Keys & Picks: Virginia Vs. Duke 2019

Virginia is undefeated at home this season.
PK Kier and the Hoos hope to fend off Duke this weekend. ~ Kris Wright

Virginia returns to Scott Stadium for the only time in October this Saturday when Duke comes to town. Kickoff for what has shaped up to be a key ACC Coastal Division showdown is set for 3:30 p.m. Both teams enter the contest with 2-1 league records in a tie with North Carolina at the top of the standings.

After back-to-back road games and back-to-back losses, the Hoos will be happy to be back home. In UVA coach Bronco Mendenhall’s tenure, that’s where 15 of the 20 wins have occurred after all and the Cavaliers need to get back on track if they’re going to stay in the Coastal Division race. Three wins this year with an ACC victory against Florida State have happened at Scott Stadium. Of course, Duke may not be the ideal opponent in that sense. From the start of the 2017 season, Duke has won eight road games with two already in 2019.

So far, Virginia has held the advantage in this series under Mendenhall. He’s won all three meetings since taking over at UVA and that’s built the series streak to four straight games after Mike London won the matchup in his final season. To keep that string going, the Wahoos likely will need to show up on both sides of the ball. Duke is one of just three ACC teams ranked in the top six of the league in both scoring offense and scoring defense. The Devils are fourth by scoring 34.2 points per game and sixth by allowing 23.2 points per game.

Mendenhall certainly has respect for the team coming to Charlottesville this weekend.

“They’re coached by David Cutcliffe. Their schemes are well thought out. Execution is on point. They maximize the use of existing personnel. They have a strong culture. He’s doing something very unique at a place that has a lot of reasons to say that it couldn’t be done. He’s doing it anyway,” Mendenhall said. “So I have a lot of respect for him. The next quarterback is in after all the accolades for their previous quarterback who was a first-round pick. Doesn’t appear to be much drop-off. While their offense does not look identical and he’s improvised and innovated in a way that’s maximizing their current personnel. So I would say that their season and our season are very similar. The way they’re playing is very similar. Their culture is vibrant and very similar. It lines up to be a really challenging game.”

Kris’ Keys To Winning

1. Momentum Plays

Virginia has lost two straight games despite being in the lead or within a single touchdown of the lead late in the third quarter at both Notre Dame and Miami. Obviously many things contributed to those chances getting away, but one part of the losses came down to huge swing plays. The Irish and Hurricanes took advantage. The Hoos did not.

At Notre Dame, fumbles set up two touchdowns. One of those was a ND fumble return for touchdown in the final two minutes of the third quarter that grew the lead to 28-17 at the time. On the flipside, Virginia opened the second half with a clutch onsides kick call and recovery … but produced no points. In Miami, UVA had several chances to claim the lead after trailing 7-0 early but it couldn’t come through. On one possession, a fumble when a drive was mounting stopped things short. Later, a Joe Reed kickoff return covered 72 yards right after the Cavalier defense held Miami to a field goal. With the deficit at 10-6 and prime field position, Virginia gained 0 yards and settled for a field goal. The Hoos didn’t score again.

Duke, meanwhile, has been making a living lately out of string together momentum. Over the last five games, the Blue Devils have scoring runs of 24, 34, 31, 27, and 38 points. Against Georgia Tech last week, Duke blocked a punt for the second time this year and returned it 14 yards for a touchdown. The Blue Devils have also recovered an onsides kick this year.

It’s important for UVA to control the overall rhythm of the game at home, but taking advantage of key chances while also preventing Duke from getting streaky could be huge in the outcome.

2. Pressure, But Contain

This game presents a classic strength on strength matchup. Virginia enters the game with 27 sacks, which is tied for second nationally. That rate has slowed a bit the last two outings, but the Hoos are still dangerous with their pressure. Duke counters with an offense that has allowed just 6 sacks all year, which is tied for 10th nationally. Of note, in one of the Devils’ two losses, Pittsburgh generated half of those sacks with 3 in the game. Pitt is also tied for second nationally in sacks.

