t sound right when it came to physical play and tackling in his first season, but this season that’s a whole new deal. UVA looks, sounds, and pursues like a football team that knows how to tackle.
That’s showing up in the statistics too. For the season, the Hoos have 11 different players with at least 15 tackles through seven games. But the key is there appears to be fewer yards occurring after contact. That too has some place in the statistics. The Hoos have allowed 79 plays this season of 10+ yards with 27 of 20+ yards. The latter is tied for 34th nationally. While that’s not a perfect approximation for yards after contact obviously, there certainly are some plays that could break free if tackling weren’t solid.
This will be important against North Carolina. The Tar Heels have two games with 500+ yards of offense this season, both in the last two outings. They also put up 486 against Pittsburgh before a turnover-filled game against Miami, giving them 486 or more in three of their last four games. They’re not afraid to throw quick hitters, a variety of screens, and perimeter runs at a defense. All of those types of plays put a lot of emphasis on pursuit, gap fits, and sure tackling in space. The past two weeks, Virginia has done very well with that defensively even without Jordan Mack in the lineup. The Hoos will be challenged to keep it up this week.
3. Have Another Good Day On Special Teams
Virginia and North Carolina both enter this game with their respective return units carrying a little momentum. UVA had a 37-yard kick return that set up a touchdown last week and has at least one return of 30 yards or more in three straight games. The Hoos also recorded 99 punt return yards that helped boost scoring too. UNC ripped off a 75-yard punt return for a touchdown at Syracuse one game after posting 51 punt return yards against Virginia Tech.
With field position playing such a big role for UVA as Greg Waters noted in his most recent grades, special teams could be a major factor in this one. The tricky part for the Hoos is that Carolina is solid in the coverage categories. The Heels are tied for 46th nationally by allowing 19.73 yards per kick return and tied for 18th nationally by allowing 4.0 yards per punt return. (UVA, by the way, is 60th in kick return defense at 20.64 yards per return and seventh in punt return defense at 2.8 yards per return.) Can someone among Joe Reed, Chuck Davis, and Tavares Kelly provide a big spark moment in the return game?
The other thing to monitor here are the tricks ahead of Halloween week. Larry Fedora is not afraid to throw things out there on the field and that includes special teams. It’s hard to forget, after all, the time he faked a punt out of his own end zone at Scott Stadium while coaching Southern Miss years ago. UVA needs to be prepared for a 1-5 team to try anything if it spots a possibility on film.
The Picks
Sabre Editor Kris Wright
The Virginia football team has pushed itself to a 5-2 record for the second straight season and this week, players have emphasized three things. 1. Getting back to a bowl is a goal. 2. That’s not the only goal, but they’ll take it one game at a time and see where the season takes them. 3. They remember how last season finished after a 5-2 start. Those three things tell me one important thing: this team is focused and as Coach Mendenhall said ‘in the moment’ right now. That bodes very well for the chances going forward, including this week.
The big thing is to keep up the defensive surge from the past two weeks to try to stay out of a shootout with a capable North Carolina offense. I think this defense, with all its variations causing issues for uncertain quarterbacks, is up to that task and the results will be fun for Family Weekend. VIRGINIA 31, UNC 20. Season to date: 4-3.
Sabre Associate Editor Chris Horne
This game could be a tricky one for Virginia. The Cavaliers are coming off two hard fought wins over Miami and Duke, while UNC enters Scott Stadium at 1-5. Don’t let North Carolina’s record fool you. This team has talent, especially on the offensive side of the ball, as they have posted consecutive outings of 500 yards or more.
The Cavaliers cannot let off the gas, so to speak, just because of UNC’s record. So far, though, this Virginia team has shown to be a mentally tough group. I think Saturday will be closer than some might think, but ultimately I like how Virginia is playing in all aspects and think the Hoos come away with a victory. VIRGINIA 28, UNC 20. Season to date: 4-3.
