Keys & Picks – Virginia Vs. Georgia Tech 2018

Virginia is 7-3 on the season.
Jordan Ellis and the Hoos will try to top Georgia Tech for the second straight year. ~ Kris Wright

When Virginia football coach Bronco Mendenhall addressed reporters Monday, he pointed out something that doesn’t get discussed nearly enough during Georgia Tech week. Well, other than the whole Georgia Tech game itself, since the message boards have zipped ahead to Virginia Tech a little more than a week from now. Fans want a shot at that streak-buster game really bad.

Anyway, back to the Jackets. Since the other Tech runs a unique offense for the ACC with its triple option or spread option scheme, that inevitably dominates conversations. How does a defense slow down that run-heavy attack that’s ranked No. 1 in the nation? This year’s version has churned out a school-record five 400+-yard games.

Mendenhall, whose team is battling a slew of injuries on defense, said Monday that line of thinking is too narrow in its focus. Playing against and being successful against option teams requires a lot more than the defense slowing down GT’s offense, he said.

“The last point I think I’ll make is when you play an option team you certainly have to score. It’s better if you’re able to maintain possession of the ball and score,” Mendenhall said. “So one of the biggest contributing factors for that game [against Navy\, if we’re talking about the postseason a year ago, was our inability to hold onto the ball, to move it with any effectiveness, time of possession and points. When and if you’re going to beat an option football team the complementary nature of how you play the game has to be in place. Can’t just be one side or the other. In that game we didn’t have a strong showing from any off our sides. But when you consider if you are going to have a model to beat an option football team, it has to be offense, defense and special teams. It cannot be one-sided in my opinion.”

With that in mind, special teams could be a critical piece of the puzzle this week. The Yellow Jackets have shown vulnerability on kickoff return defense and breakdowns there essentially cost them the South Florida game back in September. In that one, USF’s Terrence Horne returned two kicks for touchdowns (98 and 97 yards) and his team won 49-38. The Bulls ended up with 266 kickoff return yards in that game. Tech’s return yards allowed average, due in part to that one game, sits at 26.74 yards per return and ranks 128th out of 130 FBS teams. Even if you take out those 266 yards, however, GT has allowed 23.8 ypr and that’s still in the bottom 30 nationally.

Virginia’s Joe Reed, of course, took back the opening second half kickoff last week for a touchdown against Liberty. He’s now posted three kickoff return touchdowns of 90+ yards in his career. One of those came last season against GT when he took one 92 yards to the house. He had a 57-yard return in that game too. The week before against Pitt, he became the school’s all-time leader in kickoff return yards. Mendenhall said after the game last week that UVA had put in a lot of intensive work on that phase in practice. If that continues to carry forward this week, that could help the team’s chances.

Punter Lester Coleman and the punt return unit has upped its game in the second half of the season too, at least when it comes to pinning opponents with poor field position. That too, Mendenhall said in recent weeks, is something that received increased practice reps. Coleman played a big role in the bowl-clinching win against Georgia Tech a year ago. He punted eight times for an average of 46.0 yards and put four of those inside the 20-yard line. The Yellow Jackets come into the game ranked 83rd nationally in punt return average at 7.58 yards per return.

There are other areas to watch in this matchup, including whether UVA’s offense can score touchdowns and potentially hold the ball a little bit and whether an injury-challenged defense can slow down the run attack some during the game. Still, special teams and field position have played a role in nearly all of the Hoos’ seven wins to date and that seems like a critical factor again this week.

Kris’ Keys To Winning

1. Don’t Help GT’s Output With Miscues

This match features the nation’s 17th ranked scoring offense against the nation’s 17th ranked defense. Georgia Tech is tied with Washington State by scoring 37.6 points per game, while UVA is tied with Michigan State and Utah by allowing just 19.7 points per game. The Yellow Jackets kept up the scoring when injuries accelerated a two-quarterback plan, while the Hoos have held opponents in check despite injuries multiplying throughout the season defensively.

With that said, Tech appears to be healthy again at the QB spot while that’s far from true for the Cavalier defense. The only healthy defensive lineman with at least a full season of experience right now is Eli Hanback after UVA lost Mandy Alonso for the season in the Pitt game. Of course, the coaches have been scheming around defensive line depth all season anyway with a variety of 2-4-5 and other sets. That approach could be much tougher against the run-heavy option attack of Georgia Tech, though.

So, at least on paper, it looks like a tall order for Virginia’s defense to keep up the low scoring effort. If the Hoos are going to keep Georgia Tech’s total down, however, it’s imperative that the Yellow Jackets don’t get any help. Bryce Perkins threw an interception last week that set up Liberty for a touchdown and opponents have 39 points this season off turnovers. The challenge there is that GT has forced 23 turnovers in 10 games this season and that’s tied for sixth nationally. Plus, the Jackets have scored three defensive touchdowns on those turnovers, which is tied for the most in the ACC and 10th nationally. A year ago, linebacker Bruce Jordan-Swilling returned a Cavalier interception 27 yards for a touchdown and he set up another touchdown with a forced fumble and fumble recovery.

2. Dig Deep In The Trenches

The defensive line will be faced with the challenge of holding up through injuries, but as Mendenhall said earlier this week, teams need to play complementary football to have the best chance of success against option opponents. Special teams got the mention in the introduction. The other item of importance when it comes to field position and playing keep away in the time of possession battle is for the offense to move the chains.