Even if UVA can’t get Quentin Harris down for sacks, the defense still needs to provide pressure. Duke likes to spread the ball around and attack varying areas of the field. Limiting Harris’ time will help reduce the options. On the other hand, pressure without containment could be troublesome because Harris is very good on the ground with 367 yards over the last five games. He has scored a rushing touchdown in four of the last five games. Miami’s N’Kosi Perry slipped free for a rushing touchdown last week and that was enough to get the Hurricanes the win.

3. Win Third Down

Virginia and Duke both have posted decent numbers on third down this season. The Blue Devils rank third in the ACC and 44th nationally by converting 42.6% of their third downs, while the Cavaliers rank fifth in the ACC and 48th nationally with a 41.7% conversion rate on third down. Duke is doing a better job of turning those sustained drives into points of late; its offense has scored 30-plus points in five straight games for the first time since 1989. UVA, meanwhile, is coming off back-to-back games with 29 combined points.

The key here will be which defense can wrestle control away on third down most consistently. Duke is 54th nationally with a 36.05% rate allowed, while Virginia is 26th with a 32.14% rate allowed. If the Hoos can get the Devils off the field and give the offense some field position too, maybe that will help get the scoreboard back on track for UVA. Plus, that would prevent the momentum that Duke’s been building so well in its recent games.

The Picks

Sabre Editor Kris Wright

The last two outings have spooked Virginia fans. Or, perhaps more accurately, the last six quarters. Rightfully so. The Hoos went from leading on the road at then No. 10 Notre Dame at halftime to a turnover-prone, low-scoring team for the next game and a half. The defense held its own during that period of time, but didn’t do enough to turn the games with takeaways. Special teams have been mostly solid, though another missed field goal and the injury to Bryce Hall on the punt return team clouded things significantly.

So here we are. The Cavaliers have publicly stayed the course, saying that their season goals are still very much in play: beat Virginia Tech, win the Coastal Division, and win a bowl game. The middle of those three goals is the most pressing concern. UVA has a win over Pitt, one of the division’s four one-loss teams but it has head-to-head meetings remaining with Duke and UNC. That makes this weekend’s game a critical one from that standpoint.

The question in play: are the Hoos spooked too? Between the offense’s struggles, two straight losses, and Hall’s injury, adversity is here for this year’s team. If they’re ready to handle it, they’ll show up with the plays needed to get an important home win this weekend. If the team is rattled, a third straight loss could derail the season and its goals quickly.

With that said, this matchup on paper is one that is fairly even but one that Virginia should be able to handle at home. I think facing a middle-of-the-road run defense (Duke is 48th nationally) that isn’t dominant in one particular area will help the offensive line and Bryce Perkins gain some rhythm and confidence. The rest feeds from there this week and the Hoos get it done. VIRGINIA 30, DUKE 24. Season to date: 4-2.

Sabre Associate Editor Chris Horne

Virginia has beaten Duke in all three meetings in the Bronco Mendenhall era. However, when the two programs meet in Scott Stadium on Saturday, I’d argue that the Blue Devils have the edge in the confidence category.

Duke suffered a misstep at home versus Pittsburgh on Oct. 6, falling short at home 33-30, but destroyed Virginia Tech on the road the week before and dispatched Georgia Tech at home last week. The Blue Devils are playing with a lot of confidence on both sides of the ball, and after the big win at Virginia Tech I don’t expect they’ll be intimidated this Saturday in Charlottesville.

UVA, meanwhile, is struggling on offense in several areas. The Hoos have failed to score a touchdown in the last six quarters, Bryce Perkins has taken a beating, and the run game remains non-existent. Virginia is stuck in neutral on offense, and if the Cavaliers want to capture the Coastal they need to get things going. Defensively, the Hoos will be playing a full game without Bryce Hall for the first time. How will the defense look with Hall out?

If Virginia can get the offense going, a win is easily within reach. After all, I still expect the defense to be a very formidable one even with Hall sidelined. At this point though I think Duke is playing a better brand of football and they are confident, so I’m picking the Blue Devils in a close one. DUKE 23, VIRGINIA 20. Season to date: 4-2.

1 Responses You are logged in as Test

Comments are closed.