The Virginia football team accomplished a lot before its bye week on the calendar last week. The Hoos returned to the top 25 and won as a nationally ranked team. They nabbed two ACC wins to take the Coastal Division lead. That all added up to a 4-1 start.
Just before the bye week, however, Virginia saw a halftime lead against then No. 10 Notre Dame evaporate into a 35-20 loss. That raised some question marks about the team’s potential moving forward.
Still, two of the team’s main goals are still squarely in play: beat Virginia Tech and win the Coastal Division. The chance for one of those will have to wait until season’s, of course, but the race for the division title picks up steam for UVA starting this week. The Hoos only have one non-conference game left and the next five weeks come against ACC teams.
That includes the season’s most challenging stretch of road games. Virginia plays three of its next four games on the road (and it’s a four in five games span if you include ND), starting with the trip to Miami for Friday night’s showdown. In a division that has a lot of back-and-forth results at times, that’s a tough road ahead. If the Cavaliers are going to end up on top of the Coastal, they’re going to have to win away from Charlottesville. The first chance for that comes this week.
“Our style to this point and what has emerged over last season and this season seems to be less way up and way down, but it’s not far removed if it is. And the rest of the season will show if it is,” UVA coach Bronco Mendenhall said. “We certainly are paying attention. And I framed it to my team because the bye week was a time to do that. Where we had five games that were meaningful and mattered and I was happy with the start of our season. The bye week now all that did is now frame much like you’re at a carnival going into one of the rides, now here is the Coastal ride. And we’re going right into five straight Coastal games, and those are more meaningful and they are more impactful. I think that’s why we’re paying attention to what – and holy cow, you never know what’s going to happen when you’re on that ride.”
Kris’ Keys To Winning
1. Protect
The last time we saw UVA in action at Notre Dame, the offense gave up eight sacks and committed five turnovers. The offensive line had all kinds of trouble against a fairly standard four-man rush from the Irish. It all added up to a rough second half, a road loss, and two weeks of wondering whether ND served up a blueprint on how to pester Bryce Perkins and take down the Hoos.
Miami’s defense has the ability to create similar havoc. The Hurricanes have 13 sacks and 38 total tackles for loss. They’ve snagged eight turnovers. Since introducing the celebratory ‘turnover chain’ in 2017, the defense has forced an average of 2.06 turnovers per game.
This is a vanilla key, but if Virginia can’t do the basics – protect the quarterback and protect the football – everything else may not matter.
2. Prevent Big Play Touchdowns
Miami’s offense has been labeled as inconsistent, which showed against Virginia Tech with only a hail mary touchdown in the first half and then 28 points in the second half. Still, the Hurricanes remain a big play scoring threat. Running back DeeJay Dallas broke through for a 62-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter last week, for example, and the Canes scored on another 25-yard pass too (plus, the hail mary was a 38-yarder). They have seven touchdowns of 25+ yards this season, including three 50+ yard TD runs from Dallas.
If a defense can take those away, it goes a long way to reining in Miami’s offense overall. That’s something UVA did in last season’s win against the Hurricanes in Charlottesville, thanks in part to the Bryce Hall sprint-and-save play that remains eye-popping a year later. The Hoos won 16-13.
Reducing opponents’ explosive scoring touchdowns is an area that the defense made huge strides in last year and allowing 25+ yard touchdowns had vanished until the last two games. In fact, Virginia’s D had put together seven straight games without giving up a long touchdown play from the end of last season through the FSU win at home. ODU and Notre Dame, however, broke the trend. The Monarchs scored on a 47-yard pass play due in part to a missed tackle and ND posted a 30-yard touchdown run against a tiring defense in the fourth quarter.
This feels like an important piece of the puzzle this week as the Cavaliers go for a road win.
3. Perplex & Puzzle
Virginia has had two weeks to prepare for this important road trip in the ACC Coastal Division race. Much of that time was spent on addressing self-scout discoveries, but there was also time to put together a plan for the Hurricanes.
Offensively, Miami is ranked dead last at the FBS level in sacks allowed. The Canes have allowed 25 sacks in just five games. Their offensive line hasn’t been able to keep the quarterbacks clean. UVA counters with one of the nation’s best pass-rushing defenses. The Hoos have 24 sacks (4.8 per game) to rank sixth nationally. Throw in the fact that there are a lot of experienced defenders out there and the coaches can dial up different looks and twists to confuse an offensive line that’s already struggling.