For the Cavaliers to execute that part of the equation, the offensive line is going to need to lock in and help the team stay ahead of schedule on first and second down. While Jordan Ellis did get past the 100-yard rushing mark against Liberty, UVA has not had much consistency on inside runs in recent weeks. Plus, Pittsburgh made Bryce Perkins uncomfortable in the pocket with some of its pressure. The Hoos are most dangerous when the offensive line can get Ellis and the running game established first, which sets up Perkins to play off of that in both the running and passing attack.

Georgia Tech starts three seniors on the defensive line so this will not be an easy test. Desmond Branch, Kyle Cerge-Henderson, and Anree Saint-Amour have combined for 58 starts and have played in 110 games at Tech. This is the first all-senior starting defensive line for the Jackets since 1989. The Hoos must account for Saint-Amour, in particular, because he’s piled up 10.5 tackles for loss with four sacks and eight quarterback hurries this season. He’s the type of player that can disrupt the down-and-distance schedule and make ball control game plans go by the wayside. Plus, Saint-Amour and Branch both have snared interceptions this season, the first time that two defensive linemen have picks in the same season in Paul Johnson’s tenure. Saint-Amour took his back for a touchdown.

3. Finish

After last season’s fast start and eventual bowl return, the Cavaliers fizzled down the stretch. They won just once after a 5-1 start and had zero victories after clinching a bowl bid. That led to the simple offseason mantra of ‘finish’ within the program. This season, UVA started 6-2 and added a win last week after locking up a bowl spot. Still, there are at least three more chances to add to the win total and if the team goes 1-3 after reaching the bowl plateau to close out the regular season, it will be disappointing.

Beyond that, there’s the ‘finish’ theme within this week’s game. Georgia Tech’s offense will be tough to stop. The Jackets have scored touchdowns on 43% of their possessions this season, good enough for No. 4 nationally behind only Oklahoma, Central Florida, and Alabama. If the defense can finish off drives by getting off the field or by at least holding Tech to field goals, that would boost the chances of a win. The Yellow Jackets rank 20th nationally in third down conversions (46.22%) and are tied for 76th nationally in fourth down conversions (52.38%) and GT converts 72.55% of its red zone trips into touchdowns too (18th nationally). So there’s a challenge there.

On the other side of the ball, Virginia’s offense needs to finish off its drives with touchdowns too. UVA is 115th nationally in red zone touchdown % at 52.50%, though some of that is mitigated by the explosive scoring plays often provided outside the red zone by Perkins, Olamide Zaccheaus, and company. Georgia Tech is among the nation’s top third in preventing long plays from scrimmage, but the defense isn’t great at stopping opponents at the end of drives either. The Jackets are tied for 101st nationally in red zone touchdown percentage allowed at 70.00%. If the Cavaliers can get the chains moving and then finish off drives, a shot at win No. 8 could be there.

The Picks

Sabre Editor Kris Wright

Virginia has risen to the occasion this season to secure the program’s first winning record since 2011. In the span of seven days, the Hoos will have a chance to add to the total. Will they get their eighth win this week in Atlanta? It’s going to be tough. The Yellow Jackets have won their last four home games against the Cavaliers by an average score of 39-17. They’ve won four of the last six matchups in the series overall too. The last time GT had consecutive losses to Virginia came back in 2007-08.

I don’t like how well the Jackets have played lately either. They’ve won five of their last six while scoring 38 or more points four times and while the scheduled opponents in that stretch haven’t been daunting, it’s still a solid streak. I don’t like the match-up here either considering the injuries on defense and GT’s experience on the defensive line. When UVA has struggled, an opposing DL playing well has been part of the story. Unfortunately, I don’t think it adds up to a win for the Hoos. GEORGIA TECH 30, VIRGINIA 21. Season to date: 6-4.

Sabre Associate Editor Chris Horne

Virginia heads to Atlanta with 7-win season and bowl eligibility crossed off its list of goals for the 2018 season. Without question, the Cavaliers can beat Georgia Tech. Aside from five big-play touchdowns, Bronco Mendenhall’s previous two Cavalier defenses have played Paul Johnson’s triple-option well. The Cavalier offense has the potential to control the football and put up points, and Virginia’s special teams are looking good, too.

What worries me here are the injuries. Mandy Alonso, who had a good game against Tech last year, is out, leaving Eli Hanback as easily the most consistent defensive lineman on the roster. But how will the others hold up in terms of maintaining their responsibilities against the option? Also, how banged up are Virginia’s safeties? These are two serious questions.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see UVA get the road win here, but the injury concerns plus a hot Georgia Tech team (winners of three straight) have led me to pick the Yellow Jackets. GEORGIA TECH 28, VIRGINIA 24. Season to date: 6-4.

1 Responses You are logged in as Test

  1. Kris & Chris-

    I have to agree with you both as to who wins this game. I am more confident against Virginia Tech that Georgia Tech

    I also want to say that I can now understand why Bronco’s defense is giving up so many yards rushing and runs over 20 yards…we are just too thin on our DL and until that gets addressed, it will be difficult for us to get to the next level which is competing for a division and conference championship.

    Walt

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