Keys & Picks: Virginia At Louisville 2019

The Virginia football team heads to Louisville on Saturday for one of its final road games of the season. In tow will be one of the nation’s best defenses.

The Cavaliers rank in the top 25 for run defense, pass defense, total defense, and scoring defense. They allow 270.3 yards per game, which is tied for 8th nationally. That breaks down to 96.0 yards rushing allowed per game, which ranks 14th, and 174.3 yards passing allowed per game, which ranks 12th. The Hoos have allowed 19.7 points per game, which is tied for 24th in the country.

To keep those numbers among the nation’s elite this weekend, UVA will have to deal with a Louisville offense that’s using two quarterbacks. The Cardinals have played both Micale Cunningham and Evan Conley in multiple games this season. Cunningham has appeared in six games with 879 yards passing, 7 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions plus 216 yards and 3 touchdowns rushing. Conley has appeared in four games with 466 yards passing, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions plus 91 yards and 1 touchdown rushing.

Virginia coach Bronco Mendenhall said with limited preparation time from in a week, the defense generally has to focus on Louisville’s best offensive concepts and successful plays rather than try to figure out who might play the most snaps.

“I think there’s not enough time to truly prepare for both,” Mendenhall said. “You have to look at what they’ve done well, what concepts really work, and then treat both quarterbacks like they are the starter. … Otherwise you don’t have enough time and the plan becomes too diluted. I wouldn’t see them altering anything significantly because they’re having so much success offensively anyway. And so I would think both quarterbacks will play and we’ll do our best to say they’re both a single quarterback.”

Indeed, the two-quarterback approach hasn’t hurt the Cardinals in the scoring column. They’re averaging 33.4 points per game, which is tied for 40th nationally.

“If it takes both then we will play both of them. There hasn’t really been one that jumps out over the other and they have both done a lot of really great things,” Louisville coach Scott Satterfield said. “We have needed both in our wins this year so I would suspect we will need both throughout the rest of the season. Really, we have those two and that is all we have. Whoever is playing the best, that is who we will play.”
With that in mind, let’s look at the Keys & Picks.

Kris’ Keys To Winning

1. Stop The Run

One big key to Virginia’s defensive prowess this season has been stopping the run. As noted above, the Hoos rank 14th nationally by allowing just 96 yards rushing per game. That’s part of a major three-year trend reversal. After giving up 199.3 rushing yards per game in 2017 to rank 102nd nationally, UVA improved to 147.5 rushing yards allowed per game in 2018 to rank 47th.

So far this season, Virginia has held five of seven opponents to less than 100 yards rushing. That’s going to get a test this week with a run-heavy Louisville team at home. The Cards rank 24th nationally (tie) with an average of 216.86 rushing yards per game. Of late, running back Javian Hawkins is sparking the attack at home where he has three straight 100-yard games at Cardinal Stadium (four total). Hawkins is up to 751 rushing yards on the season, while averaging 6.7 yards per carry at home with two touchdowns.

With that said, Louisville’s conference losses have come when the opposing team has slowed the rushing attack. Last week, Clemson held the Cards to 156 yards rushing. Earlier this season, Florida State allowed just 124. In its two conference losses, Louisville has averaged just 140.0 yards rushing.

2. Limit Explosive Plays

The Cardinals use their running game to set up big plays and that’s how they push up their point total. They’ve posted 42 plays of 20+ yards this season with 26 passing plays among them. Louisville’s top four receivers all average more than 15.0 yards per reception. Seth Dawkins leads that group at 20.2 yards per catch and he’s fifth in the nation with three catches of 50+ yards.

Last week, Duke didn’t have much success on offense against Virginia but it did get a pass play over the defense for a 36-yard touchdown in the third quarter. The Cardinals have the luxury of seeing the film from the game that was the Cavaliers’ first without All-American corner Bryce Hall and they’ll try to create more situations like that Devil pass play.

Here’s the key: can Virginia stop the run, keep bringing pressure, and limit Louisville’s big plays through the air? If the answer all around is yes, then the Cards will have trouble sustaining offense. That could lead to some three-and-outs too and UVA’s defense is currently forcing 4.85 three-and-outs per game (41% of opponent drives have ended that way).

