We have reached the end of one of the most confounding college football seasons in recent history. Championship Saturday will be played without several traditional powers, including Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma. Instead, Cincinnati, Michigan, and Oklahoma State have opportunities to play their way into the College Football Playoff.
This weekend may lack some of the star power we are accustomed to seeing, but it should make for a fascinating end to the season. Of course, when you have bets placed, any game can be intriguing. Here are the best selections for conference title games this weekend.
Week 14 Best Selections
- Record to date: 30-36-3
We are finally back to making money after a 3-2-1 Week 13. With hardware on the line, it’s time to pull out all the stops.
Western Kentucky -2.5 at UTSA
The Roadrunners’ perfect season came to a screeching halt last week with a 22-point loss to North Texas. Will there be a hangover effect in the conference championship rematch against Western Kentucky? The first meeting in early October was a closely contested shootout in Bowling Green. Since the loss, Western Kentucky has won seven straight games and scored at least 40 points in six of these games. Most of these contests have been blowouts. In contrast, UTSA has close victories over two-win UNLV, UAB, Southern Mississippi, and Memphis. Close victories are often due to good fortune which tends to even out over time. I am afraid that UTSA’s luck may have run out last week.
Oklahoma State -5.5 vs. Baylor
Oklahoma State is next in line to make the College Football Playoff if it can take care of business in the Big 12 Championship. The Pokes beat Baylor by 10 points in Stillwater in early October thanks to a robust defensive effort. The Cowboys are elite defensively, holding teams to only 90.5 yards rushing (5th nationally) and 16.5 points per game (4th nationally). Baylor also has a question mark at quarterback; Gerry Bohanon was sidelined in the Bears’ final regular season game with a hamstring injury. His replacement, redshirt freshman Blake Shapen, was also briefly knocked out of the Texas Tech game after taking a brutal hit. If Bohanon cannot play or is limited in his ability to escape the pocket, Oklahoma State should win by more than a touchdown.
Pittsburgh -2.5 vs. Wake Forest
If you can mentally bear to watch an ACC Championship Game that was within Virginia’s grasp, you will be treated to an intriguing matchup of two elite offenses. Kenny Pickett and Sam Hartman will air the ball out and score points in what figures to be a back-and-forth game. I give the Panthers the edge because of their experience and ability to pressure the quarterback. Pittsburgh ranks second nationally in defensive sacks. Considering the potency of both offenses, being able to string together a couple stops could be enough to win the game. Pittsburgh is the team with the better defensive players.
Georgia -6.5 vs. Alabama
I have no doubt that Nick Saban will give Kirby Smart and Georgia their most difficult test of the season. Still, Alabama’s recent performances have left a lot to be desired. The Crimson Tide’s offense was completely shut out against Auburn for three quarters and needed four overtimes to eventually vanquish a .500 team with a back-up quarterback. Alabama also narrowly avoided home upsets against Arkansas and LSU in November. This is not the place you want to be when preparing for the best defense in college football. Georgia’s defense ranks first in the FBS in points per game (6.9), yards per game (240.5), and stopping teams from scoring in the red zone. Despite injuries at quarterback, the Bulldogs are also one of the nation’s most efficient passing teams, averaging nearly 10 yards per pass. Through 12 games, Georgia has faced only six offensive drives in the second half with a lead of less than 14 points. Five of these drives took place in the opening game against Clemson.
Kent State vs. Northern Illinois Under 74.5
In early November, Kent State and NIU played an exciting 52-47 game. As a result, this game has the highest point total on the board this week. Though both teams have impressive offenses and mediocre defenses, I think this total is inflated. Both defenses will be better prepared for this rematch. Northern Illinois’ best chance for keeping up with the Flashes’ fast tempo offense is to successfully run the ball and dominate time of possession. This game will still have plenty of scoring, but I expect it to be played in the sixties rather than the seventies.
Iowa +11 vs. Michigan
If ever there was an opportunity for an emotional letdown, this would be it for Michigan. After vanquishing Ohio State for the first time in nine years, the Wolverines are heavy favorites against an Iowa team that snuck into the Big 10 Championship Game thanks to a Wisconsin loss. The Hawkeyes have an established formula that avoids the need for exceptional play at quarterback. Iowa runs the ball on offense and forces turnovers on defense. In the last two years, Iowa is 14-1 in games where the quarterback has a passer rating of 100, an incredibly low bar to meet. I think Michigan ultimately gets the victory, but it will be hard-earned and tense down the stretch. Take the points.
Random Facts to Impress Your Fellow Tailgaters
Another year, another SEC Championship Game for Nick Saban and Alabama. However, the Crimson Tide will be in unfamiliar territory this week. After 92 consecutive games as a favorite, Alabama is a sportsbook underdog. This streak goes back to October 2, 2015, when Alabama was a one-point underdog at Georgia. The Tide won that game 38-10. Alabama has been favored in 164 out of its last 165 games. During that stretch, every other FBS team has been an underdog at least 15 times.
The SabreBetrics column is written by a Virginia graduate and long-time fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with TheSabre.com and are intended for recreational use only.
