Every Wednesday during the fall, SabreBetrics explores college football from an analytical sports betting perspective. So far this preseason, we have discussed programs that are likely to go over or under their Vegas projected win total. This week, we are looking at teams that have an opportunity to win their divisions and conferences.
Sports betting is not just about choosing which team you think is best. It’s also about finding value – situations where the probability of an event happening is greater than what is suggested by the odds. Let’s use Ohio State as an example. The Buckeyes are one of the most talented teams in the country and are significant favorites to win the Big Ten. You will impress none of your friends if you predict that Ohio State will be successful this year.
But is there value in betting on Ohio State to win the conference? Currently, the Buckeyes are listed at -320 to win the Big Ten East division. This means that to win $100, you would need to stake $320 dollars. Placing this bet requires you to take on a lot of personal risk for a minimal payout. A single unexpected loss to Michigan could potentially be enough to doom this wager. I tend to avoid heavy favorites for this reason; the risk is simply not worth it.
At the same time, you don’t want to place wagers on teams that have virtually no chance of contending. Betting on Rutgers (+20,000) to win the Big Ten East (over Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, and Penn State) is likely a waste of money. Thus, the goal is to find undervalued teams that have the returning talent and favorable schedule to make a run at a conference championship. You need to thread the needle between value and feasibility.
Conference bets are a fun way to diversify your gambling portfolio. It gives you multiple rooting interests every weekend. It also presents you with possible opportunities to “hedge” if your bet is viable in the last weeks of the season to ensure a profit. Without further ado, here are six conference bets you should consider before the season gets underway. Note: The vig will vary between different sportsbooks.
Conference Bets
Utah to win the Pac-12 Championship (+240): USC is the slight betting favorite to win the Pac-12 after receiving significant media attention following the arrival of head coach Lincoln Riley. This has allowed No. 8 Utah, the reigning conference champion, to fly under the radar.
Kyle Whittingham’s teams are usually built around stalwart defenses, but this year’s squad appears to be an offensive powerhouse. All-conference first-team quarterback Cameron Rising returns as one of the most efficient passers in the country. In addition to ranking sixth nationally in total QBR last season, Rising rushed for 6.7 yards per carry and 6 touchdowns. He is surrounded by talented, experienced players, including running back Tavion Thomas, NFL-ready wideout Devaughn Vele, and two tight ends in Dalton Kincaid and Brant Kuithe that combined for 86 catches, 1,121 receiving yards, and 14 touchdowns last year.
Outside of a trip to Oregon in November, the Utes have a manageable conference schedule, and get to host the Trojans in October. This could be a deciding game in capturing a bid to the conference championship game.
Fresno State to win the MWC Championship (+240): The Bulldogs, one of my “over” selections two weeks ago, are the odds-on favorite to win the Mountain West Conference West division. They return 15 starters from a 10-win team, including talented quarterback Jake Haener who threw for over 4,000 yards and 33 touchdowns in 2021.
The departure of head coach Kalen DeBoer is ameliorated by the return of Jeff Tedford, who revitalized the program during his first tenure from 2017 to 2019. The stiffest competition in the division is likely to come from San Diego State, but Fresno State hosts them in late October. Assuming the Bulldogs can take care of business within the division, they should be well-positioned to face-off against Boise State or Air Force in the championship.
Houston to win the AAC Championship (+250): Sportsbooks have listed three teams as the front runners for the American Athletic Conference title: Cincinnati, UCF, and Houston. The Cougars benefit from not having to play the other two teams during the regular season. Fifth-year quarterback Clayton Tune returns to lead an offense that averaged over 35 points per game in 2021. The Houston defense was even better, finishing ninth nationally in yards per game allowed and first in defending against third down conversions. Dana Holgorsen may not have quite as much talent compared to last year’s 12-win team, but he should be able to navigate the Cougars to the title game.
Toledo to win the MAC Championship (+380): Toledo has the longest odds of any conference favorite in college football. The Rockets produced a stellar defense in 2021, allowing an average of only 4.7 yards per play (13th nationally). Eight defensive starters return including senior linebacker Jamal Hines, who recorded 10 sacks a season ago. The offense figures to improve as well with sophomore quarterback Dequan Finn in his second year at the helm. Despite an impressive 9-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio as a freshman, Finn’s inexperience was evident at critical junctures of the season. As a result, Toledo lost three Mid-American Conference games by a combined 8 points. With more experience at skill positions, I’m betting that the bad luck from last year will be corrected in 2022.
NC State to win the ACC Atlantic (+500): After having its six-year streak of ACC Championships snapped in 2021, Clemson is once again a heavy favorite to emerge from the Atlantic division. At -240, the Tigers have an implied probability of winning the division 70.6% of the time. That number is way too high given the amount of returning production from other schools in the division.
NC State brings back 17 starters from a 9-win team that came within a field goal of winning the Atlantic last year. The Wolfpack’s success was driven by one of the best defenses in the country and 13 of the 15 defensive players who recorded at least 250 snaps in 2021 return this season. On the other side of the ball, quarterback Devin Leary is a dark horse Heisman contender coming off a season with 35 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions. This is Dave Doeren’s most talented team in the 10 years he has been in Raleigh. With 5-to-1 odds, there’s a lot of value in betting on the Wolfpack to breakthrough to the title game.
Kansas State to win the Big 12 (+1200): If you’re looking for a conference longshot, I recommend the Wildcats. Kansas State should have a dangerous ground game between running back Deuce Vaughn and the scrambling ability of transfer quarterback Adrian Martinez. Though Martinez was frequently criticized for his decision-making and winning percentage at Nebraska, he has 38 appearances under his belt and ranks seventh in Big 10 history for career rushing yards by a quarterback.
Every other contending team has significant question marks:
- Oklahoma has a first-time coach and major transfer churn.
- Texas had a poor defense in 2021 and could be starting a true freshman at quarterback.
- Baylor returns only 12 starters and has the most difficult schedule in the conference.
- Oklahoma State has only 4 returning starters back from a great defensive unit and is replacing coordinator Jim Knowles.
With home games against Texas and Baylor in November, Kansas State could play its way into the championship game if it can stay healthy.
Next week, we will explore betting for player awards including the Heisman Trophy. Until then, sound off in the comments with your season conference predictions!
SabreBetrics is a Virginia graduate and longtime fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can reasonably afford to lose.