3. No Interceptions

After throwing 9 interceptions in all of 2018, Virginia quarterback Bryce Perkins has tossed 7 picks in 7 games so far in 2019. That included an interception in the end zone last week against Duke that kept points off the board. Of note, however, is the fact that 7 of Perkins’ 9 interceptions in 2018 came in the first 6 games and he tossed just a pair the rest of the way. In other words, the early part of the season has followed the same pattern so can Perkins duplicate his back-half improvement from a year ago?

Against a Louisville defense that is vulnerable and allowing 33.4 points per game (tied for 109th among the 130 FBS teams), it’s important to take care of the football because if you do, there are likely points available on many possessions. The Cardinals, however, have been picking the ball off the last three games. After getting no picks the first four games, they have 5 INTs in the last three. That includes back-to-back games with 2 interceptions.

One of Louisville’s paths to an upset this week is to force those types of turnovers.

The Picks

Sabre Editor Kris Wright

The theme of the week quickly has become Virginia’s lack of success on the road so far in the Bronco Mendenhall era. That makes sense after UVA lost two straight road games at Notre Dame and Miami before looking a lot better in a home win against Duke. The Hoos now have to head back out of the state for two straight games, beginning with this week’s trip to Louisville. Can they start to turn the trend on the road? The program has a 5-14 road record to date in Mendenhall’s tenure. Here’s the thing. This doesn’t look like a daunting road challenge. Louisville has lost seven of its last 10 home games in ACC play.

So with that in mind, there are two other things to consider. First, Louisville’s wins this season have all been high-scoring affairs with totals of 42, 38, 41, and 62 points. That included consecutive weeks with 40+ points against ACC opponents Boston College and Wake Forest. I just don’t think they’re going to get to 38+ against this Virginia defense, though. That means if UVA’s offense can get going, this should head to the win column. That’s where the other thing comes into play – the weather. It might be a rainy day in Louisville. The Hoos and Bryce Perkins didn’t play well in the rain last season. That’s a small sample size, but at least enough to cause a little hesitation.

Ultimately, however, Virginia is the better team here. I suspect the Hoos are hearing the road challenge message loud and clear. Plus, they regained full control of the Coastal Division standings last week. I think that all adds up to a focused performance and a big win. VIRGINIA 33, LOUISVILLE 20. Season To Date: 5-2.

Sabre Associate Editor Chris Horne

Louisville, the media’s pick to finish last in the ACC’s Atlantic Division in 2019, has surpassed expectations in Scott Satterfield’s first year as Cardinal head coach. The former Appalachian State head coach has guided his new team to a 4-3 record that includes a 2-2 mark in the ACC. One of those conference losses came last week to Clemson, though Louisville trailed by only 14 (17-3) until the Tigers started pulling away late in the third quarter.

Louisville features a dynamic and balanced offense that ranks No. 27 in the nation. The Cardinals have shown big-play ability, something Virginia will have to limit. The Cavalier defense, ranked No. 8 in the nation in total defense, has played well on the road this season despite UVA’s 1-2 road record. In matchups against Clemson (No. 5 defense) and Notre Dame (No. 41 defense), Louisville has scored a total of 27 points. If Virginia limits/eliminates big plays – the pass coverage should be tested more than it was last week as Louisville has three dynamic receivers – then the Hoos should be able to keep the Cardinal offense in check.

I think Virginia’s defense will once again play well. That leaves the Cavalier offense to come through with a good performance. Virginia was able to break through against Duke, but will the unit be consistent and be able to convert red zone opportunities into touchdowns? Bryce Perkins and company should be able to move the ball against a Louisville defense that ranks 111th in total defense. Louisville is No. 56 in the nation in red zone defense, allowing the opponent to score 81.5% of the time, but 21 of the 22 scores have been touchdowns. Perhaps, that’s something the Cavalier offense can take advantage of.

Virginia only has five road wins in the Bronco Mendenhall era. However, the Hoos beat Pittsburgh at Pittsburgh to open this season and have been competitive on the road for the most part the past two seasons. Finishing off road games has been an issue – see Miami this season and Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech last November – but I think the Cavaliers will get the job done against its cross-division rival this Saturday. VIRGINIA 31, LOUISVILLE 21. Season To Date: 4-3.