Keys & Picks: Virginia Vs. Florida State 2019

Virginia is 2-0 this season.
Virginia’s defense will try to slow down a high-scoring Florida State offense. ~ Kris Wright

If the trends from the first two weeks hold, there might be a lot of points scored at Scott Stadium on Saturday. After all, Virginia and Florida State enter this week on the top 40 charts in scoring offense. UVA has scored 41.0 points per game to rank 30th nationally, while FSU has averaged 38.0 to tie for 38th.

Ultimately, that’s what still makes the Seminoles scary despite a shaky 1-1 start with an overtime win in their first two games. They’ve got enough firepower among the skill positions to rip off scoring plays quickly and they play a hurry-up tempo style as well. Between running back Cam Akers and receiver Tamorrion Terry, Florida State has two pro caliber weapons to help generate offense. FSU scored 31 points in a loss to Boise State and 45 points in an overtime win against Louisiana-Monroe

It certainly got Cavalier coach Bronco Mendenhall’s attention in preparation.

“When I mention the speed and tempo versus Florida State, I think you have to put it in two different categories,” Mendenhall said. “It’s the number of plays they run and how fast they run them, but their skill players in particular, from an exceptional running back to a fleet of receivers, that on any given play they can go the whole way. The number of balls that go down field, I’m not sure I’ve seen as many in teams I’ve prepared for. And so, they’re certainly talented enough at every position. Well, you’ve already seen the points they put up. That’s not an accident. So, tempo and speed apply to not only the rate of plays but who is out there running the plays.”

Virginia, meanwhile, scored more than 50 points for the first time since whipping Temple, 51-3, back in 2005 with its 52-17 victory against William & Mary. That came on the heels of a 30-point outing in a win at Pittsburgh. The 82 combined points are the most in the first two weeks of a season since 2004 when that team posted 100 even against Temple and UNC in a pair of wins.

In fact, that’s the second biggest total of any two-game span so far in the Mendenhall era. The previous best was an 83-point two-fer against Central Michigan and Duke in 2016.

With points rolling up for both teams the first two weeks, if either defense can reduce the flow in this one, it could lead to the win. The Cavaliers appear to be better positioned for that through two games. They’re allowing 15.5 points per game to tie for 28th nationally, which is on par with last season’s 21st place finish at 20.1 points per game allowed. The Seminoles, on the other hand, have not been as stingy of late. Last season, they gave up 31.5 points per game to rank 90th in the country and they’ve 40.0 points per game so far in 2019 to tie for 121st.

That’s the backdrop for the Keys & Picks.

Kris’ Keys To Winning

1. Close down space.

Florida State’s approach offensively includes concepts to spread out a defense and put playmakers in space. When those playmakers are Cam Akers, Tamorrion Terry, and the like, space can be a dangerous thing. Akers is out of the gates with back-to-back 100-yard rushing games and has passed 2,000 rushing yards for his career with 16 touchdowns to boot. Terry has averaged 20.0 yards per catch for his career, which includes three touchdowns of at least 70 yards. Overall, he’s closing in on a 1,000 career receiving yards with 9 touchdowns.

The Seminoles will throw a variety of screens to the edges or even mix in the traditional style running back screen just to get the ball into space with potential blockers. They also have the defense spread out for read-option handoffs with gaps exposed for the running back. Akers is good at bouncing some of those carries to the perimeter to gash defenses.

That all adds up to pressure on the defense to do the fundamentals well play after play (and remember, FSU wants to run a lot of them!). That means setting the edge on screens and bounce-out runs, maintaining run fits, ball pursuit by multiple defenders, and wrapping up on tackles to name a few. That approach can eliminate some of the space the offense is trying to create.

2. Third down for control.

FSU’s offense has put up a lot of points over the first two weeks and part of the plan to create those points comes from stressing the defense with tempo. The Seminoles ran 152 plays the last two weeks. Of course, that also puts a lot of pressure on their own defense and that has led to some extended time on the field for that unit. The D has faced 187 plays the last two weeks.

One way to counter State’s tempo is to keep that offense off the field altogether. To do that, UVA will need to put together sustained drives on offense. That could mean third down becomes an important strategic battleground. The Cavaliers enter the game tied for No. 16 nationally in third down conversion offense. They’ve converted 55.17% of their third down chances. On the other side of the coin, FSU has struggled on third down. That defense has allowed a 47.06% conversion rate on third downs so far this season, which is tied for 109th nationally.

Continuing that trend this week could give Virginia control of the tempo and the rhythm of the game.

3. Mix it up.

Florida State sophomore quarterback James Blackman is the fifth QB in program history to pass for at least three touchdown passes in four straight starts. He could tie the school record of five straight games this week. He’s tallied 609 yards passing with a 72.6% completion percentage with 6 touchdowns in the first two games this season.

The Seminoles, however, may have protection issues. They’ve allowed 6 sacks in two games, which is tied for 101st nationally. Blackman’s also thrown 2 interceptions.

Virginia can take advantage of that potentially. The Cavaliers have an experienced defense this season and that allows the coaches to dial up some different looks if they like. That could be secondary blitzes like the ones that were successful at Pitt in the opener, twists up front with the linebackers and linemen, or other concepts. UVA can do those things out of different formations too, including the ability to counter some of FSU’s spread looks with a 2-4-5 formation that allows maximum flexibility.

The Picks

Sabre Editor Kris Wright

The Virginia football team is 2-0 for the first time under Bronco Mendenhall. The Hoos have a shot for their first 3-0 start since the 2005 team won three in a row to open the year. A large crowd is expected on hand with guesses of at least 55,000 flying around the message boards and beyond with some calling for a potential capacity crowd of 61,500. That’s a lot of hype swirling in the air around Charlottesville. Throw in the fact that its Florida State, a name program with a National Championship to its name this decade, and the atmosphere is a step up for a home game in recent years.

A loss in this potential attention-grabbing game could slow the momentum among the fan base. This the bandwagon-building phase that all rejuvenation efforts go through and if the team falters, that could lose some of the more casual supporters. So can the program handle it?

The answer comes down to Virginia’s defense in my opinion. If the speed deficit of years gone by with FSU has narrowed and if the Hoos can handle the tempo, the D has the chance to set the tone in a major way Saturday. If the Cavaliers can get that offense off the field fast without giving up points, it tilts the scales heavily in UVA’s favor. I think they’re up to the task and I think the Wahoos keep up their winning ways. VIRGINIA 38, FLORIDA STATE 27. Season to date: 2-0.

Sabre Associate Editor Chris Horne

Florida State went 5-7 last season and if it were not for a missed extra point could be 0-2 to start this season. However, this year’s team has shown explosive ability on offense led by running back Cam Akers and quality play by sophomore quarterback James Blackman and his receivers, which include an All-ACC preseason pick in Tamorrion Terry.

Defensively, the Seminoles have given up a lot of yards but still feature fast, talented athletes. Florida State is still trying to find consistency from start to finish, while Virginia has looked good in that department in wins at Pitt and at home versus William & Mary. I think this game will be tougher than some UVA fans think because of the FSU offense, but ultimately I think the home field advantage (I do think the fans will turn out) helps push the Hoos to a win and a 3-0 start to the 2019 season. VIRGINIA 34, FLORIDA STATE 27. Season to date: 2-0

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