Defensively, Hurricane coach Manny Diaz announced this week that he would be getting more involved with the defense. He was the Miami Defensive Coordinator before taking over as head coach. Some of the reports coming through Miami area media have indicated communication issues among the defenders and mistakes with execution. Considering that UVA has had some protection issues and hasn’t established a running game, it may be difficult to dial up anything too creative or that takes too long to develop. Instead, that could mean simply running some bread-and-butter plays out of different formations or using basic mesh routes to force defensive exchanges or something else. Regardless, it’s important for the Virginia offense to show some things to challenge Miami’s reads and communication.
The Picks
Sabre Editor Kris Wright
I think this week’s game is hard to pick. Miami has some tools that can cause problems for Virginia. The defense can be disruptive and cause turnovers. The pass rush has the ability to get there quickly. Offensively, there’s explosive play capability and that’s something that can decide what looks like a defensive battle otherwise. The Hurricanes are just inconsistent enough, however, for UVA to control the terms and pace of play. That’s essentially what happened a year ago.
There are other things at play here. UVA owns a 5-13 road record under Bronco Mendenhall on the road. Even if you throw out the 2016 season that featured a 1-5 road mark, the record still sits at 4-8. The Hoos are 1-1 this season, but the program still needs to prove that the turnaround travels. Miami, meanwhile, is playing through a five-game homestand that’s the longest for the U since 1987. Virginia is 2-5 all-time at Miami. And the Hurricanes should be in desperation mode after starting 0-2 in league play. Any hopes they have of being a factor in the division race likely require running the ACC table.
You’ve got a team on paper that can give Virginia trouble. You’ve got road history pushing back in UVA’s face. And you’ve got the Hurricanes in need of a win that could springboard them forward this season. That’s a lot for the Cavaliers to overcome. Still, Miami hasn’t been very good with a 2-3 record despite playing all but one game in the state of Florida so far. The Canes aren’t consistent and they apparently have some turmoil with Manny Diaz deciding to change his role in a public way.
Is Miami a mess? Maybe. I think they’ll have their act together for an important game. The difference, though, will be execution and I expect UVA to be on the plus side there after a bye week, while the Hurricanes are shuffling quarterbacks and potentially defensive play-calling duties. I think the short week gives the Hoos an edge late and they find a way. VIRGINIA 23, MIAMI 20. Season to date: 4-1.
Sabre Associate Editor Chris Horne
Coming off a bye week Virginia football defeated Miami, 16-13, in Charlottesville last season. Quarterback Bryce Perkins was contained by the Hurricane defense in Scott Stadium; however, Jordan Ellis rushed for 86 yards while the Cavalier defense held down the Miami offense and the home team pulled out a grinder of a win.
This year’s matchup in Miami pits two programs coming off of two nightmarish halves of football. Virginia had four second-half turnovers on its way to blowing a 17-14 halftime lead at Notre Dame, ultimately falling to the Irish 35-20 prior to last week’s bye. Turnovers cost Miami in last Saturday’s home matchup with Virginia Tech. The Hurricanes found themselves trailing 28-0 in the first half, rallied, and then fell to the Hokies 42-35.
Miami’s defense, while not as potent thus far as last year’s unit, will challenge a Virginia offensive line that is very much a question mark. The Hurricanes are averaging 2.6 sacks per game and holding opponents to 78.4 yards rushing per game. Miami’s pass defense wasn’t very good against Virginia Tech, so UVA should be able to have success through the air … provided Perkins has protection and Perkins makes good decisions. Establishing some semblance of a run offense will be important, though, to keep Miami off balance.
Defensively, Virginia, which is averaging 4.8 sacks per game, needs to harass N’Kosi Perry. Perry tossed five touchdowns and had only one interception while almost leading the Hurricanes to a come-from-behind win over Virginia Tech. His coach says he has developed a lot since last season, when he struggled with consistency (50.8 completion percentage and six picks – two versus UVA – in 191 attempts). UVA needs to put that to the test by getting consistent pressure and forcing quick decision-making while also holding down a capable Hurricane rushing offense led by DeeJay Dallas (7.2 YPC, three touchdown runs of over 50 yards).
There are certainly questions on both sides, which is what makes this pick a tough one. UVA is seeking to capture the Coastal Division title for the first time ever, but to do it the Cavaliers will have to clean up the turnovers – the Hoos have committed 11 turnovers this season, one of the worst marks in the nation – and turn things around on the offensive line. Bronco Mendenhall is 2-1 after bye weeks at UVA. I’m guessing he’ll right the ship enough to get by a Miami team that is almost in must-win position in the conference, but it’ll be close. VIRGINIA 21, MIAMI 20. Season to date: 4-1.
